Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

After months debating you Trumpites, I am getting fatigued. It just goes round and round in circles and I post the same rebuttal and data over and over again.

Of course you Trumpites are as dishonest as he is. Your premose from jump is all the mainstream epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, and health care professionals are all lying to you. One cosmic conspiracy after another.

Still waiting for verifiable evidence of your humongous conspiracy.
It is up to you Trumpites to prove this is another "fake moon landing conspiracy theory" staged and all set up in a movie studio in Burbank California

Seems Alex Jones has nothing on you guys.

if you ae fatigued. maybe you should put a lid on for the day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

After months debating you Trumpites, I am getting fatigued. It just goes round and round in circles and I post the same rebuttal and data over and over again.

Of course you Trumpites are as dishonest as he is. Your premose from jump is all the mainstream epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, and health care professionals are all lying to you. One cosmic conspiracy after another.

Still waiting for verifiable evidence of your humongous conspiracy.
It is up to you Trumpites to prove this is another "fake moon landing conspiracy theory" staged and all set up in a movie studio in Burbank California

Seems Alex Jones has nothing on you guys.

Maybe reading comprehension isn't your forte. Maybe we aren't saying covid isn't realz. Maybe we are saying that scientists aligned with the left AND/OR have a potential personal gain are playing covid up to the masses in whatever way is deemed most advantageous to them. Fauci is just one example of such a swamp creature. He has said various things the last six months in direct conflict with previously held statements and beliefs over a 35 year period. Did he not learn anything in 35 years and suddenly the lightbulb came on, or does he see a personal advantage in promoting himself at the expense of the public and nation? I think it's certainly a fair question to ask of him and many others out there carrying water where no water source exists. Maybe you can explain that if you aren't too fatigued?

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by tucker6

I clicked on your link Harry, which I rarely do. Don't you find it odd that on the tally by individual nursing home, that NY is the only state where total cases and total deaths per nursing home are the same? 82 cases and 82 deaths!! 68 cases and 68 deaths!! Seems odd doesn't it? Seems made up doesn't it? Or maybe undercounted in some way. It makes me want to know more about nursing home deaths in NY. How about you?

As to your statement above, it's curious that we knew about nursing homes being a "major problem" in late January when that Seattle nursing home had their meltdown. Why then did Cuomo issue an executive order to combine old people with covid patients in mid March, well after we knew about the "major problem"? Isn't that the very definition of negligence? Of manslaughter? Of genocide?

So you go on believing NYS did better than most, while many thousands of people mourn for their lost loved ones whose death was directly linked to Cuomo's policy. It's pathetic and anyone who attempts to brush this under the rug like you are complicit in murder.

Harry, have you had enough time to study the link you posted? Do you have any further comment on the sleazy nature of the numbers coming out of NY? Do you agree that Cuomo committed negligent homicide? Can you take off your partisan hat for a minute and just admit Cuomo did a horrible job?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

President Donald J. Trump

The saver of almost TWO MILLION American lives....wow...what a dude.

Nobel's a Lock now.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Nobel's a Lock now.

Nah, a more fitting title once he departs in 2025 might be President Emeritus. Has a nice ring to it.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Harry, have you had enough time to study the link you posted? Do you have any further comment on the sleazy nature of the numbers coming out of NY? Do you agree that Cuomo committed negligent homicide? Can you take off your partisan hat for a minute and just admit Cuomo did a horrible job?

C'mon, Tucker, cut Mr. Empty Suit some slack. The dimwits will tell you that what Cuomo did is Trump's fault.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Oh...so you wanted Trump to play a Hitler-like dictator and issue his edicts to all? But wouldn't that have fed into the dimwits' old meme that he was already a dictator?

He is on the way to the being the worse autocrat in presidential history.

Figures, you kiss his ass.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

He is on the way to the being the worse autocrat in presidential history.

On his way? What games are you actually playing here?

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

He is on the way to the being the worse autocrat in presidential history.

How? By handing off to states the management of the covid situation as they see fit in their jurisdictions?

Talk out of both sides of you mouth much?

Figures, you kiss his ass.

On the other hand, your nose is still wearing a deeply ingrained, unremovable brown tint from the days of your anointed one.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Where did you get 30-50%? There is no evidence herd immunity is achieved at those low percentages of the population. Partial herd immunity may slow the spread but it does not work as herd immunity established by an effective vaccine. Nor was "partial herd immunity responsible for the dramatic reducyion in viral load.

NY did the hard work of mitigation. There are plenty of non infected residents left to get sick. You gents encouragement to re-open the economy and stop mitigation without a proper scientific understanding of infection rate and herd immunity is what will re-kindle the embers of the coronavirus. Btw, asymptomatic carriers are still infected.

This site has done the best job of tracking cases, making projections, and doing just about everything else well. That's not my opinion. Other data people have been tracking all the major the models to see which performed best. So far this has been the winner.

https://covid19-projections.com/

You can check NYC (29.8%), Nassau County (36.8%), Suffolk County (29.4%) and Westchester (34.3%) infection rates as of today.

It's just like a said, 30%-35%.

This is kind of basic math.

If the virus is active in my area and I run into 100 random people, and 35% have already been infected and have recovered, my chances of running into someone infected that will give it to me are lower than at 5%, 10% etc...

It's doesn't matter what the exact herd immunity rate. The more people already infected and recovered the harder it gets to find someone that's infected to give it to you.

No one knows what the exact herd immunity rate is because no one knows how many people are naturally resistant or immune due to cross corona virus expose, T Cells, or other biological issues we don't fully understand yet (like children for example). We just know that when it hits an area, there is exponential growth for awhile, then when it gets into 10%-15%-20% infected range the exponential growth slows and cases start dropping even if the area is not locked down.

That's not to say masks and locking down don't slow it further. It just strongly indicates that THE REALITY for this virus is not equal to the standard theories on exponential growth and herd immunity because all people are not equally susceptible and all people are not equal spreaders OF THIS VIRUS.

Those two fundamental assumptions are in standard mathematical models and they are incorrect for this virus.

That why all the initial dire predictions were wrong and why it's slowing in places like Sweden and a big reason why it slowed dramatically in NYC and close suburbs. A ton of people got infected in NYC before dumb and dumber did anything about subways, buses etc.. So we quickly reached 10%-15% 20% and then it slowed.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by tucker6

Maybe reading comprehension isn't your forte. Maybe we aren't saying covid isn't realz. Maybe we are saying that scientists aligned with the left AND/OR have a potential personal gain are playing covid up to the masses in whatever way is deemed most advantageous to them. Fauci is just one example of such a swamp creature. He has said various things the last six months in direct conflict with previously held statements and beliefs over a 35 year period. Did he not learn anything in 35 years and suddenly the lightbulb came on, or does he see a personal advantage in promoting himself at the expense of the public and nation? I think it's certainly a fair question to ask of him and many others out there carrying water where no water source exists. Maybe you can explain that if you aren't too fatigued?

You should audition for Alex Jones.

Bring along your inane global warming conspiracies too.
See if Watts his name is free. H can supply tons of amateur unscientific data for both epidemiology and climatology.

He ain't no crackerjack radio weatherman for no reason.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This site has done the best job of tracking cases, making projections, and doing just about everything else well. That's not my opinion. Other data people have been tracking all the major the models to see which performed best. So far this has been the winner.

https://covid19-projections.com/

You can check NYC (29.8%), Nassau County (36.8%), Suffolk County (29.4%) and Westchester (34.3%) infection rates as of today.

It's just like a said, 30%-35%.

This is kind of basic math.

If the virus is active in my area and I run into 100 random people, and 35% have already been infected and have recovered, my chances of running into someone infected that will give it to me are lower than at 5%, 10% etc...

It's doesn't matter what the exact herd immunity rate. The more people already infected and recovered the harder it gets to find someone that's infected to give it to you.

No one knows what the exact herd immunity rate is because no one knows how many people are naturally resistant or immune due to cross corona virus expose, T Cells, or other biological issues we don't fully understand yet (like children for example). We just know that when it hits an area, there is exponential growth for awhile, then when it gets into 10%-15%-20% infected range the exponential growth slows and cases start dropping even if the area is not locked down.

That's not to say masks and locking down don't slow it further. It just strongly indicates that THE REALITY for this virus is not equal to the standard theories on exponential growth and herd immunity because all people are not equally susceptible and all people are not equal spreaders OF THIS VIRUS.

Those two fundamental assumptions are in standard mathematical models and they are incorrect for this virus.

That why all the initial dire predictions were wrong and why it's slowing in places like Sweden and a big reason why it slowed dramatically in NYC and close suburbs. A ton of people got infected in NYC before dumb and dumber did anything about subways, buses etc.. So we quickly reached 10%-15% 20% and then it slowed.

Estimates. Not good enough for all your proclamations. After searching that site found this...

This is an estimate of the total number of infected individuals by each date. The infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals did not get tested due to 1) they are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic or 2) lack of available testing. As of mid-June, we estimate that the true number of infections in the US is likely ~5x higher than reported cases. In March and April, when testing was not as prevalent, we estimate that ratio to be closer to 10-15x..

Only found absolute numbers not percentages. Where are the percentages? There is no conclusive evidence herd immunity is achieved with only 30% of the population infected. That is your speculation. We had this conversation before.The disease is slowed yes, but not eliminated. Pleased stop trying to re-invent epidemiology.

Not from me, but from the Mayo clinic, and WHO.....

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/d...-need-to-know/

What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.

Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. For example, those who survived the 1918 flu (influenza) pandemic were later immune to infection with the H1N1 flu, a subtype of influenza A. During the 2009-10 flu season, H1N1 caused the respiratory infection in humans that was commonly referred to as swine flu.

However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

YouTube (Short URL)

Who agrees. 60% us probably what is needed.

YouTube (Short URL)

[classhandicapper]

Estimates. Not good enough for all your proclamations. After searching that site found this...

You accept global warming models that have been wrong for decades but this model that has been amazingly accurate making projections based on advanced mathematics and machine learning you won't accept.

When he says it's 30%-35%, it's not coming out of his ass. It coming from hard data based on actual positives, antibody positives, deaths, and all other relevant data that a very advanced mathematical model is evaluating so he can make all these accurate projections.

Why don't you just admit a conversation with you is a waste of time because you have no desire to learn anything that conflicts with your politically motivated delusions?

I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong if we get to that point, but so far all the data suggests initially the infection growth rate is rapid until you hit that 10%-20% infection point and then the growth rate slows, the new cases slow, and then they decline rapidly.

[classhandicapper]

Only found absolute numbers not percentages.

If you go into the state or local data near the bottom of the homepage there are multiple graphs and stats at the detailed level.

For example, here is Nassau County

https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-nassau

It says 36.8% total infected

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You accept global warming models that have been wrong for decades but this model that has been amazingly accurate making projections based on advanced mathematics and machine learning you won't accept.

When he says it's 30%-35%, it's not coming out of his ass. It coming from hard data based on actual positives, antibody positives, deaths, and all other relevant data that a very advanced mathematical model is evaluating so he can make all these accurate projections.

Why don't you just admit a conversation with you is a waste of time because you have no desire to learn anything that conflicts with your politically motivated delusions?

I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong if we get to that point, but so far all the data suggests initially the infection growth rate is rapid until you hit that 10%-20% infection point and then the growth rate slows, the new cases slow, and then they decline rapidly.

So you too are are an amateur climatologist as well as an amateur epidemiologist?

Btw, Dr Fauci socked it to Rand Paul who proposed the same crap you do.
Telling him he has no understanding of herd immunity. Fauci said the antibody level of NY was about 22% contrary to your machine learning site..

You and some non mainstream studies have no solide evidence the reason NY got the virus under control was some sort of "semi-herd immunity".

Fauci said hard work, masks, social distancing and mitigation measures did it.
I know the mainstream experts are all lying to you Trumpites.

My Trumpite Fatigue is really acting up.
I am done with you conspiracy nuts for a while.