Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

NY's percentage of deaths at nursing homes is lower than some states because NYS's overall infection rate is so much higher than most states (30%-35% infected in NYC, Long Island, Westchester etc..). The deaths from non nursing home patients are also very high. So the nursing home patients make up a smaller percentage than some states. But absolute numbers are very high. Also, some of the information about nursing home deaths in NY is being withheld because Cuomo doesn't want to let the public know his poor decision making lead to a massive number of unnecessary deaths.

The NY Times is just an extension of democrat party. It's not a news organization. Using the Times for a source is like asking a coal miner in West Virginia for information on global temperatures. You can't take it seriously.

NYS infetction rates were higher because that's where the epicenter was. Amnd first hit. A percentage of total infections is the only statistical test that makes sense.

Unless you or another woefully ignorant Trumpite can prone Cuomo was responsible for the epidemic hitting NYS. Of course Cuomo did bring the original massive infection of NY state down to the lowest numbers of any state hit.

In spite of Trumps inaction and ineptitude.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

My message was to PA not you. He touted Mexico and the UK early on when they took a laisez faire hands off approach.

The lockddowns and other mitigation measures change fatalities and suffering. Don't believe me, look up the Asian countries.

Active efforts to mitigate the virus, are sound epidemiological principles They are way more then just preventing overwhelming hospitals. Reduce total viral load and everything else follows.

Better than you touting (and continuing to tout) the thing that has KILLED this country.

But that's what you wanted from the start. A dead economy.

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

NYS infetction rates were higher because that's where the epicenter was. Amnd first hit. A percentage of total infections is the only statistical test that makes sense.

Unless you or another woefully ignorant Trumpite can prone Cuomo was responsible for the epidemic hitting NYS. Of course Cuomo did bring the original massive infection of NY state down to the lowest numbers of any state hit.

In spite of Trumps inaction and ineptitude.

Who was responsible for policy in NYS? Cuomo was. If you can give Cuomo credit for bringing the numbers down, then don't you have to give him credit for getting the infection numbers up high as well? How can you assign only the good results to a politician when they were in charge the whole way through? You see any hypocrisy there?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by hcap

........ Of course Cuomo did bring the original massive infection of NY state down to the lowest numbers of any state hit.......

When there is no one left to infect shouldn't the numbers be the lowest of any state? This was not a Cuomo success it was an act of nature.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AndyC

When there is no one left to infect shouldn't the numbers be the lowest of any state? This was not a Cuomo success it was an act of nature.

It's insane how they're able to bamboozle everyone when they control the media...

This country is super-****ed.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

NYS infetction rates were higher because that's where the epicenter was. Amnd first hit. A percentage of total infections is the only statistical test that makes sense.

Unless you or another woefully ignorant Trumpite can prone Cuomo was responsible for the epidemic hitting NYS. Of course Cuomo did bring the original massive infection of NY state down to the lowest numbers of any state hit.

In spite of Trumps inaction and ineptitude.

I agree it would have been bad in NY no matter who was in charge because it hit here first and we have a dense population, but Cuomo and de Blasio (dumb and dumber) were VERY LATE to do anything.

There is simply no way around the fact that Cuomo returned positive people to nursing homes when it was already clear that was the high risk group. That's different than the very early outbreak in the west that started in a nursing home and accounts for a lot of deaths in that state.

And no, percentage of population is not the right way to do it because each state has a different percentage of people in nursing homes, different infection rates, different health in the general population etc...

As to the true number of deaths. This is from the very anti Trump pro democrat AP. So you know the truth is even worse than they'll admit.

https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f

New York’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes, already among the highest in the nation, could actually be a significant undercount. Unlike every other state with major outbreaks, New York only counts residents who died on nursing home property and not those who were transported to hospitals and died there.

That statistic could add thousands to the state’s official care home death toll of just over 6,600. But so far the administration of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo has refused to divulge the number, leading to speculation the state is manipulating the figures to make it appear it is doing better than other states and to make a tragic situation less dire.

“That’s a problem, bro,” state Sen. Gustavo Rivera, a Democrat, told New York Health Commissioner Howard Zucker during a legislative hearing on nursing homes earlier this month. “It seems, sir, that in this case you are choosing to define it differently so that you can look better.”

Another group of numbers also suggests an undercount. State health department surveys show 21,000 nursing home beds are lying empty this year, 13,000 more than expected — an increase of almost double the official state nursing home death tally. While some of that increase can be attributed to fewer new admissions and people pulling their loved ones out, it suggests that many others who aren’t there anymore died.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

When there is no one left to infect shouldn't the numbers be the lowest of any state? This was not a Cuomo success it was an act of nature.

It's guess it's difficult for some people to understand that when you've already killed many of the vulnerable and lot of the rest have already died or been infected the numbers have to start looking better.

Seriously, the best estimates for NYC, Long island and parts of Westchester are in the 30% to 35% infected range. Unquestionably part of NY's recent success is how bad it got so quickly at the beginning. We are experiencing the upside of partial herd immunity. What we don't know yet is what percentage of the 65%-70% that haven't been infected yet have natural immunity or at least resistance that would make them asymptomatic. But we do know that children as a group seem to have some immunity or resistance. So that's another batch you can add to the 30% - 35%. NYC has to be getting closer to real herd immunity where the caseload gets so low there are other communicable diseases to be more worried about. Areas upstate probably still have further to go.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

NYT:Nearly 40k flew to U.S. from China after Trump's coronavirus travel ban
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-tr...deb1ce0b3.html

His so-called ban did diddly squat

No we suffered 200,000 deaths out of 2.2 million if we did absolutely nothing.
Even your moron had to do something. But it was not enough. If he had started earlier and set up a national plan instead of passing the buck to the states, estimates are at least one half of the fatalities could have been avoided

WHOOP-DI-DO Go Trump!

Trump's actions saved 1.8 million lives.

Dems would not have banned travel from China and Europe, so we would probably be well over 1 million dead by now.

National plans make NO SENSE.
Control HAS to be at state level, with Federal providing back up and resources, which Trump not only did, but he received PRAISE for his help from multiple DEMOCRAT governors.

You know nothing.
Stop shouting.
YOU are only spreading the virus with your big mouth yapping all day long.

[PaceAdvantage]

President Donald J. Trump

The saver of almost TWO MILLION American lives....wow...what a dude.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

NYS infetction rates were higher because that's where the epicenter was. Amnd first hit. A percentage of total infections is the only statistical test that makes sense.

Unless you or another woefully ignorant Trumpite can prone Cuomo was responsible for the epidemic hitting NYS. Of course Cuomo did bring the original massive infection of NY state down to the lowest numbers of any state hit.

In spite of Trumps inaction and ineptitude.

why not total deaths? one of the top in the country

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree it would have been bad in NY no matter who was in charge because it hit here first and we have a dense population, but Cuomo and de Blasio (dumb and dumber) were VERY LATE to do anything.

There is simply no way around the fact that Cuomo returned positive people to nursing homes when it was already clear that was the high risk group. That's different than the very early outbreak in the west that started in a nursing home and accounts for a lot of deaths in that state.

And no, percentage of population is not the right way to do it because each state has a different percentage of people in nursing homes, different infection rates, different health in the general population etc...

As to the true number of deaths. This is from the very anti Trump pro democrat AP. So you know the truth is even worse than they'll admit.

https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f

We do not know what happenned on other nursing hones. In NY, at the beginning, it looked like hospitals would be reaching their capacity and something at to be done. Sure, there were mistakes made just like nursing homes all over the world. One of which was not waiting long enough after a recovering covid patient was in fact fully recovered and no longer infectious. At the timed at least 10 days was the CDC guideline. Cuomo was guilty of not monitoring for full recovery before moving patients. Additionally

Cuomo also said it appears nursing home staff members were the source of infections in those facilities, where the disease ravaged the vulnerable residents. On Long Island alone, more than 1,600 people in nursing homes are confirmed or presumed to have died of COVID-19.

This wss pretty much the case in other states as well.

But there was no malignant avoidance of the pandemic telling New Yorker's "it was a hoax" and would go away all by itself when it got warmer, and meanwhile gom ahead and inject some bleach andtale worthless drugs like hydroxychloroquine.

The bottom line is NY did much better than other states under exposure to the early unknown and worst part of the epidemic. And at the moment has done the most to turn around the numbers.

You Trumpites are simply distracting from the piss poor job your moron as done

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's guess it's difficult for some people to understand that when you've already killed many of the vulnerable and lot of the rest have already died or been infected the numbers have to start looking better.

Seriously, the best estimates for NYC, Long island and parts of Westchester are in the 30% to 35% infected range. Unquestionably part of NY's recent success is how bad it got so quickly at the beginning. We are experiencing the upside of partial herd immunity. What we don't know yet is what percentage of the 65%-70% that haven't been infected yet have natural immunity or at least resistance that would make them asymptomatic. But we do know that children as a group seem to have some immunity or resistance. So that's another batch you can add to the 30% - 35%. NYC has to be getting closer to real herd immunity where the caseload gets so low there are other communicable diseases to be more worried about. Areas upstate probably still have further to go.

Where did you get 30-50%? There is no evidence herd immunity is achieved at those low percentages of the population. Partial herd immunity may slow the spread but it does not work as herd immunity established by an effective vaccine. Nor was "partial herd immunity responsible for the dramatic reducyion in viral load.

NY did the hard work of mitigation. There are plenty of non infected residents left to get sick. You gents encouragement to re-open the economy and stop mitigation without a proper scientific understanding of infection rate and herd immunity is what will re-kindle the embers of the coronavirus. Btw, asymptomatic carriers are still infected.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

President Donald J. Trump

The saver of almost TWO MILLION American lives....wow...what a dude.

And the bamboozler of people who mouth that nonsense. Forgetting that 2 million was the early projections IF ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WAS DONE. Your moron passed the hard work onto the governors and they did something.

But without a coordinated NATIONAL plan at least twice as many deaths as a national plan occurred.

[hcap]

After months debating you Trumpites, I am getting fatigued. It just goes round and round in circles and I post the same rebuttal and data over and over again.

Of course you Trumpites are as dishonest as he is. Your premose from jump is all the mainstream epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, and health care professionals are all lying to you. One cosmic conspiracy after another.

Still waiting for verifiable evidence of your humongous conspiracy.
It is up to you Trumpites to prove this is another "fake moon landing conspiracy theory" staged and all set up in a movie studio in Burbank California

Seems Alex Jones has nothing on you guys.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

And the bamboozler of people who mouth that nonsense. Forgetting that 2 million was the early projections IF ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WAS DONE. Your moron passed the hard work onto the governors and they did something.

But without a coordinated NATIONAL plan at least twice as many deaths as a national plan occurred.

Oh...so you wanted Trump to play a Hitler-like dictator and issue his edicts to all? But wouldn't that have fed into the dimwits' old meme that he was already a dictator?