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Old 05-09-2023, 10:16 AM   #46
burnsy
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Out for the Preakness
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Old 05-09-2023, 11:25 AM   #47
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So much for my Preakness pick. That is pretty much how I have always picked the Preakness off the Derby chart and watching the race, and it has worked, oh well.

Last edited by Inner Dirt; 05-09-2023 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 05-09-2023, 11:48 AM   #48
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Didn’t those faders finish where most handicappers thought they would, regardless of what the expected pace was going to be? Going into the race how many “professionals” were touting Jaces Road, Kingsbarn, or Reincarnate?

Verifying would be the outlier, I can understand them wanting to use speed from their inside draw to get position but not to that extent.

Speed and stalking types were what played best all week in dirt races at CD too, exact trip that Two Phil’s got. The horse ran a good race but let’s wait awhile for his coronation.


You are on the right track (I mean from my perspective, maybe from you're perspective you're 100% perfect and this post from me is nonsense. Either way, cool).

I believe in doing multiple flow/setup charts;
One is the pure flow of the race.

Another incorporates the odds and perhaps my own certain opinions[ (eg, I perssonally expected Kingsbarns to attend the pace and quit, others felt he would rate forward in the 2nd group rather than the pace, and some thought he was a contender - hey, he was 4th choice in odds. - so for my flow that incorporates odds, i treat Kingsbarns as a longshot that should fade).

And then another incorporates the pace fractions .

the most powerful/definitive cases will be when all your significant flow models are agreeing and moving in the same direction.


pure flow? = moderate/severe Pace Collapse

odds/opinions? = a bit unclear... Verifying has been a hard-hitter & has a supertrainer stamina but he didn't appear to 'fire'. Pace hurt him and he also quit a bit earlier than expected. Was it 100% pace adversity?? Reincarnate is a fraud, but he's not a quitter. Also mild supertrainer, He ran his race but the pace definitely was the factor that wilted him. Angel of Empire closed well but was expected. Top 3 finishers were hindsight favored. unclear but probably a hot pace.

pace/fractions = Very hot pace. '160' timeformUS first fraction '143' 2nd fraction. Hotter than anything in the major preps.

Conclusion - it was a hot pace, and probably blunted some of Phil's run. Can upgrade Phil somewhat. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade Mage or Angel of Empire. I don't like Reincarnate or Kingsbarns but Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, Verifying are all tough in the right spots.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-09-2023 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 05-09-2023, 12:07 PM   #49
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Exactly right Tom . People don’t understand that the pace can cause many in the front to fade . Watch , the horses you mentioned in the last paragraph are going to win major stakes races as the summer schedule opens up . The Derby is a race of its own and these horses are basically rookies . The horse that’s being made second choice ( First Mission ) in the Preakness . Has three races under his belt . It’s really hard to draw any conclusions from the derby . Last years winner (Rich Strike) was up the track Friday and hasn’t win since the Derby . Career wins =2.
Trying to categorize these horses after the wacky ways that race goes is kind of fruitless. There are years where the flow is suicide for any horse near the front . You may get a placing but winning is pretty much out .

Last edited by burnsy; 05-09-2023 at 12:09 PM.
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Old 05-09-2023, 01:04 PM   #50
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You are on the right track (I mean from my perspective, maybe from you're perspective you're 100% perfect and this post from me is nonsense. Either way, cool).

I believe in doing multiple flow/setup charts;
One is the pure flow of the race.

Another incorporates the odds and perhaps my own certain opinions[ (eg, I perssonally expected Kingsbarns to attend the pace and quit, others felt he would rate forward in the 2nd group rather than the pace, and some thought he was a contender - hey, he was 4th choice in odds. - so for my flow that incorporates odds, i treat Kingsbarns as a longshot that should fade).

And then another incorporates the pace fractions .

the most powerful/definitive cases will be when all your significant flow models are agreeing and moving in the same direction.


pure flow? = moderate/severe Pace Collapse

odds/opinions? = a bit unclear... Verifying has been a hard-hitter & has a supertrainer stamina but he didn't appear to 'fire'. Pace hurt him and he also quit a bit earlier than expected. Was it 100% pace adversity?? Reincarnate is a fraud, but he's not a quitter. Also mild supertrainer, He ran his race but the pace definitely was the factor that wilted him. Angel of Empire closed well but was expected. Top 3 finishers were hindsight favored. unclear but probably a hot pace.

pace/fractions = Very hot pace. '160' timeformUS first fraction '143' 2nd fraction. Hotter than anything in the major preps.

Conclusion - it was a hot pace, and probably blunted some of Phil's run. Can upgrade Phil somewhat. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade Mage or Angel of Empire. I don't like Reincarnate or Kingsbarns but Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, Verifying are all tough in the right spots.
Have to think Cox told Gaffalione to make the front with Verifying and see how far he'll carry you. He broke well but so did those to his outside, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate and Jace's Road, ones that everyone thought would show early pace. After an 1/8th of a mile or so there starts some separation of the front pack back to Confidence Game and Two Phil's. It's at that point I would have thought Gaffalione let's the others and just sits on the rail or two wide. Obviously this is hindsight and obviously he didn't. Just a strange tactic.

When looking at Two Phil's and the trip he got, pace aside, they couldn't have asked for a better trip. Broke clean, settled nicely off the front pack, set a pocket trip up the backside. Came around a tiring Verifying midway on the turn, rail run past Kingsbarns and the lead just before the 1/4 pole. Fast pace aside it's hard to find a better trip, from an inside post, in the Derby.
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Old 05-12-2023, 06:23 PM   #51
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I just pretend he's got one owner of Italian descent & "Two Phil" is his neighborhood nickname:
I think I can make that work in my head!
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Old 05-28-2023, 11:52 AM   #52
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No Preakness, no Belmont for Two Phil's - they are pointing to the Ohio Derby
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Old 05-28-2023, 12:25 PM   #53
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No Preakness, no Belmont for Two Phil's - they are pointing to the Ohio Derby
Wow.

Think they are pointing towards The Haskell after the Ohio Derby, and then maybe the Travers. A bit odd, but kind of makes sense in this new age of racing.

Little doubt he didn't come out of the KY Derby all that well.
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Old 05-28-2023, 03:22 PM   #54
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Little doubt he didn't come out of the KY Derby all that well.
He's worked twice since the Derby including a bullet work this morning...
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Old 05-28-2023, 07:22 PM   #55
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He's worked twice since the Derby including a bullet work this morning...
And after those works following a 2nd in the KY Derby, he'll skip both the Preakness and Belmont for the.....Ohio Derby.
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Old 05-28-2023, 09:53 PM   #56
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And after those works following a 2nd in the KY Derby, he'll skip both the Preakness and Belmont for the.....Ohio Derby.
I'm as disgusted as you are, maybe even more so because it appears he did come out of the Derby well.

Rivelli mentioned he was aiming towards the Haskell/Travers after he shipped back to
Chicago a day after the Derby which tipped his hand that he had no interest in the Preakness.

Today's news about skipping the Belmont is no surprise, either. They mentioned they were targeting either the Ohio Derby or the Matt Winn over a week ago. No mention of the Belmont as a possible target.

He didn't skipped the Preakness because the horse is doing poorly, he skipped it because he's drunk the Kool-Aid of so called "modern" trainers who think running back on 2 weeks rest in the Preakness is too intense.

Of course, Rivelli has no problem running many of his other horses back on 2 weeks rest, especially the claimers that he's dumping in price.
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