TimeformUS

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cj

Yes, that is the goal and I think we've accomplished that, and so does Timeform.

I personally never thought the Beyer/Timeform adjustment was very good, it was too crude, but there were better ones if you put in the work.

The biggest need that I have is bridging the gap with the Euros. Maybe you would consider the Arlington Million card with a lot of Euros for a demo? If it works then we can prepare for the Breeders' Cup.

Is DRF a partner in this?

[Tom]

I've been using the one he doesn't like since Invasor (he ees the best!) won the Pimlico Special and made money over the years. If there is a better one now, start preparing.

The two BCs at SA, on poly - did very well.

[speed]

Originally Posted by cj

Have some patience, its early in the process.

Good to hear.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The biggest need that I have is bridging the gap with the Euros. Maybe you would consider the Arlington Million card with a lot of Euros for a demo? If it works then we can prepare for the Breeders' Cup.

Is DRF a partner in this?

It already has worked. I'll pull up the Arlington Park card from last year as a demo when I get some time (and I have no idea how he figures turned out results wise). Might be a little slow, did something stupid yesterday and injured my eye, but I'll get it done.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

I've been using the one he doesn't like since Invasor (he ees the best!) won the Pimlico Special and made money over the years. If there is a better one now, start preparing.

The two BCs at SA, on poly - did very well.

Even that wasn't the straightforward -14 adjustment, it changed depending on the range of the figure and the age of the horses.

[Tom]

Yeah, I
kept up on the evolution of the adjustment.
It was good enough to put several horses close enough so that a 10-1 caught my eye along with the 2-1.

[PhantomOnTour]

I would have won that Pim Special if they had DQ'd Invasor - didn't he come over on someone in the stretch?

EDIT: now I remember - Ramon claimed foul the race before and it was upheld (costing me a 9-1 winner under Norby Arroyo) and then foul was claimed against Ramon and Invasor (in the Pim Spcl) and it was denied.
He came over on West Virginia and caused him to check in the stretch - who rode WV that race?
You got it - Norby Arroyo
OUCH

[andicap]

For all of those out there who are unsure if they want to use this new product -- for any reason at all: Please DONT use it. Please let the smallest number of people keep the best figures I have ever seen to ourselves. After all, this is a competitive game.

Don't like the interface? No sweat. Feel free to keep using what you have now. I'm sure it works fine for you.

Don't like the lack of printing? Use something that WILL print.

I implore you NOT to use Craig's figures. Stay with what you're used to. This will only confuse you.

Al, I beg of you. Stay with BRIS. It's fine. Nothing new to see here.
Raybo, You're right. Do yourself a favor. Don't subscribe.



(P.S. -- Glad to see you back here, Marc. I knew it was only a matter of time before CJ went "wide." A brilliant move on your part. Best of luck.)

[raybo]

Originally Posted by andicap

For all of those out there who are unsure if they want to use this new product -- for any reason at all: Please DONT use it. Please let the smallest number of people keep the best figures I have ever seen to ourselves. After all, this is a competitive game.

Don't like the interface? No sweat. Feel free to keep using what you have now. I'm sure it works fine for you.

Don't like the lack of printing? Use something that WILL print.

I implore you NOT to use Craig's figures. Stay with what you're used to. This will only confuse you.

Al, I beg of you. Stay with BRIS. It's fine. Nothing new to see here.
Raybo, You're right. Do yourself a favor. Don't subscribe.



(P.S. -- Glad to see you back here, Marc. I knew it was only a matter of time before CJ went "wide." A brilliant move on your part. Best of luck.)

Since you mentioned my name, exclusively, as one who doesn't like the fact that they are not currently offering data files, I want to make one thing clear. CJ's figs, from what I have been able to ascertain, are indeed the best available. My only problem with using this thing, as it is, is that too many will begin to use those figs as they are currently presented. That cannot be good for the long term value of those figs. So, in affect, I am already preparing for the possibility of them being overbet by the public, and the resulting loss of value on those horses.

Your "tongue-in-cheek" shot at those of us who already see what will probably happen to the value of having such static access to CJ's figs, should be a real concern of yours, and all the other, fortunate, users of those figures. If I were one of the long time users of them, I would be extremely concerned that all my previous expenditures and success with them might be seriously endangered by going "public" in this way.

I try to stay ahead of the competition, so I'm already hoping that data files will be part of the offering, so the value of those figures will not become valueless in the future, for me (yes, my wishes are selfish ones, that's the nature of a paramutuel system). In the current offering, I can't help but think that CJ's figures will quickly become like the Beyers, unprofitable, without the ability to combine them in ways that the public as a whole cannot, thus preserving their value.

I'm not knocking the product, I'm just concerned that they haven't thought this thing through completely (I'm especially surprised that CJ is allowing this, unless it's strictly for the money he will receive for his participation in the venture), and should proceed very carefully.

No offense to CJ or Timeform intended, just expressing concerns I have, and would have if I were in CJ's position.

And, by the way, I don't use any Brisnet figures at all, as they are not anywhere close to being of any value to me. But, if I had access to CJ's figs, in a data file format, you can bet I'd be using them, in one way or another. An accurate odds line comes to mind!

[classhandicapper]

I think the general tendency has been for prices on "figure" horses to decline long term, but I have not seen a lot of evidence that handicappers using the same figures tend to bet most of the same horses. There's still a lot of diversity of opinion.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think the general tendency has been for prices on "figure" horses to decline long term, but I have not seen a lot of evidence that handicappers using the same figures tend to bet most of the same horses.

So, how do you explain what happened to the Beyers?

[cj]

Originally Posted by raybo

So, how do you explain what happened to the Beyers?

When Beyers first were published, they were the first quality figure readily available to the public. That has changed a lot. All the figures provided now are at least pretty good, much better than the old DRF rating, with or without + SV.

Figure making is definitely an art. I think I do the best job possible with the information we are given today. But when there is subjectivity, opinions will vary, and that is of course true amongst figure makers. No matter how good a job I do, I won't get them all right, and neither will Beyer, Thorograph, Ragozin, BRIS, Equibase, etc. My personal opinion is that those using humans (not BRIS, Equibase) will be better long term, but not all the time.

Anyway, my point was I don't think it is just Beyer figures that drove prices down. It is a bunch of quality figures making the game easier to identify contenders than it ever was before. More that that, it is the state of racing today. Small fields and uncompetitive races are making the job of picking winners easier than ever before.

Figures alone are never going to beat the game any longer. But having the best ones available will help in the handicapping process. TimeformUS is providing plenty of other stuff in that regard as well. This isn't just about my figures.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think the thing about Beyers are they are final time only and that doesn't get it done,nor IMO does a performance figure.Looking at a complete race array of figures,it took me a while with the help of Quinn's Figure Handicapping and Fotias' work,plus my own experience to get a handle on it,but it far exceeds the value of final time only.I think the Bris and Equibase figures just have too many flaws in them.Inflated figures by obviously bad horses.Races that look too competitive.I'm not here to be a tout for CJ but in comparing different figures,there is no comparison.

Last year I bet I'm A Dreamer and Afsare on the Arlington Million card(1st-2nd).The last few years I've been more interested in understanding the class structure of European race,so this piques my interest.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by andicap

For all of those out there who are unsure if they want to use this new product -- for any reason at all: Please DONT use it. Please let the smallest number of people keep the best figures I have ever seen to ourselves. After all, this is a competitive game.

Don't like the interface? No sweat. Feel free to keep using what you have now. I'm sure it works fine for you.

Don't like the lack of printing? Use something that WILL print.

I implore you NOT to use Craig's figures. Stay with what you're used to. This will only confuse you.

Al, I beg of you. Stay with BRIS. It's fine. Nothing new to see here.
Raybo, You're right. Do yourself a favor. Don't subscribe.



(P.S. -- Glad to see you back here, Marc. I knew it was only a matter of time before CJ went "wide." A brilliant move on your part. Best of luck.)

Suitable for framing.

[Robert Goren]

My question is where are you going to get the raw times. Will you use the Equibase times like everybody else or will you some how get other times like from Trackus or time the races yourself?