The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) $1,500,000 Saturday June 10

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Ralph - I was trying to be some what funny. Thought the head against the brick wall fit. My friend uses the same track as part of his handicapping, more for separation when a couple horses figure very close. If one of them had a race over the track, he will lean that way. I loved the Arrogate breeding of this horse. For those who use thorograph, he also had the best last number, which was a 1. The only other who had run a 1 was Tapit Trice two races back. The only question was will he regress off the 1 or move forward again. If he moves forward or even equals the 1, he bests this field. I know the sheets guys look for patterns and not just best last but Arch 1-5, Angel 2-2, Forte 3-2, Hit Show 3-4 and Tapit Trice 5-1 were the best numbers. I moved tapit up a couple spots in case he ran back to the 1 two races back.I had Archangel and Angel of Empire as my live horses to cash the 2 day pick6 for $244. I also flat bet Arch to cover the difference in probable payouts. I did not hit the exacta, tri or super because I keyed Tapit and Forte in those as "insurance" as some like to call it.I had the race covered from all angles and lucky for me, i caught what was probably the best payout of them all. Not earth shattering by any means, but I did only invest $6.40 in the 2 day pick6. Single on Cody's wish and Up to The Mark.

[Bullet Plane]

Of the three triple crown events. I thought Arcangelo looked the best. He is the top dog now until proven otherwise. The fast pace Detby proved zero, the slow paced Preakness zero, but the Belmont was the goods!

The Belmont had a normal race flow.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Of the three triple crown events. I thought Arcangelo looked the best. He is the top dog now until proven otherwise. The fast pace Detby proved zero, the slow paced Preakness zero, but the Belmont was the goods!

The Belmont had a normal race flow.

yea?
I respect your opinion here. My general feeling is that fast paces and pace-meltdowns tell us more about the forwardly placed horses and early movers than the closers.

I'm a fan of Arcangelo, The Belmont winner now. Yet to be seen how fast he wants to go, but we know he can go far, and that he can benefit from the type of pace we may see in a race like The Travers.

Rewarding Triple Crown series this year for those willing to do all the work and not cut corners and trip handicap.

Could also be argued that use of a 'key' horse as well as some coverage was rewarded (each race has been contested and without a 'lock' type of winner, but with logical horses in the Trifecta).

[Publius]

Setting up for excellent running's of Jim Dandy & Travers.

31 days until Opening Day.

[Maximillion]

Imo all three legs were ripe for an upsetter.I landed on the wrong ones each time.....if I were the connections of the Japanese horses I would strongly consider bringing them back

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

Imo all three legs were ripe for an upsetter.I landed on the wrong ones each time.....if I were the connections of the Japanese horses I would strongly consider bringing them back

I don't think this crop is particularly good at this stage.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

No slight on Castellano in the Belmont as Arcangelo was expertly handled while eager & loaded throughout, but I have to say 'mission accomplished' to Flavien Prat with the blinkers on for Angel of Empire.

Those blinkers really aided Prat's brilliant strategy to hustle the horse strongly from the gate to secure a 7-wide stalking position going into the first turn. Never mind that stablemate Tapit Shoes was similarly sent from the bell as rabbit to immediately harry the speedy National Treasure up front.

At that point the plan apparently was to switch the horse off & let him get shuffled back to 7th entering the backstretch. Prat then wisely gave him his head again & allowed the horse to pull his way back to an up close spot to keep the pressure on his 2 stablemates lest they fail to keep National Treasure honest.

Time for another breather heading to 5/8s pole, where Prat cannily took the opportunity for a quick goggle change which I'm sure was critical despite the fact that the horse had been wide and in the clear up to that point. Little known fact but the kickback at Belmont originates spontaneously from the ground at all times unlike other tracks which require a galloping horse's hind hooves to send dirt clods flying into horses silly enough to be sitting directly behind another. This is because the dirt for the Belmont main track is sourced from the deserts of Mexico (hence 'Big Sandy') and is infested with jumping beans...

From there, Prat just needed to sit & wait for another genius to go all in so that he had his cue to make his bid. That came from the back courtesy of Luis Saez on Tapit Trice in an apparent nod to the brilliant ride perpetrated by Kent Desormeaux on Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont Stakes (it was the 25th anniversary of that race, didn't you know?). Prat did not hesitate to match strides with that ill-timed move, which came with well over a half mile left to run.

Angel of Empire now found himself in between horses after all that effort to keep him in the clear. This is where the blinkers ended up being a life saver, as he was now unable to look either of his rivals in the eye as they slugged it out down the lane. This ensured that Prat was able to pull off his cunning plan...to see the Kentucky Derby form completely reversed as Hit Show & Tapit Trice made up the 5 & 7 lengths respectively they needed on Angel of Empire at Churchill Downs.

I take it you didn't like the ride? It didn't matter much to me because once Forte hit the board I was done, but I wasn't thrilled with that ride either. I thought they moved too early too.

The races seemed to be developing more to the outside. So maybe some of the riders thought those were the best paths. It was one of those days at Belmont where I didn't see clear evidence the rail was bad (the winner was inside) even though the races were developing more to the outside and some of the riders seemed to being avoiding the rail.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I take it you didn't like the ride? It didn't matter much to me because once Forte hit the board I was done, but I wasn't thrilled with that ride either. I thought they moved too early too.

The races seemed to be developing more to the outside. So maybe some of the riders thought those were the best paths. It was one of those days at Belmont where I didn't see clear evidence the rail was bad (the winner was inside) even though the races were developing more to the outside and some of the riders seemed to being avoiding the rail.

I hesitate to give Prat or Saez the credit that they even considered any track bias on Saturday. Prat stupidly wanted blinkers on a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, Cox stupidly obliged, & then Prat didn't even have the consideration to ride a nuanced race. Just hustled, stuck him up close, sat wide without cover, and then went all-in in response to some other fool who doesn't even know the poles at Belmont (Saez post-race said he moved Tapit Trice at the 3/8s pole...no moron, it was the 5/8s).

The saddest thing of all is that Angel of Empire & Tapit Trice skipped the Preakness in order to be re-charged for their best efforts in the Belmont only to get ineptly ridden by cretins.

What a waste.

All that aside, the biggest Triple Crown dunce has to be Larry Rivelli. Could Two Phil's conceivably have won the Preakness & Belmont if you transposed his Derby run onto those races? If he was in Blazing Sevens spot in the Preakness would he have been good enough to put away an unsoftened National Treasure? Arcangelo basically won the Belmont with a similar trip as Two Phil's in the Derby. That could have been him on Saturday sitting under a snug hold waiting to slip up the inside and blowing the race open.

Hope he's at least getting some sort of appearance fee or kickback for sending the horse to Thistledown instead...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I hesitate to give Prat or Saez the credit that they even considered any track bias on Saturday. Prat stupidly wanted blinkers on a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, Cox stupidly obliged, & then Prat didn't even have the consideration to ride a nuanced race. Just hustled, stuck him up close, sat wide without cover, and then went all-in in response to some other fool who doesn't even know the poles at Belmont (Saez post-race said he moved Tapit Trice at the 3/8s pole...no moron, it was the 5/8s).

The saddest thing of all is that Angel of Empire & Tapit Trice skipped the Preakness in order to be re-charged for their best efforts in the Belmont only to get ineptly ridden by cretins.

What a waste.

All that aside, the biggest Triple Crown dunce has to be Larry Rivelli. Could Two Phil's conceivably have won the Preakness & Belmont if you transposed his Derby run onto those races? If he was in Blazing Sevens spot in the Preakness would he have been good enough to put away an unsoftened National Treasure? Arcangelo basically won the Belmont with a similar trip as Two Phil's in the Derby. That could have been him on Saturday sitting under a snug hold waiting to slip up the inside and blowing the race open.

Hope he's at least getting some sort of appearance fee or kickback for sending the horse to Thistledown instead...

I can't disagree with anything you are saying.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not bagging on you, and it almost always seems this way, but the racing public always seems to fawn over the good ol' days of the 70s and 80s.

We had damn good horses in the 90s and 2000's. The significant drop off in horses being unable to race more than at least once a month is a 2015 or so forward phenomenon.

In 2013, we had Will Take Charge run in all 3 Triple Crown races, the Jim Dandy, Travers, and BC Classic. Granted, that is old school trainer D Wayne Lukas, but that simply doesn't happen less than a decade later. 2014 we had California Chrome that ran 9 times as a 3YO and nearly won the Triple Crown. 2015 we had American Pharoah and Frosted and Keen Ice. 2016 we had Gun Runner. And that is about where it died.

No worries about bagging on me - that's part of the game, and part of an online forum.

It's difficult to get excited about the Triple Crown these days, when you know there will be no great rivalry (2 or more great horses), and maybe only one decent 3YO horse in the spring. This year I believe only Mage hit the board in two of the Triple Crown races, with the other finishers just hitting the board once. I hope to see a couple of them move forward and make a good race out of the BC Classic, but which horses may do that are a mystery at this point - at least for me. Maybe next year we'll get a freaky crop, and three or four very good to great horses.....

My opinion is the game started going downhill pretty fast in the early 1990s, but maybe we're just splitting hairs. The last few years the decline has appeared to accelerate, which may be a reflection of the underlying economics. As a sport, things are going in the wrong direction. The last 2YO I got excited about was Vindication back in 2002, and I don't think he started as a 3YO. I thought he was something special, but part of that may be related to catching a bet or two on a promising horse early. There have been some decent horses now and then over the last 30 years, and California Chrome was one of them - I also liked (and bet on) Frosted, but at least he's having some success as a sire.

I'm of the opinion there's a pretty dark cloud hanging over the two Baffert Triple Crown winners. Outside of the Triple Crown, I was also never a fan of the Great Cigar, though he was consistent - but I don't think he beat much. Which of course wasn't his fault, but there was a pretty bad dry spell of talent in that timeframe. There are still some great performances here and there, but less consistency in expectations. I'd be okay with scaling back the 2YO and 3YO stakes calendar if that in turn led to an overall improvement in racing, but I don't see that happening.

Things are always changing, and being older and remembering when some things were better can be the proverbial blessing and a curse.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I hesitate to give Prat or Saez the credit that they even considered any track bias on Saturday. Prat stupidly wanted blinkers on a horse that nearly won the Kentucky Derby, Cox stupidly obliged, & then Prat didn't even have the consideration to ride a nuanced race. Just hustled, stuck him up close, sat wide without cover, and then went all-in in response to some other fool who doesn't even know the poles at Belmont (Saez post-race said he moved Tapit Trice at the 3/8s pole...no moron, it was the 5/8s).

The saddest thing of all is that Angel of Empire & Tapit Trice skipped the Preakness in order to be re-charged for their best efforts in the Belmont only to get ineptly ridden by cretins.

What a waste.

All that aside, the biggest Triple Crown dunce has to be Larry Rivelli. Could Two Phil's conceivably have won the Preakness & Belmont if you transposed his Derby run onto those races? If he was in Blazing Sevens spot in the Preakness would he have been good enough to put away an unsoftened National Treasure? Arcangelo basically won the Belmont with a similar trip as Two Phil's in the Derby. That could have been him on Saturday sitting under a snug hold waiting to slip up the inside and blowing the race open.

Hope he's at least getting some sort of appearance fee or kickback for sending the horse to Thistledown instead...

After just watching the Derby Two Phils was my Preakness horse, when he didn't run I didn't bother betting, and in the Belmont either.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

My opinion is the game started going downhill pretty fast in the early 1990s, but maybe we're just splitting hairs.
.

I had a bonfire and drank myself stupid in 1993. That is when Beyer sold his figures to the Racing Form. I had notebooks of variants and charts plus a closet full of Racing Forms. I spent an hour plus everyday making figures. I lit it all on fire while drinking and cussing up a storm.