Influence of Various Factors on Final Odds

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by aaron

I agree with you and I am sure your approach is accurate. One thing,I can tell you and I don't mean this in a disrespectful way, because I see all the work you have done, but if you want to take the time or if someone has a data base and just tracks DD will pays on a regular basis,I aim willing to guess that the favorite in the double is 1st or 2nd choice more than 84 % of the time in NY. Other than knowing which horse will be 1st or 2nd choice, this doesn't mean much to me.I agree that we no longer have the home track environment and certainly some out of the out of town town tracks using the DD probables might not come close to 84%1st or 2nd choice.

No disrespect received. (Thank you.)

You might be right, but without real data - and I mean THOUSANDS of races, it is really still anecdotal.

However
I would suggest that the will-pay approach (as you suggested) could be huge because it is the equivalent of having FINAL ODDS for the 2nd race BEFORE the horses load the gate.

Brilliant idea. I would say that your logic WILL stand the test if data were accumulated.


Of course it would be a little wobbly in the case of very high-priced horses but that is to be expected anyway.

[OverlayHunter]

Dave, Aaron, class, Tom - thank you all for your insights.

[OverlayHunter]

I can tell you that the approach I offer translates into the projected favorite actually being the 1st or 2nd choice 84% of the time.

Dave, for the favorite and second favorite, can you please share how close your approach gets to the final actual odds the horses go off at. Let's say, for example, that in 3 different races the favorites go off at even money, 2:1, and 3:1. What would your program have typically projected the final odds of those horses to be?

Thank you for your assistance.