PREAKNESS FUTURE BETS - Page 2 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

zico20 · 05-01-2023, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bennie

New faces usually don't win the Preakness. With that thought, I might take all others if the odds remain over 10-1 in case Baffert shows up. The other thought is if you really think you have the derby winner, then you might get some value now because they will probably be the chalk come Preakness.
And as Zico said, who will pass and who will run following the derby should they not win? And will the Japanese run back so soon even if they win? Are they just looking to win the Derby or will they also seek a shot at the Triple Crown?
I'll wait until late tomorrow to see what the odds are and maybe look at Tapit Trice if he is around 6-1 or better (my current top derby choice) , Practical Move if around 15-1 and as stated prior, all others if around 15-1. If those odds are not available, I will pass.

What is fair odds on Tapit Trice? I contend he is only playable at 20-1 or greater. What is his chances of winning the Derby and Preakness as it stands? He will be around 6-1 in the Derby and if wins then possibly 2-1 in the Preakness. You are basically playing a parlay or daily double with him since if he loses the Derby your money on the future bet is lost.

f2tornado · 05-01-2023, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

What is fair odds on Tapit Trice? I contend he is only playable at 20-1 or greater. What is his chances of winning the Derby and Preakness as it stands? He will be around 6-1 in the Derby and if wins then possibly 2-1 in the Preakness. You are basically playing a parlay or daily double with him since if he loses the Derby your money on the future bet is lost.

That's what I would think. A person should get at least 4-1 on him in the Derby pool as Forte will take ample money and others will help spread the rest around. A $10 wager would turn into $50. If you get 2-1 on Preakness day then your $50 turns into $150. At the current 12-1 in the Future pool, your $10 only turns into $130. I guess if you want to pocket your Derby profit while having some cheap Preakness action then go for it.

Bennie · 05-01-2023, 07:25 PM

Here are the scenarios I played in my head. I have Tapit Trice in pool #3 at 45/1 so a Derby win bet is not needed at 6/1. It is a futures bet, which means if he doesn't run in the preakness, money is gone. Just like the Derby pools. What if he doesn't win the Derby, but closes to just miss by a nostril. A wager to be used as a "parlay" is lost but if he runs back in the Preakness and is the favorite, a futures bet at 6/1 or better (currently 12/1) is worth it. That is why I'm waiting until just before the pool closes to make my final decision. I would bet him in the Preakness at 6/1 or better but if he is 2/1 I would not bet him back. I would only use him in horizontals and verticals.

f2tornado · 05-01-2023, 07:31 PM

I get what you're saying but one other factor to consider is Todd A. Pletcher is not known to send his non-Derby winners to Pimlico. If he misses by a nose or longer, it's quite likely straight to the Belmont. 12-1 is certainly a value should he win in Kentucky,

zico20 · 05-01-2023, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I get what you're saying but one other factor to consider is Todd A. Pletcher is not known to send his non-Derby winners to Pimlico. If he misses by a nose or longer, it's quite likely straight to the Belmont. 12-1 is certainly a value should he win in Kentucky,

Since 2000 Pletcher, minus Super Saver and Always Dreaming since they won the Derby, he has only run seven horses in the Preakness and only two of them were Derby runners, Impeachment in 2000 and Circular Quay in 2007. He hasn't had a horse since Always Dreaming in 2017. Plus he has never won the Preakness. Here is a chart from Wikipedia with all his runners in the Triple Crown races since 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Pletcher

Parkview_Pirate · 05-02-2023, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zico20

Since 2000 Pletcher, minus Super Saver and Always Dreaming since they won the Derby, he has only run seven horses in the Preakness and only two of them were Derby runners, Impeachment in 2000 and Circular Quay in 2007. He hasn't had a horse since Always Dreaming in 2017. Plus he has never won the Preakness. Here is a chart from Wikipedia with all his runners in the Triple Crown races since 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Pletcher

Glad you started the thread on this zico20, as I think it's a rather interesting wager debuting this year. Based on Pletcher's stats, my takeaway is he doesn't think much of the Preakness in adding value to a sire if a Triple Crown is no longer possible. I'd hazard a guess that he's not the only trainer with this point of view, so part of 'capping this future is figuring out which Derby horses will skip the Preakness if they lose the Derby (as you pointed out), and which horses will run in the Preakness regardless.

I won't argue with your comment on Mage. The idea of the future wager is to get better odds than race day, and 25-1 (currently) is certainly better than what he'll be if he wins the Derby. 5-1 on Preakness Day?

But I'm more interested in catching a "new shooter", below the public's radar, as once again we have a fine collection of 3YO plugs this year, and I don't think it's going to take much improvement for a longer shot to jump up and win. In particular, I'm looking at Instant Coffee - he fell flat in the LA Derby as the chalk, and with no points didn't qualify for the Derby. But he was highly regarded up to that point (and a pool 2 future Derby bet for me), and while I'm not sure if he'll have enough speed to win the Preakness, but at 40-1 (currently) he might be worth a play. Toss one bad race and hope.

I'll be taking a closer look later in the week as I firm up my Derby plays. But I agree that unlike many future bets, this one has a shorter time frame and the path of being confident on tossing many of the horses listed as they won't come near the starting gate (at least in theory).

rastajenk · 05-04-2023, 10:30 PM

I'm going to wonder how some of these last minute defections might affect this pool. I'm going to take a token stab at it, lots of good angles mentioned here so far.

Blazing Sevens could be one that fits a profile.

Parkview_Pirate · 05-06-2023, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I'm going to wonder how some of these last minute defections might affect this pool. I'm going to take a token stab at it, lots of good angles mentioned here so far.

Blazing Sevens could be one that fits a profile.

Very good question. A couple of the scratches due to fever open up the possibility do they bounce back quickly enough to run in the Preakness? With $242K in the pool, Practical Move is 17-1 and Skinner is 38-1. Like zico20 mentioned, knowing which connections will point to the Preakness is also good to keep in mind. I can't think of any trainers mentioning they were pointing to the race vs. the Derby.

Mandarin Hero (15-1) and Cyclone Mischief (49-1) might have been interesting, but now both are scratched in and running today.

Continuar and of course Wild on Ice have been scratched from the Preakness future bet - but I'm not sure how much was bet on either of them and if you get a refund (doubtful).

Another question to ask is if a horse doesn't run well or gets a rough trip in the Derby and isn't used hard, will they return to the Preakness? This is a pretty unusual situation, as I can only think of War of Will in 2019 off the top of my head who did this (16-1 in the Derby, interfered with by Maximum Security, finishing 8th, coming back and winning the Preakness at 6-1). But there's no way to handicap a future that way, predicting a rough trip in the Derby followed by an unlikely entry in the Preakness.

Blazing Sevens looks interesting, though his running style doesn't seem the best for the race. He's bet down anyway, at 23-1. Instant Coffee (43-1) is one I like, but I don't recall any recent workouts from him. "All other 3YO" is currently 19-1, and I find that a wee bit tempting if Pletcher and company want to run Julia Shining, who didn't scratch into the Oaks. I suppose she'll end up in the BES stakes instead though.....

I'll be treading lightly, whatever I do....

f2tornado · 05-06-2023, 07:51 AM

A moderately fast one paced horse like Reincarnate or Rocket Can has fared well in the Preakness. It's not Mott's thing though. Maybe Yakteen would do it since his horse had a longer layoff than rest of Derby field. 56-1 is nothing to sneeze at.

zico20 · 05-06-2023, 01:50 PM

Forte is out, now what? They say he could have run if the race was on Tuesday so he will be totally healthy for the Preakness if they choose that path. I wouldn't bet him still in this future because I got a feeling they will wait until the Belmont. The Preakness future is going to take a few years to get the hang of it. What are fair odds that he runs in two weeks? I say I would need at least 10-1 to make a bet right now.