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Old 09-19-2020, 06:03 AM   #1
Half Smoke
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Posts: 250
edge on NFL parlays


parlays are not my thing, but they are for many

half point parlay cards, very popular in LV and elsewhere (still, as far as I know) offer a way to potentially get a mathematical edge

with a half point parlay card all lines are moved to the half point if they're not already on it so that there can be no pushes

so, if a line at 6 is moved to 5.5 the best bet would be on the fave - if it is moved to 6.5 the best bet is on the dog (doing no handicapping - considering only the line itself)

the link and the pic show the potential edge according to statistician Mike Shackleford who runs a website

he emphasizes that these calculations are estimates - that the edge quoted is not set in stone

interesting stuff (to me anyway) even if you don't normally bet parlays
the image is blurry and hard to read, but is easily readable at the link

down further at the link it is shown that the edge is much stronger if it moves the line off of a 3 or a 7

but, I think, not quite as strong as shown, because I think this was calculated before extra point attempts were moved back causing more misses

a man thinks that by mouthing hard words that he understands hard things............Herman Melville

Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-19-2020 at 06:05 AM.
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