WPS vs. the Exotics

[Half Smoke]

.

I don't bet the exotics

my issue is that is you do some kinna fecta key or box costing $24 - each bet being $1.00 - you have guaranteed yourself at least 23 losing bets

and of course the takeout is quite a bit higher

yes, I'm aware that if you hit one with shots you can easily get back 50/1 on your money or more

I'm aware that my opinion is very old school and surely not a popular one

prolly most or all of you guys bet both WPS and the exotics

if you looked back at your entire history - where would your r.o.i. be higher___?___________thanks


.

[MJC922]

My ROI on verticals is a red flag. Only win pool and double pool are positive ROIs for me as a recreational weekend player and that positivity only came about since I started using projected odds. As a full-time player 30 years ago I was a win pool player almost exclusively with a +10% ROI like clockwork every year, mixed with some verticals and doubles here and there but I only tracked ROI combined, I never broke it out by wager type so it's quite possible my ROI was negative on verticals even back in those days. Not sure...

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I don't bet the exotics

my issue is that is you do some kinna fecta key or box costing $24 - each bet being $1.00 - you have guaranteed yourself at least 23 losing bets

and of course the takeout is quite a bit higher

yes, I'm aware that if you hit one with shots you can easily get back 50/1 on your money or more

I'm aware that my opinion is very old school and surely not a popular one

prolly most or all of you guys bet both WPS and the exotics

if you looked back at your entire history - where would your r.o.i. be higher___?___________thanks


.

I like to bet longshots and even if I just use two of the most obvious contenders, let's say the first two betting choices, in exacta boxes with my longshot, I have a better than 80% chance of hitting the exacta and a $1 key box is only $4.00. If my longshot wins or runs second, I'm going to hit the exacta 8 out of 10 times. My point is, if you are bet longshots on a regular basis, even if you have a win bet or win/place/show bet, you should also play some exacta boxes with the longshot as a key. Even if you just box it with the favorite, at some tracks the favorite places around 60%. I've hit many exactas that paid over $100 with the favorite as part of the exacta. And, of course, the advantage of the exacta is that you can make a nice profit even if the horse you like (your key), loses.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I don't bet the exotics

my issue is that is you do some kinna fecta key or box costing $24 - each bet being $1.00 - you have guaranteed yourself at least 23 losing bets

and of course the takeout is quite a bit higher

yes, I'm aware that if you hit one with shots you can easily get back 50/1 on your money or more

I'm aware that my opinion is very old school and surely not a popular one

prolly most or all of you guys bet both WPS and the exotics

if you looked back at your entire history - where would your r.o.i. be higher___?___________thanks


.

I’m a part timer and I play exactas and trifectas exclusively. Lol I can’t believe I get will pays on tri’s these days. I box a lot but when a payout on a race doesn’t reflect a box I’ll sometimes play a single. It’s frustrating sometimes lol when you find a good 10 to 1 and he comes in first but you don’t fill out the rest of the bet, but it’s a winning wager for me in the long run.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I don't bet the exotics

my issue is that is you do some kinna fecta key or box costing $24 - each bet being $1.00 - you have guaranteed yourself at least 23 losing bets

and of course the takeout is quite a bit higher

yes, I'm aware that if you hit one with shots you can easily get back 50/1 on your money or more

I'm aware that my opinion is very old school and surely not a popular one

prolly most or all of you guys bet both WPS and the exotics

if you looked back at your entire history - where would your r.o.i. be higher___?___________thanks


.

I suggest making a contender list. See where the results match to your contenders. If you're not matching up well, you probably need a different criterion for your contenders.

[Robert Fischer]

it starts with good opinions and good tickets.

If your only opinion is in the win slot, you have to look twice before also betting verticals. Most of the time 'Win' is the best bet in that case.

Ideally, you have multiple opinions to justify an exotic wager.

[thaskalos]

If you can withstand a bunch of losers without having a chance to recoup your losses with a single shot, then win-betting may be for you. Otherwise you will start by betting to win...and then you will keep taking stabs with exotics wagers as desperation sets in and you try to get even.

[f2tornado]

I have a slight negative ROI on WPS wagers. If not for the TwinSpires and TVG promo race refunds, it would be worse. I don't make a lot of exacta and trifecta wagers but am probably in the red on those. Positive ROI on my P3 and dime super plays, perhaps because the low cost allows me to spread. Conclusion is I'm good at picking out the top horses but less so getting the order right.

[Inner Dirt]

Tough question as my equine investing career has taken many turns. First went to the track in 1975 with my step-dad and that was in SoCal
where I stayed until finally escaping in 2010. SoCal and I believe Cali as a whole was slow on adopting exotic wagering, and off track wagering. My memory could be off but I think when I first bet at Santa Anita in 1979. You had the early & late double, and a handful of exacta races.

I believe not all races had exactas, and trifectas did not exist here yet.


I did way better in my early gambling years percentage wise than later. The internet cancelled all the easy edges I had from dedicating myself to compiling data and I did my own Beyers before he published them. Then what took 20-40 hours a week to compile a person could get in 30 minutes of internet surfing. From 1975-1993 I made a good percentage of my income from gambling, after that I am in the red. In spite of all the gambling I worked over 40 hours a week, I just got by on little sleep. I was one gaffe away from going full time.


Pre OTB I liked a pick six at Del Mar, you had to play it at the track, it would mean missing work. Soon to end they had a monthly bonus
for perfect attendance, that increased by the month. Mine was up to $500 a month. I had $128 ticket marked up and there was a couple day carryover.


I was also thinking about seeing if I could work a half day but the Del Mar drive time is not predictable, it can be real slow. I just went to work. Probably $13 an hour then on a 10 hour swift. Earned $160 gross. That attendance bonus went on like another 2 months $1000 gross. So going to work was worth $1160 more than a break even day at the track.


Next day open the paper, thank God it wasn't hit, $225,000 carryover!
I should have stopped there, between the 12 horse names circled in Sharpie on my DRF was all 6 winners. Back in the day Del Mar seemed very kind to speed. So I made a decision that cost me $125k or so after taxes, oops!


Back to the original question over the whole course of my betting horses. I think Pick 3's or 4's have the highest ROI. I don't play exactas or trifectas much and I don't even think I every got a sign up on one or hit a $50 box
exacta for a good price. I had some nice win returns back in the day, but it seems every time I emptied the wallet to bust the bank I lost. I was a failure at let it ride. Pick Six's have been a bad luck bet. I have 3 career taking down the whole pool. All of them were on days of no carry over. The biggest one paid $36k, and had some longshots on it that made it obvious I could have been a single winner easily on a multiple day carryover. It was a inner dirt card at the big A and all pick 6 races were sprints and there was a strong inside speed bias. I played a $128 ticket. After 4 races I was the only live ticket. That kind of sucked as I pretty much had a chalky horse and a longshot in every race. The first 4 races the longshots beat my chalky horses. It finished up a $20 horse won leg 5 and a 6-5 won leg 6.
I think that could have taken down a 1/4 mil pool or higher.


I will say what I think is the best value combined with chance of cashing are the horizontal pick 3's and 4's. They usually pay more than parlay and provide opportunities if you are flexible in how you wager. I have had some nice hits playing straight ones and 1x2x1's or others using few selections.
The thing I noticed most about Pick3's and 4's is how if the M/L wins or not matters greatly at all the tracks I played. It doesn't even matter if the M/L
was a mistake or suspect. A horizontal wager with nothing but M/Ls can often pay less than parlay.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

it starts with good opinions and good tickets.

If your only opinion is in the win slot, you have to look twice before also betting verticals. Most of the time 'Win' is the best bet in that case.

Ideally, you have multiple opinions to justify an exotic wager.

I’m still kicking myself for my Haskell wager. One of the first things I do is look at who’s coming into the race the best. I had Geaux Rocket Ride and Tapit Trice as the only strong contenders coming into the race training and or running regularly. Morning line has me thinking this is a good single. I really liked Rocket here. Well rocket drops below 10 to 1 so I can spread a little if I want. I have the 3 best 3 year olds as Mage, Rocket, and Arcangelo. I know the most common thinking on Trice is he’s better longer, but his best race to date is his 9 furlong at Keenland. I figure maybe Mage being a little short for the race is a repeat of Fla Derby. I box Trice and Rocket. I should have singled Rocket and spread the 2nd spot with Mage and Trice. I didn’t bet my best analysis in that Mage is one of the best 3 year olds and even a little short figures for second as strong as Trice running a 99 Beyer. That would have been a 20$ exacta.

[Inner Dirt]

Anyone have any ideas to fix my word wrapping issues or whatever it is called please advise. It seems I have had it through many PCs and operating systems.