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10-30-2016, 11:04 AM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS USING MULTI NORMALIZED PROPORTIONAL ODDS BETTING
I JUST LOVE THAT TITLE
"TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS USING MULTI NORMALIZED PROPORTIONAL ODDS BETTING" IT SOUNDS SO WILLIAM BENTER 
IT SIMPLY MEANS I USE SEVERAL HORSES THAT MEET A CERTAIN CRITERA, ESTABLISH AN ODDS LINE AND WORK OUT A BET SIZE, WHICH THEORICALLY, RETURNS THE SAME AMOUNT REGARDLESS WHO WINS.
THE OBJECT IS TO RETURN A DOLLAR AMONUNT THAT BEATS THE TRACK TAKE OUT.
I HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL OVER ABOUT 100 PLAYS JUST USING MY TOP THREE PICKS.
NOW I WILL REVIEW THE BETTING TO SEE JUST WHAT % OF THE BOOK I CAN USE AND STILL MAINTAIN A PROFIT ON THE QUALIFIED HORSES.
ALL THIS IS DONE USING A WPS AND EXACTA TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS 2 TO 3 MINUETS TO POST TIME.
EVERY THING IS WORKED OUT TO A $1 BET AND RETURN ON A $1 BET.
THE HORSES PERCENT PROBABILITY IS NORMALIZED TO 1 AND THE RETURNS ARE NORMALIZED TO 1
OVER SEVERAL PLAYS, THE $1 RETURN AMOUNTS NEED TO EXCEED THE NUMBER OF PLAYS TO BE PROFITABLE
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2016, 10:32 PM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Los Alamitos QH
Race
6
Post
10:30
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$9,781 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 7 1 6
BET SIZE 0.28 0.44 0.29
BET SUM 0.28 0.71 0.72
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 8
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2016, 10:58 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Los Alamitos QH
Race
7
Post
10:58
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$7,432 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 1 4 5
BET SIZE 0.33 0.37 0.30
BET SUM 0.33 0.70 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 7
ESTIMATED BET % 30.83%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2016, 11:28 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Los Alamitos QH
Race
8
Post
11:27
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$4,204 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 2 4 7
BET SIZE 0.48 0.25 0.27
BET SUM 0.48 0.73 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 7
ESTIMATED BET % 49.52%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2016, 11:54 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Los Alamitos QH
Race
9
Post
11:54
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$13,102 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 3 10 8
BET SIZE 0.19 0.20 0.62
BET SUM 0.19 0.38 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 8
ESTIMATED BET % 40.38%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 02:07 AM
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#6
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by formula_2002
I JUST LOVE THAT TITLE
"TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS USING MULTI NORMALIZED PROPORTIONAL ODDS BETTING" IT SOUNDS SO WILLIAM BENTER
IT SIMPLY MEANS I USE SEVERAL HORSES THAT MEET A CERTAIN CRITERA, ESTABLISH AN ODDS LINE AND WORK OUT A BET SIZE, WHICH THEORICALLY, RETURNS THE SAME AMOUNT REGARDLESS WHO WINS.
THE OBJECT IS TO RETURN A DOLLAR AMONUNT THAT BEATS THE TRACK TAKE OUT.
I HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL OVER ABOUT 100 PLAYS JUST USING MY TOP THREE PICKS.
NOW I WILL REVIEW THE BETTING TO SEE JUST WHAT % OF THE BOOK I CAN USE AND STILL MAINTAIN A PROFIT ON THE QUALIFIED HORSES.
ALL THIS IS DONE USING A WPS AND EXACTA TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS 2 TO 3 MINUETS TO POST TIME.
EVERY THING IS WORKED OUT TO A $1 BET AND RETURN ON A $1 BET.
THE HORSES PERCENT PROBABILITY IS NORMALIZED TO 1 AND THE RETURNS ARE NORMALIZED TO 1
OVER SEVERAL PLAYS, THE $1 RETURN AMOUNTS NEED TO EXCEED THE NUMBER OF PLAYS TO BE PROFITABLE
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You've been successful over 100 plays dutching your top 3---each wager is a different size on each of the three. I'm trying to understand how you're trying to improve on this? Napalm claims wild profits doing something similar, though in advance...although I haven't bothered to check.
You haven't revealed any of your methodology, f_2002....I'm assuming your contender selection criteria is somehow tote & odds-based.
I admire the way you constantly challenge yourself--if you ever do get this all figured out...remember I've always been your supporter. Don't forget to put it onto a calculator for me buddy 
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10-31-2016, 01:09 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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HERE ARE THE RESULTS FOR YESTERDAYS USA RACES
0 WIN IN 6 PLAYS
BASED ON THE FINAL TRACK ODDS,2.70 WINS WERE EXPECTED.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 01:10 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I admire the way you constantly challenge yourself--if you ever do get this all figured out...remember I've always been your supporter. Don't forget to put it onto a calculator for me buddy |
YOU ARE ON THE TOP OF MY LIST.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 01:25 PM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Parx Racing
Race
2
Post
1:24
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$15,391 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 10 9 11
BET SIZE 0.24 0.48 0.28
BET SUM 0.24 0.72 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 10
ESTIMATED BET % 41.31%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 03:45 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Parx Racing
Race
7
Post
3:45
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$21,301 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 3 1 4
BET SIZE 0.44 0.37 0.18
BET SUM 0.44 0.82 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 9
ESTIMATED BET % 42.73%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 05:21 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Turf Paradise
Race
4
Post
5:20
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$5,592 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 1 2 6
BET SIZE 0.59 0.17 0.24
BET SUM 0.59 0.76 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 7
ESTIMATED BET % 31.35%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 05:31 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 111
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Looking good today. Thanks for sharing.
 Dynamite Wind $26.60 $10.00 $5.80
Last edited by Mike Getchell; 10-31-2016 at 05:32 PM.
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10-31-2016, 07:09 PM
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#13
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Portland Meadows
Race
10
Post
7:06
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$3,364 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 5 4 12
BET SIZE 0.58 0.29 0.14
BET SUM 0.58 0.86 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 9
ESTIMATED BET % 22.48%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 07:34 PM
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#14
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Dover
Race
11
Post
7:33
MTP
1
$2 Exacta Pool
$250 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 6 2 5
BET SIZE 0.19 0.53 0.28
BET SUM 0.19 0.72 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 7
ESTIMATED BET % 44.36%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2016, 07:45 PM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
3
Post
7:45
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$6,566 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 3 4 7
BET SIZE 0.20 0.50 0.31
BET SUM 0.20 0.69 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 6
ESTIMATED BET % 61.34%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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