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Old 03-10-2018, 01:22 AM   #241
DGroundhog
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Yes, the tracks have always been customer-first.



OK, your position is the race tracks are horrible businessmen and they hate the customers.

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Old 03-10-2018, 01:27 AM   #242
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...and how do you propose race tracks stop that 'last dump'? The 'last dump' is very different from odds changing during the race - which, unless you want to stop betting when the horses start to load is inevitable.

Several years back, Belmont (maybe all NY tracks) locked betting when horses started to load. I have never heard so much bitching as when pools would lock when horses started to load - but hey, at least the odds weren't changing during the race.

There is literally no pleasing some of you people. What do you want? No odds changes during the race - or no 'final dump' odds change?
Here is a solution to attempt to stop the 'last dump' situation. Random pool closings. Sometimes you can bet until the gate opens, sometimes you are locked at 2 minutes to post. It's all random. Better get your bets in early!

You think that will stop complaints - or increase them? It WILL force (some) people to bet earlier, and eliminate, occasionally, such dramatic swings in the pools. Maybe.

What is a better solution?
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Old 03-10-2018, 01:47 AM   #243
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In the last 3 days, the top choice in the last dump has won 12 of 32 races. The second choice in the last dump has also won 12 of 32 races. So the top 2 choices have won 75% of the races.

This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.

It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.

I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:11 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmVTr9hq8Q

This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.

It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.

I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE
The post time favorite wins approximately 35% of the time. 12 of 32 is 37.5% of the time, and from this - about as small a sample as could be reasonably expected to gather any sort of reasonable data from - that seems within the typical standard deviation of win percentage (less than 30 samples is really not a good sample size, 32 is barely passing).

If there are heavy favorites over representing the sample set - then the win percentage would probably increase. I see nothing in the sample set that would suggest anything nefarious is occurring.

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Old 03-10-2018, 02:18 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
OK, your position is the race tracks are horrible businessmen and they hate the customers.

And your position is, WHAT? That the racetracks are "GREAT businessmen", who "LOVE their customers"?
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:22 AM   #246
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And your position is, WHAT? That the racetracks are "GREAT businessmen", who "LOVE their customers"?
I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:31 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
The post time favorite wins approximately 35% of the time. 12 of 32 is 37.5% of the time, and from this - about as small a sample as could be reasonably expected to gather any sort of reasonable data from - that seems within the typical standard deviation of win percentage (less than 30 samples is really not a good sample size, 32 is barely passing).

If there are heavy favorites over representing the sample set - then the win percentage would probably increase. I see nothing in the sample set that would suggest anything nefarious is occurring.
Is he speaking about the lowest priced horse on the board after the last betting or the horse who got the most money in the final rush of betting? I understood it to be the latter.

Not sure how you quantify it but those runners getting a "disproportionate" amount of money on the final click relative to the betting during the previous 20 minutes is what I care about. I bet that would be an interesting report.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:33 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.
I'm sure that AlsoEligible and Toddbowker are great guys...but I won't pry them for any information. I've been in the game for a long while myself...and I've conversed with several high-ranking racetrack officials in my day. I've also attended several racing-board meetings in my jurisdiction...and have even stood up to speak on two occasions, trying to voice the concerns of the bettors on several of the key issues on the then agenda. Consequently...I learned all that I need to know about the "leadership" of this game. IMO...it leaves a lot to be desired.

Last edited by thaskalos; 03-10-2018 at 02:43 AM.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:40 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.
..and I would add that they appear to LOVE this industry. I do as well, but have a different perspective. Much of it as a typical fan.

As a typical fan, I would present that there are a significant number of people at the racetrack that I really only get mild amusement from. They complain, every race is fixed, the jockey didn't ride right, they almost bet that horse, the odds changed, etc. etc. etc.

If you hang out at the race track with any reasonable frequency and are objective, you might be thinking, yeah - there is some truth to that.

The racetracks don't hate you. They want to deliver a product you are satisfied with. They aren't terrible businessmen who profit when you don't cash. Almost everybody in the industry likes it, loves it or has made it their life (probably tending towards the latter) - even though it is a failing product that needs new blood. That is a simple and undeniable fact.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:48 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
..and I would add that they appear to LOVE this industry. I do as well, but have a different perspective. Much of it as a typical fan.

As a typical fan, I would present that there are a significant number of people at the racetrack that I really only get mild amusement from. They complain, every race is fixed, the jockey didn't ride right, they almost bet that horse, the odds changed, etc. etc. etc.

If you hang out at the race track with any reasonable frequency and are objective, you might be thinking, yeah - there is some truth to that.

The racetracks don't hate you. They want to deliver a product you are satisfied with. They aren't terrible businessmen who profit when you don't cash. Almost everybody in the industry likes it, loves it or has made it their life (probably tending towards the latter) - even though it is a failing product that needs new blood. That is a simple and undeniable fact.
You are entitled to your opinion...even if that opinion is misguided. I think most of us here have been around the block a few times in this game...and we pretty much know what the "racing industry" thinks of its customers. As far as I am concerned...a "failing product" is exactly what this industry deserves.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:51 AM   #251
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Is he speaking about the lowest priced horse on the board after the last betting or the horse who got the most money in the final rush of betting? I understood it to be the latter.

Not sure how you quantify it but those runners getting a "disproportionate" amount of money on the final click relative to the betting during the previous 20 minutes is what I care about. I bet that would be an interesting report.
The 35% win percentage has been a fairly constant stat for a number of years. I don't think it has dipped below 33% in a while. It may have. I don't track that stuff year to year.

It is the final odds. I don't know if anybody has tracked 2 MTP favorite stats or not, or if that has changed over the years with computer aided betting or not. It might be a valuable analysis.

A large number of bettors wait until less than 2 MTP. I understand why they do it, and the computer age may have influenced the stats significantly. I would presume so, but have no data to back it up. Sharps are gonna sharp. Hard to defend against that.

My best defense would be the 'random stop betting' thing or implementing some sort of restriction on large bets late an multiple small bets from a single source late. I don't have a cure all that would be acceptable to all, and as AE pointed out, hindering the 'whales' isn't something tracks are really keen on doing without currently - at least not without some sort of protection for them that is acceptable.

A LOT of people bet late. No frequent bettor can deny this. Whether it is whales or small timers. Everybody waits.
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:58 AM   #252
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The 35% win percentage has been a fairly constant stat for a number of years. I don't think it has dipped below 33% in a while. It may have. I don't track that stuff year to year.

It is the final odds. I don't know if anybody has tracked 2 MTP favorite stats or not, or if that has changed over the years with computer aided betting or not. It might be a valuable analysis.

A large number of bettors wait until less than 2 MTP. I understand why they do it, and the computer age may have influenced the stats significantly. I would presume so, but have no data to back it up. Sharps are gonna sharp. Hard to defend against that.

My best defense would be the 'random stop betting' thing or implementing some sort of restriction on large bets late an multiple small bets from a single source late. I don't have a cure all that would be acceptable to all, and as AE pointed out, hindering the 'whales' isn't something tracks are really keen on doing without currently - at least not without some sort of protection for them that is acceptable.

A LOT of people bet late. No frequent bettor can deny this. Whether it is whales or small timers. Everybody waits.
Why would late money be smarter (or more accurate) than other money.

My issue is more to do with disproportionate betting in the final minute and nothing to do with favorite or any price on the board.

A horse who is sitting at 12-1 on the board for all of the wagering that goes off at 6-1 at post when a ton of money comes through on him in the final click is concerning to me. Happens way, way, way too much for what would be logical to an average IQ person. The amount of time this late "rush" of money is accurate defies what is normal in betting historically.

Saying it another way, if favorites win 35% but I told you that the horse getting the most proportionate money in the final click is winning 45% of the time, would that concern you? (By proportionate I mean the overall percentage of money they have wagered on them in the final click).
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Old 03-10-2018, 03:02 AM   #253
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I'm sure that AlsoEligible and Toddbowker are great guys...but I won't pry them for any information. I've been in the game for a long while myself...and I've conversed with several high-ranking racetrack officials in my day. I've also attended several racing-board meetings in my jurisdiction...and have even stood up to speak on two occasions, trying to voice the concerns of the bettors on several of the key issues on the then agenda. Consequently...I learned all that I need to know about the "leadership" of this game. IMO...it leaves a lot to be desired.
Without knowing more about what concerns were expressed, to whom and what the responses were, it's hard to make any sort of statement on that.

Some people are better than others at listening and responding to concerns. Some things probably aren't likely to change anytime soon - even if everybody were to agree that things should change.
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Old 03-10-2018, 03:10 AM   #254
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Without knowing more about what concerns were expressed, to whom and what the responses were, it's hard to make any sort of statement on that.

Some people are better than others at listening and responding to concerns. Some things probably aren't likely to change anytime soon - even if everybody were to agree that things should change.
Additionally, if there are other gaming options available - then the owners might compare profits/expenditures of one form vs the other.

Not hard to guess who would lose (heavily) in that sort of evaluation.
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Old 03-10-2018, 03:19 AM   #255
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You are entitled to your opinion...even if that opinion is misguided. I think most of us here have been around the block a few times in this game...and we pretty much know what the "racing industry" thinks of its customers. As far as I am concerned...a "failing product" is exactly what this industry deserves.
I would agree the industry is failing, but I believe it is because younger people would rather sit at a slot machine and push a button rather than invest (how long?) time into becoming an educated horse player.

Even if their chances of winning is greater playing horses than slots or the lottery - slots or lottery is a dumb play that any imbecile can win.

The biggest problem is attracting younger fans more interested in mindless gaming with bells and whistles and OMG there is an ELLEN slot machine I can play!

I would advocate race tracks cater more to the sports betting crowd. Get every MMA or boxing PPV fight, fantasy football crowds - all that. Throw up some horse racing signals, offer an analyst and maybe a 'group play' sort of format so people can just ride along the coat tails of somebody who knows the game and might hit a decent payout once in a while.

Marketing can go a long ways.
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