Im afraid this may be the last day of the Spa meet

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by cj

The rain is probably a factor. It would be quite a coincidence if it is not.

That said, these are very small sample sizes when you are talking about "per 1,000 starts." Nobody wants to hear this, but it could just be bad luck. I still think it is the rain though.

while it is pretty clearly multiple factors, we have had two very fast, perhaps somewhat fragile horses run extremely fast early on arguably an unnecessarily deep dirt surface, then unable to slow down and glide to victory, perhaps because they lost their footing due to something with the surface being too deep for them to stop

that at least seems a possible consistency between Mel and NYT's tragedies, which seems quite possibly related to the surface condition, no one has said otherwise yet anyway

run too fast on a deep dirt track and it's harder to slow down, seems at least a possibility worth further investigating (and worrying that it might just happen again if it has happened twice)

[cj]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

while it is pretty clearly multiple factors, we have had two very fast, perhaps somewhat fragile horses run extremely fast early on arguably an unnecessarily deep dirt surface, then unable to slow down and glide to victory, perhaps because they lost their footing due to something with the surface being too deep for them to stop

that at least seems a possible consistency between Mel and NYT's tragedies, which seems quite possibly related to the surface condition, no one has said otherwise yet anyway

run too fast on a deep dirt track and it's harder to slow down, seems at least a possibility worth further investigating (and worrying that it might just happen again if it has happened twice)

The times those two horses were running don't indicate a deep track at all.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by cj

The times those two horses were running don't indicate a deep track at all.

Because it is deep, those early fractions were even faster than they seem

[cj]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

Because it is deep, those early fractions were even faster than they seem

Come on, you're reaching now. The track hasn't been all that deep. It isn't Emerald Downs or anything but it has been pretty much average speed wise for a dirt track.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

roughly 3700 horses have run this season (someone else can verify this I'm sure)

12 have died/

that's pretty much 3 per 1000 runners, perhaps slightly more

Pick a story.
You said 3 times as many as the most recent meetings,
Now you chane the story/

How many

2019
2020
2021
2022

And you claim the track was deep.....where is your peoof?
CJ has credibility in his opiniom.
You are a known complainer with nothing to back it up.

Go play Woodbine.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Tom

Pick a story.
You said 3 times as many as the most recent meetings,
Now you chane the story/

How many

2019
2020
2021
2022

And you claim the track was deep.....where is your peoof?
CJ has credibility in his opiniom.
You are a known complainer with nothing to back it up.

Go play Woodbine.

It’s called simple math and using your eyes when watching a race - this track is too deep for very fast horses

But feel free to look for more “data”

It would take about an hour for anyone to calculate the 2023 Spa death rate by hand

Point is, it is many times higher this year for many different and sometimes interconnected reasons and they keep running anyway

[pandy]

The track was sloppy and sealed when New York Thunder broke down. As for it being deep, NYRA has been keeping all 3 of their tracks with a good cushion for quite a few years now and the track surfaces seemed as safe as any dirt tracks, perhaps better than average.

[paulbenny]

If Bob Baffert was the trainer of the runner yesterday, not Jorge Delgado, it would be blamed on him. I just want to get that out there. I am pretty confident that would have been mentioned here. I suspect that all other recent situations at Saratoga would have been superseded by the fact that Bob trained the runner.

[classhandicapper]

Given that SA had trouble after an unusually rainy period, now Saratoga is experiencing the same thing, and intuitively it makes some sense that a lot of rain might change the footing/base, it seems logical to start there. It may just be coincidence or there may be patterns. There may be only certain surface compositions that are more vulnerable to a lot of rain. We are all just guessing.

The data is out there.

It's on the industry to take a very good look at all the fatalities, track conditions, temperature, periods of heavy rain or dryness, dirt surface composition, type of grass on the course etc.. to see what the data says.

This shouldn't be that complicated for the industry.

I may even have most of the required data in my database.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

It’s called simple math and using your eyes when watching a race - this track is too deep for very fast horses

But feel free to look for more “data”

It would take about an hour for anyone to calculate the 2023 Spa death rate by hand

Point is, it is many times higher this year for many different and sometimes interconnected reasons and they keep running anyway

So you admit you were lying.
You also are lyinh about the track being too deep.
You are nothing but a complainer who changes the story when you get called out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

the numbers are even worse apparently

https://twitter.com/foxhound6/status...756419445?s=20

Is it though?

When you add 2023 to the extremely low numbers from 2021 and 2022, it reads exactly like every other three year period prior, that is included in that chart accompanying that tweet

Fun with numbers and stats can get you every time

[eldee wins]

I agree. They are being bred for more speed. And the thoroughbreds have become more fragile because of weight of horse and jockey. Specially on dirt tracks. My guess next, Saratoga will change one Turf course to synthetic. Guaranteed! They lost so many turf races for poor weather. This will keep Turf horses entered. It’s no brainer now. Safety and keeping field size.

[shout1966]

https://twitter.com/foxhound6/status...756419445?s=20


Based on these numbers the highest death rate at Saratoga was 1.88 deaths per 1000 in 2014. It would seem that this years deaths are nothing more then a anomaly.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

i'm not reading many posts that describe how we've improved the vet exams or breed or medications, but have had an unfortunate cluster.

it's like the posts on CAW odds drops where nobody bothers to project will-pays.

Other than the nostalgia factor, and the two heart-breaking stretch breakdowns we've just had, things are a significantly BETTER, not worse.

if there's something beyond a simple bad luck clustering, the start would seem to logically consider the rain and flux of track conditions. Unfortunately that isn't an area I expect the tracks to flex. Otherwise, we could have weather like this meet and constantly cancel and reschedule cards and stakes days to a point where it would threaten to damage the meet financially almost as bad a worst case scenario such as these breakdowns.

Even with consideration of the rain, off tracks, track drainage, etc... it's a multi-faceted thing. If you watch New York Thunder's Amsterdam, other than running a big fig, his footwork and stretch run was not pretty. I had some negative notes on him although I did not wager on the Jerkens. Unless something comes up negative on a vet exam however, you can't start scratching stakes winners because of less than pretty way of going.

You’re the only person I saw mention this but I noticed it too . That horse did not look great at the end of the Amsterdam . I watch for how the horses stride out at the end of a race and he took some awkward steps late in that race . Call me crazy but I thought he finished precariously. Just like you are saying . I know nothing about the track depth or any of that but I do know with any sport that once the athlete is tired the chances of injury exponentially increase. And in these sprint races the horse is going hard for an extended period of time . My friend thought I was full of it . He wouldn’t even look at the replay of the Amsterdam . I thought that horse was close to taking a bad step in that race too.
The one thing that can’t be denied is Ny Thunder and Maple Leaf Mel are expending enormous amounts of energy to run that way .
I suspect some of these horses are extremely fatigued after these efforts . The trainers are admitting it whether they say that or not . One just has to look at the spacing of the stakes horses entries . The trainers want weeks and months between starts for these horses . Some of these races must really knock them on their asses. And face it, the best horses run the hardest and fastest especially in these short races . You gotta go hard from gate to wire . Of course, I’m not a doctor or sports trainer but there’s gotta be a price to be paid for athletes being trained to “perfection” like they are now . Yeah, they’re all faster , bigger or stronger or both . But in equine and humans these athletes appear to be more vulnerable to injury . The faster you can go , the faster you tire . The faster you can move the faster something can twist , tear or break . I mean , these problems are going across the sports world not just Equine. You expect in Horses, Football and Basketball. But we have Baseball teams that can’t keep players healthy and that’s freaking Baseball ! Cmon! Bigger and faster is great . But there’s a “give “ to every “take”. It’s just one thing to consider of course . But they may have to have mandatory spacing between starts to prevent exhaustion. The trainers are already practicing some of this . But when you have 500 k out there two or three weeks later and a horse is winning . That’s hard to pass .

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by eldee wins

My guess next, Saratoga will change one Turf course to synthetic. Guaranteed!

If they do……it would be crazy-reactionary. Stupid too.