PACE/SPEED/ ***CLASS***

[ezpace]

Enjoy many comments made here by software type pace /speed guys.along with most of the others .thanks

I have been interested for some time of how many pace/speed handicappers here who use the software of their choce for determining such,, also use CLASS in their contender and final adjustments for conternders.

I've made and used SPEED figs and the last 6 years PACE figs in my selections but having been doing this since i was 16 (decades ago) I still ,,,,after determning my pace/ speed / performance #'s for contenders I always look at the horses previous class levels in the final analysis and add subract points.

SOme say PACE/SPEED and a performance number is all the class/conditions you need. I don't believe this.I use CJ's figures for 75% of the races now along with another "private" set for alowance/stake TURF RACES..... The private set has a recent class number which i manipulate by adding points to it for superior consistent EP #'s and a proprietary # of points for how tuff previous races close to the distance and surface were. Some what like Willaim Scott does.

This provides some nice priced horses for a ex/tri/super player like myself and also **ELIMINATES** some public short price horses. I've also started to do this with CJ's Performance number ..rewarding..

Does anyone else here make an adjusted class #number to go along with Pace/speed/performance #numbers ' and what software do you use/ please .

[sjk]

I use my own software. I have never found any value-added from using a class measure and do not use one.

Of course if you throw enough adjustments into adjusted speed and pace figures the class of the race may be reflected in an indirect way; in my program it is not used in any direct way.

[Kreed]

i think some Class measure might help. When i look at CJ's #s I often see
against what kind the # was given. Some high #s I toss, but i'm not sure
if thats right. nothing formal, but a good class measure couldn't hurt.

[classhandicapper]

I always look at the quality of the field my various numeric measurements were earned against. IMO, to a large extent, pace figures do capture the variations in final time figures that often accompany sharp moves up and down the class ladder. I do not think they capture everything though. I think there are some tangible and intangible qualities to races that "probably" occur over a period of time that is shorter than a quarter mile, half miles etc... that don't get captured by the numbers. In addition, no set of speed/pace figures are perfect and neither are the formulas used to try to combine them. Adding class to the equation tends to help offset any occasional significant errors with the numbers.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Adding class to the equation tends to help offset any occasional significant errors with the numbers.

Then can't it also result in double counting, since class is captured in the speed and/or pace figures? IMHO, "class" is very difficult to quantify. What do you use? Purse value? Claiming tag?

The development of speed figures/performance figures (name your favorite) removed the need for class analysis. Class analysis is really a 1960's & 1970's Ainsle era methodology. That was a time before even splits were available in the DRF.

I can remember Len Ragozin responding to a question about class at one of his Derby Seminar's and laughing off the idea and saying all that matters is how fast a horse can run. Personally, I am class agnostic. Haven't used it in handicapping for decades--except for special situations such as drops to Maiden claiming, State Breds to open, condition jumps (e.g NW1 eligible running in NW2), 50% or better class drops, and a few others. I wouldn't know how to quantify those special situations.

Slightly off topic, but one thing that I think is really shakey is the concept of "key" races. A horse's performance should be measured by how it did in the race, not how the opponents performed in subsequent races. If the timer was correct and the figures valid and reliable it shouldn't matter. How do "key" races work? Does the "winning spirit" get transmitted by osmosis or something so that all the horses in the race suddenly improve?

[JPinMaryland]

and you call yourself an agnostic? Sound more like skeptic to me.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by garyoz

I can remember Len Ragozin responding to a question about class at one of his Derby Seminar's and laughing off the idea and saying all that matters is how fast a horse can run.

Well, Ragozin also claims that pace doesn't matter. So what does that prove?

I'd love to run an experiment where everyone who says class doesn't matter would have no access to the class lines in the PP's and no idea of the class level for upcoming races. Then let's see how they would do.

Even Ragozin puts the race classes into the Sheets.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by RXB

Well, Ragozin also claims that pace doesn't matter. So what does that prove?

I'd love to run an experiment where everyone who says class doesn't matter would have no access to the class lines in the PP's and no idea of the class level for upcoming races. Then let's see how they would do.

Even Ragozin puts the race classes into the Sheets.

I don't think Ragozin has anything to prove. Just look at the trainers, owners, agents, and pro players who use the Sheets. The question is should figures be adjusted for class or does the figure carry with it an implicit class ability? I have known plenty of Sheet/Thorograph players who use the numbers much as one would use technical analysis for securities and don't make reference to class.

JP you are probably correct in that skeptic is better term. Personally I am interested in class changes in the context that a final figure number may not be reliable (e,g. big class drop indicating an unsound horse, MSW to MCL move up performance).

[RXB]

Well, I'd like to know how many of his clients have been suckered into buying a young, lightly raced horse because of a high Ragozin number, only to find out that the horse couldn't hack a legit pace.

Ragozin's numbers might be good but his ideological bindings are not.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by RXB

Ragozin's numbers might be good but his ideological bindings are not.

Jeez, maybe you can enlighten us all. I guess your clients do much better?

[RXB]

Don't have any clients, don't pretend to have any. But I am a winning player and I have at least some idea of what matters when it comes to handicapping a horse race and evaluating its participants.

I'm sure Ragozin makes good numbers that are quite useful but when he says pace doesn't matter he's misleading people.

Now, I got a little off the original topic and I apologize for that. Personally, I've never seen a formulaic class number/adjustment that worked to my liking, and I doubt that I could do much better than those who have already tried. So I would rather keep the class as a separate analytical factor from the speed and pace figures instead of trying to create a hybrid supernumber. But that's not to say that it couldn't be done.

[Lasix1]

Originally Posted by RXB

I'd love to run an experiment where everyone who says class doesn't matter would have no access to the class lines in the PP's and no idea of the class level for upcoming races. Then let's see how they would do.

My guess is they would do better.

[cj]

Originally Posted by RXB

Well, Ragozin also claims that pace doesn't matter. So what does that prove?

I'd love to run an experiment where everyone who says class doesn't matter would have no access to the class lines in the PP's and no idea of the class level for upcoming races. Then let's see how they would do.

Even Ragozin puts the race classes into the Sheets.

I don't look at the class the race was run in. I really can't remember the last time it was a factor in any decision I made. If you are looking for good numbers and high class, you get a lot of 3.60 payoffs.

[Kreed]

yeah CJ i agree that that combo would be chalk, but it could be cool to
develop a "class measure" & see how it relates to pace/speed figs. Where
anyones' figs fall flat is: #1, TURF races for youngsters. #2, DISTANCE races
for lightly raced horses. In fact, any race w/ the Firsters or Lightly raced
are just different from the figs for veterans.

[classhandicapper]

"Then can't it also result in double counting, since class is captured in the speed and/or pace figures? "

I was clear to say that IMO class is not fully captured by speed and pace figures.

It could result in double counting, but in general errors in figures are more likely when they move far away from the par of the class designation.

In other words, if a specific class of horses ususally runs a 100 figure (PAR) and the specific race in question received a 110, it is way more likely that if there is an error it's on the high side and not on the low side. Using the par of 100 would tend to drag down the appraisal of that performance relative to a 110 figure earned against 110 par horses.

"IMHO, "class" is very difficult to quantify. What do you use? Purse value? Claiming tag?"

I use the PAR figure for the class as a starting point and then examine the actual horses in the race - were they weak or strong for the designation based on their overall record, recent figures, etc... I also make some other subjective judgements.