New York Showcase Day

[PhantomOnTour]

Some very nice races today, notably the Kingston (R8) and the Commentator (R9).

The Kingston seems a bit like a two horse race between the #4 Dakota Gold and #6 City Man (winless at Bel), but I'm going to try to get a longshot home in the #8 Citizen K.
Yes, the 4-6 are very formidable back in with NY breds and it will be tough to beat them both...BUTS...the #8 is very sharp right now and rates a chance to split them in my book. He finished up his 2022 campaign with a nice effort at Sar and blew away a field at Aqu on Apr13 in his 2023 debut. He did coast through a slowish 1/2m but then powered home. Good worktab since with a bullet on May22 tells me he is holding his form for De Paz.
No lasix today, class hike also, Manny needs to work out a trip from the 8 hole, but I will trust solid connections on a lightly raced horse & hope he can improve again.
Ex: 4-6 w 8
Win: 8

In the Commentator, I will take a shot with #10 Ouster, ridden by Dylan Davis, who is starting to heat up after a slump. Will use with the 1-3-6-7, although I'm a bit sour on the ML chalk #1 horse. Yeah, he faced the big boys last out, but went on the bench for over two months after six straight wins. Came back flat even though he faced much tougher, and I wonder if he's a bit over the top. Will still use, but sparingly.

Great card !
Good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Citizen K is not ready for this company - bad pick.

Ouster is overbet in the Commentator at 5-2. Maybe the improving #7 Olympic Dreams can get some at nice odds of 23-1.
I'll bet about $6 on him since it's been a terrible day at the windows for me.

Ex: 1-3-5-10 w 7
Win: 7

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Citizen K is not ready for this company - bad pick.

Ouster is overbet in the Commentator at 5-2. Maybe the improving #7 Olympic Dreams can get some at nice odds of 23-1.
I'll bet about $6 on him since it's been a terrible day at the windows for me.

Ex: 1-3-5-10 w 7
Win: 7

Loses a photo to the #6 - been that kind of day.

It's a tough game

[SBD400]

Good call on Olympic Dreams and I agree Ouster was incredibly overbet.

One of my cardinal rules is if I like a horse at a nice price, if they run well make sure to cash something. In the case of your bet on Olympic Dreams, he ran great, just missed the win but even so paid $19.60 to place and $11.80 to show. I always play longshots WPS at a minimum. So you had a great opinion, you were mostly right but didn’t cash anything. Just my .02 cents, not a criticism of you.

Was a great day of racing for sure. I thought Collaboration in the 5th got robbed, terrible disqualification. I see far worse then that and the stewards do nothing.

[soflant]

I am wondering if anyone has some sort of clue on how to successfully handicap Allowance Optional Claiming Races? These are the most difficult for me. Some horses can be claimed while others cannot be claimed. This hybrid type of race drives me crazy. Which horses are preferred the claiming or the non claiming horses? Thanks in advance.

[SBD400]

It depends, sometimes horses are in for the optional tag because the price too high and they won't get claimed, but frequently those are longshots with no chance. Other times they are in for a tag because they don't have conditions left and this is where they can get a race, a lot of times those are hard knockers that have lots of back class too.


I think in these kind of races you need to understand the condition of the race well, that will tell you why the horses are in it and go from there.These days most allowance races beyond entry level are optional claimers to get the races to fill.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by SBD400

Good call on Olympic Dreams and I agree Ouster was incredibly overbet.

One of my cardinal rules is if I like a horse at a nice price, if they run well make sure to cash something. In the case of your bet on Olympic Dreams, he ran great, just missed the win but even so paid $19.60 to place and $11.80 to show. I always play longshots WPS at a minimum. So you had a great opinion, you were mostly right but didn’t cash anything. Just my .02 cents, not a criticism of you.

Was a great day of racing for sure. I thought Collaboration in the 5th got robbed, terrible disqualification. I see far worse then that and the stewards do nothing.

Thanks - I'm just not a place/show bettor. I use the exacta as my place bet (thank you Dave Litfin) and never bet to show.
What's worse is that I had the #6 in my original run down of the race, but got stupid and opted for Barese instead on my ticket.
Decisions, decisions...

Agree about the DQ. IMO Ortiz pulled left on his rein and met Collaboration halfway on that shoulder bump.