Chat GPT

[PhantomOnTour]

My apologies if there's already a thread about this.

My brother in law told me about this technology a few weeks ago, and I just saw a segment about it on CBS News Sunday Morning (love that show)

Wow, amazing and scary at the same time.

[Dave Schwartz]

I've spent quite a bit of time with ChatGPT.

Initially, I thought I'd discovered The Oracle who had all the answers.

Then I discovered that it does not always give correct answers.

While ChatGPT sounds very human, it basically spouts a lot of drivel.

But you are right to be concerned about what's coming.
__________
Below is an actual dialog:
(completely unedited - except for the bold highlights that denote errors)

[me]
write a blog post about Sartin Pace handicapping

[chat]
Sartin Pace Handicapping: Understanding the Basics

Pace handicapping is a method of analyzing horse races that focuses on the running style of the horses in the race. One of the most popular and respected pace handicappers is Jerry Sartin, who has developed a system that he calls "Sartin Pace Handicapping." In this blog post, we will take a closer look at Sartin's approach and how it can be used to improve your handicapping skills.

The Sartin Pace Handicapping system is based on the idea that certain horses have a preferred running style and that this style can be used to predict the horse's performance in a race. Sartin categorizes horses into four different types: front-runners, stalkers, pressers, and closers. Front-runners are horses that like to be on or near the lead, while stalkers prefer to run just behind the leaders. Pressers are horses that like to stay in the middle of the pack, while closers are horses that prefer to come from behind in the stretch.

Sartin's system also takes into account the pace of the race, which is the speed at which the horses are running. In a fast-paced race, front-runners and stalkers will have an advantage, while in a slow-paced race, pressers and closers will have an edge.

One of the key factors in Sartin's system is the use of pace figures, which are numerical values that indicate the speed at which a horse has run in its past races. Sartin uses these figures to determine the pace of the race and to identify the type of horse that is likely to perform well in that race.

In addition to analyzing the pace of the race, Sartin also looks at other factors such as the horse's recent form, the jockey and trainer, and the horse's breeding. By taking all of these factors into account, Sartin is able to make more accurate predictions about a horse's performance in a race.

One of the benefits of Sartin's system is that it can be used to identify horses that are undervalued by the betting public. By identifying horses that have a good chance of winning but are not receiving enough attention from the betting public, a handicapper can find value in the odds and potentially make a profit.

To sum it up, Sartin pace handicapping is a method of analyzing horse races that focuses on the running style of the horses in the race, the pace of the race and other factors such as the horse's recent form, the jockey and trainer, and the horse's breeding. By taking all of these factors into account, Sartin is able to make more accurate predictions about a horse's performance in a race and also help identify horses that are undervalued by the betting public.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I've spent quite a bit of time with ChatGPT.


While ChatGPT sounds very human, it basically spouts a lot of drivel.

That sounds pretty human to me!

Does ChatGPT post here?

[Dave Schwartz]

Interesting blog post on the topic.

Always bear in mind that these AI engines cannot be relied upon for truly accurate information.

Their goal is to sound smart.


We Asked ChatGPT and Sophia the Robot to Predict the Impact of A.I. on the Business World

That sounds pretty human to me!
Does ChatGPT post here?

Exactly right.

Hmm. Interesting idea.
(Letting chat.GPT write some responses.)

[Jeff P]

Twitter

-jp

.

__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

https://twitter.com/LeighWolf/status...44921241251842


-jp

.

They gaslight you every chance they get...how can you ever believe ANYTHING you read or see reported ever again?

I know I stopped a long time ago.

[Jeff P]

Twitter

Twitter

I guess it had to be called out first?

But then again the Teachable Moment tweet was made some 15 hrs after the original. More than enough time for the developers to have seen the first tweet and add some programming it to make the bias less obvious.


-jp

.

__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

---

Last edited by Jeff P; 02-04-2023 at 04:20 PM.

[Gorrex]

Here's something I tried.. its interesting but has issues. However the more you lead it the better it becomes.

Right now I view it more as a potential time saver on a topic you can verify yourself. It won't get things right but you can tell it to correct itself. Simple and partial example of that below.. This went on for quite a few more back and forthes till it got really really close.

From Chat GPT:

Jason

Do you know how to calculate fair value payoff for exact and trifecta pools based on win odds?


CHAT GPT Reply
To calculate the fair value payoff for exacta and trifecta pools, you will need to know the win odds for each horse in the race. Once you have the win odds, you can use them to calculate the payout odds for the exacta and trifecta pools.

For an exacta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first and second place horses. For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1 and the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1, the exacta payoff would be (5/1) x (8/1) = 40/1.

For a trifecta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first, second, and third place horses. For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1, the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1, and the win odds for the third place horse are 10/1, the trifecta payoff would be (5/1) x (8/1) x (10/1) = 400/1.

Keep in mind that this is a simplified way of calculating the payoff and the actual payoffs are usually determined by the track or the company that manages the pool.




Jason
In fair value pool calculation isn't their normally a modifier added to second and third place?

CHAT GPT
In fair value pool calculation for exacta and trifecta pools, a modifier is typically added to the win odds for the second and third place horses. This is because the payout for correctly picking the second or third place horse is typically lower than the payout for correctly picking the first place horse.

The modifier is a fraction, typically less than 1, which is used to adjust the win odds for the second and third place horses. For example, the modifier for the second place horse might be 0.5, meaning that the adjusted win odds for the second place horse would be 0.5 x the original win odds.

For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1, the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1 and the modifier is 0.5, the adjusted win odds for the second place horse would be (0.5*8) = 4/1.

Then the exacta payoff would be (5/1) x (4/1) = 20/1.

Similarly, for a trifecta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first, adjusted win odds for the second and adjusted win odds for the third place horses.

Keep in mind that different tracks and companies may use different modifiers, so it's best to check the specific rules for the pool you're interested in.

[Gorrex]

And.. the example above may show its most dangerous trait.


Its good enough to be a con-man. It can literally talk through any topic in the world with enough accuracy to be believable by all but experts.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Gorrex

Here's something I tried.. its interesting but has issues. However the more you lead it the better it becomes.

Right now I view it more as a potential time saver on a topic you can verify yourself. It won't get things right but you can tell it to correct itself. Simple and partial example of that below.. This went on for quite a few more back and forthes till it got really really close.

From Chat GPT:

Jason

Do you know how to calculate fair value payoff for exact and trifecta pools based on win odds?


CHAT GPT Reply
To calculate the fair value payoff for exacta and trifecta pools, you will need to know the win odds for each horse in the race. Once you have the win odds, you can use them to calculate the payout odds for the exacta and trifecta pools.

For an exacta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first and second place horses. For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1 and the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1, the exacta payoff would be (5/1) x (8/1) = 40/1.

For a trifecta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first, second, and third place horses. For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1, the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1, and the win odds for the third place horse are 10/1, the trifecta payoff would be (5/1) x (8/1) x (10/1) = 400/1.

Keep in mind that this is a simplified way of calculating the payoff and the actual payoffs are usually determined by the track or the company that manages the pool.




Jason
In fair value pool calculation isn't their normally a modifier added to second and third place?

CHAT GPT
In fair value pool calculation for exacta and trifecta pools, a modifier is typically added to the win odds for the second and third place horses. This is because the payout for correctly picking the second or third place horse is typically lower than the payout for correctly picking the first place horse.

The modifier is a fraction, typically less than 1, which is used to adjust the win odds for the second and third place horses. For example, the modifier for the second place horse might be 0.5, meaning that the adjusted win odds for the second place horse would be 0.5 x the original win odds.

For example, if the win odds for the first place horse are 5/1, the win odds for the second place horse are 8/1 and the modifier is 0.5, the adjusted win odds for the second place horse would be (0.5*8) = 4/1.

Then the exacta payoff would be (5/1) x (4/1) = 20/1.

Similarly, for a trifecta pool, the payout odds are determined by multiplying the win odds for the first, adjusted win odds for the second and adjusted win odds for the third place horses.

Keep in mind that different tracks and companies may use different modifiers, so it's best to check the specific rules for the pool you're interested in.

If the win odds of the winner are 2/1 and the win odds of the place hprse are also 2/1...then the exacta payoff would be (2/1) x (2/1) = 4/1 ?

That seems kind of lite to me.

[Gorrex]

I didnt say it was right.. lol

But it knows how to BS.

Imagine it writing detailed articles on how to do X surgery at home without spending money at the doctor.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Gorrex

I didnt say it was right.. lol

But it knows how to BS.

Some here might propose that it was created by Democrats.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Gorrex

And.. the example above may show its most dangerous trait.


Its good enough to be a con-man. It can literally talk through any topic in the world with enough accuracy to be believable by all but experts.

My experience was similar to yours.

When I asked it about the Sartin Methodology it wrote lots of good stuff about pace handicapping generalities then added how Sartin believed in a very comprehensive approach which included jockey & trainer analysis, workouts, speed ratings.

Then he added a lengthy part about how "Jerry Sartin" believed in watching the tote board.

Good old Jerry.

[fast4522]

Here is a link that might be in line with this subject.

https://www.jpost.com/business-and-i...article-730829

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Here is a link that might be in line with this subject.

https://www.jpost.com/business-and-i...article-730829

That was an excellent article.
Thank you.


The current laws are probably good enough.. for now.

On some level, saying that an AI engine cannot learn from (say) a book is a lot like saying, "Yes, you can buy my book, but you aren't allowed to to use my book to get smarter."

If we look down the road a piece, the logical argument is that people should be allowed to learn from a book but a machine should not.

As AI gets smarter, faster, better, that line between humans and machines will get very blurry.

[Skynet is] Coming soon to an internet near you.