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Old 11-12-2018, 04:21 PM   #61
Spalding No!
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Originally Posted by papillon View Post
That's always been the test of whether the pace is real or not. Except in the Belmont, which is a bizarre race that rarely predicts future success of any kind.
From the winners of each race of the last 34 Triple Crown series, the Belmont has produced as many post-series Grade 1 winners (17) as has the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.

From the place and show horses combined, the Belmont has produced more post-series Grade 1 winners (29) than either the Preakness (28) or the Kentucky Derby (27).
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:55 PM   #62
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From the winners of each race of the last 34 Triple Crown series, the Belmont has produced as many post-series Grade 1 winners (17) as has the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.

From the place and show horses combined, the Belmont has produced more post-series Grade 1 winners (29) than either the Preakness (28) or the Kentucky Derby (27).
Interesting stat, did not know that.

Do you know how the winners have done post race?
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Old 11-12-2018, 08:40 PM   #63
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Interesting stat, did not know that.

Do you know how the winners have done post race?
For the Belmont?

Justify - unraced, retired
Tapwrit - no wins
Creator - no wins
American Pharoah - Haskell; BC Classic
Tonalist - Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Cigar Mile; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Palace Malice - Met Mile; won 4 other Graded Stakes
Union Rags - unraced; retired
Ruler On Ice - winner; Grade 1-placed (2x)
Drosselmeyer - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Summer Bird - Travers; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Da Tara - no wins
Rags To Riches - Grade 1-placed (1x)
Jazil - no wins
Afleet Alex - unraced
Birdstone - Travers
Empire Maker - no wins
Sarava - no wins
Point Given - Haskell; Travers
Commendable - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Lemon Drop Kid - Travers; Whitney; Woodward; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Victory Gallop - Whitney; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Touch Gold - Haskell
Editor's Note - Super Derby
Thunder Gulch - Travers
Tabasco Cat - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Colonial Affair - Whitney; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (2x)
A.P. Indy - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Hansel - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Go And Go (IRE) - winner, Graded Stakes-placed
Easy Goer - Whitney; Travers; Woodward; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Suburban; G1p (2x)
Risen Star - unraced
Bet Twice - Haskell; Pimlico Special; G1p (3x)
Danzig Connection - G2 winner; G1p (3x)
Creme Fraiche - American Derby; Jerome; Super Derby; Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Meadownlands Cup; G1p (10x)
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Old 11-12-2018, 09:27 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
For the Belmont?

Justify - unraced, retired
Tapwrit - no wins
Creator - no wins
American Pharoah - Haskell; BC Classic
Tonalist - Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Cigar Mile; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Palace Malice - Met Mile; won 4 other Graded Stakes
Union Rags - unraced; retired
Ruler On Ice - winner; Grade 1-placed (2x)
Drosselmeyer - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Summer Bird - Travers; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Da Tara - no wins
Rags To Riches - Grade 1-placed (1x)
Jazil - no wins
Afleet Alex - unraced
Birdstone - Travers
Empire Maker - no wins
Sarava - no wins
Point Given - Haskell; Travers
Commendable - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Lemon Drop Kid - Travers; Whitney; Woodward; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Victory Gallop - Whitney; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Touch Gold - Haskell
Editor's Note - Super Derby
Thunder Gulch - Travers
Tabasco Cat - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Colonial Affair - Whitney; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (2x)
A.P. Indy - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Hansel - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Go And Go (IRE) - winner, Graded Stakes-placed
Easy Goer - Whitney; Travers; Woodward; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Suburban; G1p (2x)
Risen Star - unraced
Bet Twice - Haskell; Pimlico Special; G1p (3x)
Danzig Connection - G2 winner; G1p (3x)
Creme Fraiche - American Derby; Jerome; Super Derby; Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Meadownlands Cup; G1p (10x)
I was just wondering how the Belmont winners stacked up to the Preakness and Derby. It does look like Belmont winners could be expected to continue their success at 10F.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:45 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
For the Belmont?

Justify - unraced, retired
Tapwrit - no wins
Creator - no wins
American Pharoah - Haskell; BC Classic
Tonalist - Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Cigar Mile; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Palace Malice - Met Mile; won 4 other Graded Stakes
Union Rags - unraced; retired
Ruler On Ice - winner; Grade 1-placed (2x)
Drosselmeyer - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Summer Bird - Travers; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Da Tara - no wins
Rags To Riches - Grade 1-placed (1x)
Jazil - no wins
Afleet Alex - unraced
Birdstone - Travers
Empire Maker - no wins
Sarava - no wins
Point Given - Haskell; Travers
Commendable - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Lemon Drop Kid - Travers; Whitney; Woodward; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Victory Gallop - Whitney; Grade 1-placed (3x)
Touch Gold - Haskell
Editor's Note - Super Derby
Thunder Gulch - Travers
Tabasco Cat - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Colonial Affair - Whitney; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Grade 1-placed (2x)
A.P. Indy - BC Classic; Grade 1-placed (1x)
Hansel - Grade 1-placed (2x)
Go And Go (IRE) - winner, Graded Stakes-placed
Easy Goer - Whitney; Travers; Woodward; Jockey Club Gold Cup; Suburban; G1p (2x)
Risen Star - unraced
Bet Twice - Haskell; Pimlico Special; G1p (3x)
Danzig Connection - G2 winner; G1p (3x)
Creme Fraiche - American Derby; Jerome; Super Derby; Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x); Meadownlands Cup; G1p (10x)
It's worth noting that some if these accolades ("winner", "graded stakes placed") are consistent with mediocrity, and a number of these horses were indeed mediocre.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:27 AM   #66
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Side note about the 2017 Belmont, possibly the worst producer of future wins from a G1 ever? Only one horse from the field managed to win another graded stakes race, and that was the G3 Pimlico Special (Irish War Cry).
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:59 PM   #67
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Side note about the 2017 Belmont, possibly the worst producer of future wins from a G1 ever? Only one horse from the field managed to win another graded stakes race, and that was the G3 Pimlico Special (Irish War Cry).
And Irish War Cry needed a gift pace to do that!!!
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:30 PM   #68
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And Irish War Cry needed a gift pace to do that!!!
You mean like American Pharoah in the Belmont?

One can take apart many big race wins.

Last edited by the little guy; 11-13-2018 at 03:32 PM.
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:31 PM   #69
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Side note about the 2017 Belmont, possibly the worst producer of future wins from a G1 ever? Only one horse from the field managed to win another graded stakes race, and that was the G3 Pimlico Special (Irish War Cry).
Which TC race in 2017 produced a bevy of future major Stakes wins? How did the Preakness do?

I guess Battle of Midway was in the Derby?
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:48 PM   #70
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You mean like American Pharoah in the Belmont?

One can take apart many big race wins.
Sure, but AP ran the first 6 furlongs in the Belmont in 1:13 and change, and then didn't slow down and ran the last 6 furlongs in 1:13 and change, for a very fast 2:26 and something final time.

That's actually really impressive despite the lone F trip. IWC didn't do anything like that.
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:53 PM   #71
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Sure, but AP ran the first 6 furlongs in the Belmont in 1:13 and change, and then didn't slow down and ran the last 6 furlongs in 1:13 and change, for a very fast 2:26 and something final time.

That's actually really impressive despite the lone F trip. IWC didn't do anything like that.
This is the post I was responding to....


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And Irish War Cry needed a gift pace to do that!!!

There are still people crying about the one time American Pharoah was challenged even mildly early in a race.
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Old 11-13-2018, 07:01 PM   #72
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Which TC race in 2017 produced a bevy of future major Stakes wins? How did the Preakness do?

I guess Battle of Midway was in the Derby?
Probably none, they all stunk, but the Belmont was being discussed so I looked that one up specifically.
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:14 PM   #73
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It's worth noting that some if these accolades ("winner", "graded stakes placed") are consistent with mediocrity, and a number of these horses were indeed mediocre.
Not sure if you followed properly. These were not meant to be accolades, but rather simple summaries of post-Triple Crown careers. If I listed Go and Go (IRE)'s win in an allowance race as a 4yo it wasn't meant to validate his Belmont victory. That said, Go and Go (IRE) I believe registered the highest Beyer Speed Figure (109) for a 2yo since their inception when he won the Laurel Futurity over another BSF stalwart named Robyn Dancer.

So, while his latter career can be called "mediocre" I would suggest that the horse had much more talent than what was actually realized, perhaps hampered by physical issues or mismanagement.

At any rate, only the bolded horses were Grade 1 winners after the Triple Crown.
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:18 PM   #74
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Probably none, they all stunk, but the Belmont was being discussed so I looked that one up specifically.
Not exactly. The point that was made was that Belmont winners had gone on to do more than winners of other TC races, to provide some truth to the usual lies and idiocy people post on the internet. While your post wasn't idiotic, nor was it untrue, it did go along with the incorrect assumption that the Belmont is a worse predictor of future success than other TC races:-) In 2017, ALL the TC races were poor predictors of future success....much as that has personally broken my heart.
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:34 PM   #75
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Not sure if you followed properly. These were not meant to be accolades, but rather simple summaries of post-Triple Crown careers. If I listed Go and Go (IRE)'s win in an allowance race as a 4yo it wasn't meant to validate his Belmont victory. That said, Go and Go (IRE) I believe registered the highest Beyer Speed Figure (109) for a 2yo since their inception when he won the Laurel Futurity over another BSF stalwart named Robyn Dancer.

So, while his latter career can be called "mediocre" I would suggest that the horse had much more talent than what was actually realized, perhaps hampered by physical issues or mismanagement.

At any rate, only the bolded horses were Grade 1 winners after the Triple Crown.
For the record, I remember Robyn Dancer and Go and Go well and you aren't wrong.

On the other hand, Commendable sucked despite his stakes placings.
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