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Old 01-13-2021, 10:36 PM   #61
dnlgfnk
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
This is a question.

Let's assume you have a horse you believe had a terrible but somewhat hidden trip last out and he figures to get a great trip this time. Depending on the field he draws into, his odds today will vary.

If he draws into a tough spot he might be 15-1 or 20-1 and if he draws into an easy spot he might be 7/2.

To me, either way, if I am right about the trips there's probably value on him in both spots even if the public odds are telling me his probability of winning is different in those two fields. The only difference to me is that if he's 7/2 I'd be more apt to use him on top heavier and if he was 15-1 or 20-1 because of the tough field and might not win anyway, I'd use him a little less on top and use him 2nd and 3rd with some other horses trying to get that value on my ticket.

The probability of winning may change the way I structure the bet but it won't change the fact that I'm interested in that horse. So what I do really need the public odds for other than confirming what I already know, that one field was tougher than the other?
The costly mistake I made in the past when judging a trip was to decide about a horse in the manner you suggest above. Now it's far more the case of detesting the chances of a low bet horse, ideally two, in order to boost the pct. chance of interesting others' winning.

Your above horse in that tough field could likely encounters a significant rival or two I can toss. That's far less likely in the easy field where he's 7/2 and the second or third choice, against a formidable foe with his own advantages in an easier field.
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Old 01-14-2021, 11:06 AM   #62
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Handicappers : and Maggie

Maggie Brings a lot to the table.

While her husband isn't (yet) in the tp trainer category, I find her comments f the entries prior t post time to be useful , especially when betting the exotics.

Certainly superior to TVG (zero info), and Gulfstream , which, inmho isn't as informative
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Old 01-14-2021, 10:01 PM   #63
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Certainly superior to TVG (zero info), and Gulfstream , which, inmho isn't as informative

I will admit to having TVG on mute for the majority of time it's on my screen, but I will give them credit that their west coast team of interviewers get some good nuggets in the paddock. This was a great story from the other day for example:


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Old 01-17-2021, 09:23 PM   #64
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I always check A Serling when I play NYRA helps me narrow a race down
I just eliminate his top 3 picks 😂
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Old 01-18-2021, 08:48 PM   #65
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I always wondered if anyone handicaps favorites. I dont mean someone who posts randomly with usually favorites or low odds horses for every race. Roughly the number stands at 35% when you search on google, but what is that number for? All the races in every year or even all the races from the very start of horse racing? I was wondering if someone takes that thirty five percent and increases that percentage by narrowing down favorite type races. It would have to be difficult to make a profit especially betting the same amount on each horse. If you went on a small winning streak and consistently hit horses posted you possibly could make a profit. Something like this would be very difficult to do if you think about it, but definitely interesting.
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Old 01-18-2021, 09:37 PM   #66
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Doug Salvatore, but i don't think he makes public picks anymore
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Old 01-18-2021, 09:59 PM   #67
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Beyer of course in print has always been someone I've had great respect for.
Serling has the gift of gab, I'm always interested in what he has to say but yea if I still played I'd listen in small doses. Harvey's old replay show had tons of greats on there back in the 80s-90s, Pricci was always a favorite of mine but there were many good handicappers on there back then, Cornman, Litfin, Finley, a guy I don't even remember the name of but he followed trainers, when the mercury drops Levine pops, do remember that. Recorded that show on VHS every week during the winter months, off-season for me. Probably should mention Brad Thomas too, the NJ tracks had a replay show I'd sometimes catch late night.
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Old 01-19-2021, 08:55 AM   #68
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Harvey's old replay show had tons of greats on there back in the 80s-90s, Pricci was always a favorite of mine but there were many good handicappers on there back then, Cornman, Litfin, Finley...
At one point I heard Corman didn't want to give out horses on the show anymore because they were taking too much money.

To me, he was easily the best.

There are loads of terrific public and track handicappers now, but they are all mostly looking at similar figures, watching the same replays, discussing the same trips and biases etc.. He was ahead of the handicapping curve back then. He brought insights and information to the table that weren't fully understood or available to everyone at that time. Maybe the game caught up to him now, but back then it was different.

I remember one summer in Saratoga decades ago I happened to be hanging out watching replays at the same TV as him and a friend for a few days. Just listening to him discuss races after the fact would always set off light bulbs.
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Old 01-19-2021, 11:32 AM   #69
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Old 01-19-2021, 12:02 PM   #70
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Andy Serling has done a nice job of highlighting interesting/useable mid-range prices, and pointing out overpriced contenders.

Especially lately, his show with The Big A, has been less about trying to pick the most likeliest winner of every race, but more about value considerations.
[shouts to Big A Stabile, while his technique is more straightforward likely winners regardless of price, - for that mention of "Baba" r4? the other day in a huge 25/1+ price include winner]

That fact (consideration of value by Andy) can be missed, if you just peek at selections, or tune in to a part of a segment.

Often (but not always) he tends to put the horse-to-beat 2nd in interesting races, and the strong chalk first, in more straight forward races...

Good food for thought, as sometimes they win, sometimes they fill out a Tri, sometimes I disagree (while exercising the thought process involved in handicapping a consideration or trip). Just as valuable are the same considerations for say why a Chalk or a 2nd-choice is likely to be overbet.


Had a lucky month, and played pretty much only maidens and/or large fields at several different tracks, but Aqueduct (and occasionally Triple Clowns!) are the only shows that I've watched.
Sometimes lucky is good. I don't know what happened first, but my old black cat "Mimi" came over and gave me a nose kiss and head rub while betting a cold exacta with some long-shots, whose connections jumped off the screen to me, yesterday, and they came in for ~$180 for each $2 punch. Quit for the day and broke out the treats... Hard game to break even in, and when I get lucky enough to win, I try to value the dollar the same. When I lose many a tough beat or a 'shut-out' that wins I take a break and fight the urge to chase.


Want to give a shout out to my friends at Triple Clowns, as well.
Nice group of people, and in addition to the Racing Stars that we recognize at first glance, they have some solid Horseplayers of the type that we'd enjoy breaking down a card with on the show. I've been fortunate to meet a few, and they genuinely do a nice job, with insights, and often knowledge of a home track.
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Old 01-19-2021, 12:07 PM   #71
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Andy Serling has done a nice job of highlighting interesting/useable mid-range prices, and pointing out overpriced contenders.

Especially lately, his show with The Big A, has been less about trying to pick the most likeliest winner of every race, but more about value considerations.

Good food for thought, as sometimes they win, sometimes they fill out a Tri, sometimes I disagree (while exercising the thought process involved in handicapping a consideration or trip). Just as valuable are the same considerations for say why a Chalk or a 2nd-choice is likely to be overbet.

Nice group of people, and in addition to the Racing Stars that we recognize at first glance, they have some solid Horseplayers of the type that we'd enjoy breaking down a card with on the show. I've been fortunate to meet a few, and they genuinely do a nice job, with insights, and often knowledge of a home track.
The NYRA guys are the only handicappers where I feel like it's two really knowledgeable players talking like we used to at the track in the "old days" (actually Andy and Anthony are quite a bit smarter than the people I hung out with). Part of that is there being two of them, of course, so it's a conversation, but you can tell they've done their homework and they're clever. Maggie is great too, excellent observations and she's right quite often (plus I have no skills in that area so her opinions are valuable).

Also, for a single track, Brad Thomas is as good as anyone in the game. If it's Monmouth, he knows the deal.

No disrespect to your show Robert as I haven't listened to it enough to have an opinion yet.
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Old 01-19-2021, 12:28 PM   #72
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The NYRA guys are the only handicappers where I feel like it's two really knowledgeable players talking like we used to at the track in the "old days" (actually Andy and Anthony are quite a bit smarter than the people I hung out with). Part of that is there being two of them, of course, so it's a conversation, but you can tell they've done their homework and they're clever. Maggie is great too, excellent observations and she's right quite often (plus I have no skills in that area so her opinions are valuable).

Also, for a single track, Brad Thomas is as good as anyone in the game. If it's Monmouth, he knows the deal.

No disrespect to your show Robert as I haven't listened to it enough to have an opinion yet.
1 - Triple Clowns isn't my show (but thank you for the reference, and I get that you may have used the term to refer to my show as in shoutout. - Helped them some, I don't have the gift of gab, and been a hectic year (wish I had been better health and preparation and video quality in some of the appearances), but my point there = they have a legit good team, great star guest appearances, and a cast of 'regular' horseplayers who really do a great job and I feel the horseplayers on PA would connect with them as the type of 'Local' players you'd see in a clubhouse or your favorite guys on the rail... Their show is usually slow to develop and takes some patience, but rewarding.
There's a whole network of different racing horseplayers and webcasts on twitter and other cool platforms, that I'm just learning about, and would be of interest to us players.

2. Yea, I love the NYRA cast and show. - My style and bankroll and life right now doesn't call for knowing every horse by heart, and watching every race, and knowing every trip, and knowing things like who was entered when and scratched for a better spot, etc... So that's a nice thing to have as a resource - a team that does all that, and does it well, with character.

3. Brad Thomas seems like a real hardworking PRO. I haven't had the opportunity to follow him consistently, but when I do, it's obvious that he is dedicated, smart, and professional.


side note -

any talking horses/NYRA-circuit fans feel free to private message me for an additional tip
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Old 01-19-2021, 01:33 PM   #73
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I was lucky enough to spend some time with Brad discussing races and watching replays together. Besides being super nice and generous with his insights, imo the thing that makes him stand out to me is that he sees things in the replays that are not obvious and that most people are not even looking for.
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Old 01-23-2021, 12:26 AM   #74
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