My favorite race shape(s)

[Niko]

Well the updates to the book are almost done-if I wouldn't get sidetracked by this site and other things....lol. I just have to try to figure out how to get a pretty cover and a couple things. This isn't part of the method but should be of interest to some. They're two of my favorite scenarios. Maybe someone with a database can verify they work? I know they do if selective.

except;
In our race examples I mentioned race shapes. This isn’t a new concept for those that are fairly serious about horse racing. Randy Guiles and James Quinn have done extensive high quality work on the subject. I suggest you do an internet search to get more background on the subject if you’re interested. In this book I’d like to cover one new concept about race shapes that I’ve never seen anywhere else. It happens often enough that it pays to watch for it and will pay for the cost of this book alone if you use it right.

There are some people out there that claim they can consistently predict who will win the race based on race shapes. I don’t have that skill. Sure it’s easy to pick which horses will be in the back or who will be in the front, but in most races it’s hard to tell which horses will benefit the most from the race shape and probable pace scenarios. There sure are a lot of experts after the race is run though.

I’ve seen race shapes with a lot of early speed won by a horse that gets an easy lead and wins wire to wire. I’ve seen many horses that could win coming off the pace rushed up to contend for the lead early and vice versa ruining their chances to win the race. Some trainers and jockeys read the racing form and will change their tactics based on the running styles of the favorites in the race. Sometimes they won’t be trying to win the race and will try something new with the horse which affects the pace scenario. And sometimes a horse doesn’t break well or it’s not feeling good that day which completely changes the pace of the race. All this happens often enough that I got frustrated with the whole idea of race shapes and only pay attention to a couple scenarios and it hasn’t hurt my profits one bit.

These are only 2 things that I’ve personally found really helpful (read profitable) in race shapes.

1) Pay attention to the running styles of the favorites in the race. The good jockeys do and that’s one reason why it’s important. I already touched on this in our race examples in regards to looking at the running styles of the top 2 Bris Prime Power horses and favorites.

If the top 2-3 favorites in the race are P and S horses there’s a good chance an E or E/P horse can steal the race at long odds and win. This is especially true in longer sprint races and routes. If one of the favorites is an E/P horse a good E horse has a chance to steal the race but it will be a little more difficult. The jockeys on the favorites will let the longer odds horses go to the front and set an easy pace thinking they have the best horse and will be able catch them. Often times they make their moves too late and the early running long shot has enough energy left in the tank to win the race. The best of all possible scenarios happens when there’s one E or E/P horse in the race that is stretching out in distance and can rate.

2) Here’s my favorite. A great example came up just the other day in a 7 horse field at Tampa Bay Downs on 3/16/08. The race was a claiming race at a mile and 40 yards. There were 3 E horses in the race (4 according to my favorite service for race shapes and some other things-pacefigures.com). One of the E horses was the favorite so that ensured that he wouldn’t get an easy lead because the other jockeys would be paying attention. What you as a handicapper want to pay attention to (if the information is available to you) is the early pace ratings of the early horses (E only) in relation to the pars (average early pace ratings for all races similar to todays) for the race. Do the E horses typically run faster than par for either of the first 2 calls in their recent races or do they run to par and today they’re running at a longer distance race than last?

The Brisnet past performances and some others will give you the race pars in their past performances. Bris had the race pars as 88 for the first call and 91 for the second call.

In this example race the 1 horse was an E horse that had run an 84 and 93 in its last race and 85 and 91 in its second to last. In its last 2 races the horse had run to par or faster at the second call.

The 2 horse was also an E horse. It had run early pace ratings of 88 and 91 in its last race and 86 and 92 in its second to last race. This horse had also run to par or faster in the early part of its last 2 races. The bigger thing was that these races were run in a sprint at 6 furlongs and today’s race was a route race that was more than 2 furlongs longer than his most recent races. This horse was going to ensure that there would be a fast pace today. If the 1 and 2 horse were the only early speed horses in the race it would be enough for me to throw out all the E and horses and the E/P horses with 5 or more Quirin speed points in the race.

The 3 horse in this race was also an early horse. Its second call pace ratings in its last 2 races were 90 and 91 which were close to par. So we have a situation where 3 of the 7 horses in today’s race were E horses, that have all run par or faster and one of them is stretching out in distance; a perfect scenario. The 5 and 7 were the only P and S horses so they stood to benefit the most. The 5 was by far the stronger of the 2 horses left and was the 2nd morning line favorite. The speed ratings on the 7 weren’t as high in recent races but it did have a competitive race a few races back. These types of races are typically won by long shots. That was the case when the 7 won at 30-1 odds. Not a bad price in a 7 horse field. The 5 disappointed finishing 4th while one of the E/P horses with good late pace ratings finished second.

When you find race set ups like this don’t be as concerned with speed ratings as you would in other races. The fast early pace gives slower horses with a plodding or closing running styles a chance to win at higher odds.

Let’s look at two other well know races to give you a better feel for the race shape concepts I’m presenting here. A great example is the 2005 Kentucky Derby which I don’t believe was won by the best horse, but the horse that fell into the perfect scenario. That horse was Giacomo. The 2005 Kentucky Derby was loaded with fast E horses. There were 4 E horses in all according to Brisnet past performances; High Limit, Spanish Chestnut, Bellamy Road (a favorite ensuring the others would pay attention to the E horses) and Going Wild. The Bris early pace pars were 94 and 104 respectively. High Limit had run 104, 122 in its last race and 93, 104 in its 2nd last race. Spanish Chestnut ran a 107, 123 in the same race last as High Limit, a 96, 103 in its second to last and a 101,112 4 races back. Bellamy Road freaked in his race prior to the Derby recording 107,120 early pace ratings and 100,110 in its second to last race. Going Wild ran 115, 121 in its last race and 105,112 in its second to last race. We have 4 E horses that run faster than par early. Further, one of them is the favorite and all of them are stretching out in distance. This race begged for a pace meltdown and there was nothing the jockeys could do about it. You can only rate most E horses so much without ruining their chances of winning the race by restraining them. Identifying this race as a heavy pressure race had me looking at the running styles and late pace ratings of all the horses in the race. I threw out any E/P horses with 6 or more Quirin speed points that didn’t have really strong late pace ratings. This eliminated Bandini, High Fly and Buzzards Bay. I ended up picking Afleet Alex as the most likely winner with a P running style, very strong late pace ratings and great speed ratings. I also liked the race Closing Argument had run 2 races back with a good late pace rating. Closing Argument was an E/P horse with only 4 Quirin speed points meaning he could rate some. I ended up betting both to win and keyed them in horizontal and vertical bets. IF ONLY Closing Argument had held on. I was fortunate that I had included Giacomo in the exotics. He was a plodding horse that I had bet the previous race when he lost. I thought if the race fell apart he could be there at the end because he was improving (see the simplified Stakes Play later in the book) and had a plodding running style (no big moves, just consistent pressing running style). I posted these two horses as the most likely longshots on the paceadvantage.com forum before the race was run. Just do a search for username Niko and 2005 Kentucky Derby longshots.

Contrast that to the 2002 Kentucky Derby. The E horses were Wild Horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen. This is known by most major handicapping publishers as an EEE race shape (3 E horses) and is known as a heavy pressure race because of the 3 early speed horses. In traditional theory the race should be won by a horse that’s labeled as a P or S runner. BUT, let’s look at the early pace ratings of the E horses compared to par. Wild Horses last race (the most important) is 81, 89 which is well below par. War Emblem had a 95,105 last race and 107,115 2 races back which is above par. Proud Citizen ran an 89,101 last race which is below par. The ML odds on the E horses are 50-1, 20-1 and 30-1 which means the jockeys on the favorites won’t be paying too much attention to them. War Emblem had a 107 late pace rating last race compared to a par of 100. This is not only a fast early horse but a horse with a good closing kick too. What happened? The jockeys of the strong E/P horses like Medaglia D’Oro and Buddha didn’t pay attention to War Emblem and Proud Citizen on the front end because of the race shape and the horses odds. War Emblem was able to set fairly slow fractions for a Kentucky Derby and won easily (I don’t believe he would have won without having good late pace ratings also) with Proud Citizen following him around the track finishing second. I did NOT have the winner because at that time I had learned to follow the standard race shapes and didn’t give War Emblem a chance to win. Now I know better. I had used a very popular software program that identified heavy pressure races in which a closing horse was supposed to win. I didn’t have much luck with it, but it did help lead to this important discovery while I was trying to figure out why I was struggling with heavy pressure races.

These two examples show why I only pay attention to E horses and pars when gauging if a horse is a heavy pressure race (coined by the Sartin group, M. Pizzolla or Randy Guiles I believe) with or just a race with some E horses. I don’t pay as much attention to the E/P horses even if they have a lot of Qurin speed points because they are multi-dimensional and can do different things. They’re hard to predict and can adapt to various pace scenarios which make them the best bets in racing if they have decent late pace ratings.

It works just as well when there are only 2 E horses and one of them is faster than par early in the race. Remember that if one of them is a near favorite or stretching out in distance it makes the play even stronger. The ONE time that this doesn’t apply is when a track has been sealed and is listed as sloppy. If the track is favoring early speed horses on rainy days with a sealed track, these fast early horses can take advantage of the early bias and track conditions and win off by many lengths regardless of the other early speed in the race.

These situations don’t work all the time but they work often enough to produce some nice scores and keep you ahead of the game.

[Imriledup]

Great writeup Niko.

I'm a big 'raceshape' handicapper. I stay away from any race longer than a mile and an eighth, just because predicting the pace is really hard and i don't want to bother with it. The shorter race to me, the better because jocks in 5F or 5.5F races will be riding all out all the way, and each horses running style will usually be consistent to whats on paper and that will let me 'set up' how the race is going to run in my mind.

If there is TOO much speed in the race, it seems like there is never a 4 or 5 pronged duel as everyone is too smart for their own good and half the guys 'take back' and mess up your bet on the stoudt closer you have all your money on.

I think that the Ky Derby is the most fascinating race to handicap and it seems to me that whatever happens one year, is what is fresh in the mind of the owners, trainers and jocks the following year. If there's a big pace meltdown one year, i think that this being fresh in everyone's mind, there's lots of instructions to 'not get burned up in the duel'. If a winner gets loose like War Emblem, there might be instructions to jocks to 'dont let the leader get away'.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by Niko

A great example is the 2005 Kentucky Derby which I don’t believe was won by the best horse, but the horse that fell into the perfect scenario. That horse was Giacomo. The 2005 Kentucky Derby was loaded with fast E horses. There were 4 E horses in all according to Brisnet past performances; High Limit, Spanish Chestnut, Bellamy Road (a favorite ensuring the others would pay attention to the E horses) and Going Wild. The Bris early pace pars were 94 and 104 respectively. High Limit had run 104, 122 in its last race and 93, 104 in its 2nd last race. Spanish Chestnut ran a 107, 123 in the same race last as High Limit, a 96, 103 in its second to last and a 101,112 4 races back. Bellamy Road freaked in his race prior to the Derby recording 107,120 early pace ratings and 100,110 in its second to last race. Going Wild ran 115, 121 in its last race and 105,112 in its second to last race. We have 4 E horses that run faster than par early. Further, one of them is the favorite and all of them are stretching out in distance. This race begged for a pace meltdown and there was nothing the jockeys could do about it. You can only rate most E horses so much without ruining their chances of winning the race by restraining them. Identifying this race as a heavy pressure race had me looking at the running styles and late pace ratings of all the horses in the race. I threw out any E/P horses with 6 or more Quirin speed points that didn’t have really strong late pace ratings. This eliminated Bandini, High Fly and Buzzards Bay. I ended up picking Afleet Alex as the most likely winner with a P running style, very strong late pace ratings and great speed ratings. I also liked the race Closing Argument had run 2 races back with a good late pace rating. Closing Argument was an E/P horse with only 4 Quirin speed points meaning he could rate some. I ended up betting both to win and keyed them in horizontal and vertical bets. IF ONLY Closing Argument had held on. I was fortunate that I had included Giacomo in the exotics. He was a plodding horse that I had bet the previous race when he lost. I thought if the race fell apart he could be there at the end because he was improving (see the simplified Stakes Play later in the book) and had a plodding running style (no big moves, just consistent pressing running style). I posted these two horses as the most likely longshots on the paceadvantage.com forum before the race was run. Just do a search for username Niko and 2005 Kentucky Derby longshots.

Niko: I agree with you that running style and pace analysis is a very important part of the process but I don't think the 2005 Derby and a multitude of races are that clear cut.

"I threw out any E/P horses with 6 or more Quirin speed points that didn’t have really strong late pace ratings. This eliminated Bandini, High Fly and Buzzards Bay."

I have no quibble with your 3 eliminations but what about Flower Alley, an EP6, who had a LP rating of 105 (par was 100) and finished 2nd to Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby? What about Andromeda's Hero (same m/l as Giacomo), a P1 with an LP of 107, and finished 3rd to Afleet Alex? I assume you had class concerns since neither had been in a G1 before? Maybe too many speed points on Flower?

What to do with Greeley's Galaxy, an EP7 with an LP of 107 who had romped in the Illinois Derby? Again, class concerns or too many speed points?

If you included Giacomo , wouldn't you have to include Wilko, who finished just ahead of him in the Buzzards Bay race with a comparable LP?

I too bet Closing Argument and was disappointed but I don't think the case for Giacomo vs. some of the others is as clear cut before the race as after.

Just my thoughts.

[Niko]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

Niko: I agree with you that running style and pace analysis is a very important part of the process but I don't think the 2005 Derby and a multitude of races are that clear cut.

"I threw out any E/P horses with 6 or more Quirin speed points that didn’t have really strong late pace ratings. This eliminated Bandini, High Fly and Buzzards Bay."

I have no quibble with your 3 eliminations but what about Flower Alley, an EP6, who had a LP rating of 105 (par was 100) and finished 2nd to Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby? What about Andromeda's Hero (same m/l as Giacomo), a P1 with an LP of 107, and finished 3rd to Afleet Alex? I assume you had class concerns since neither had been in a G1 before? Maybe too many speed points on Flower?

What to do with Greeley's Galaxy, an EP7 with an LP of 107 who had romped in the Illinois Derby? Again, class concerns or too many speed points?

If you included Giacomo , wouldn't you have to include Wilko, who finished just ahead of him in the Buzzards Bay race with a comparable LP?

I too bet Closing Argument and was disappointed but I don't think the case for Giacomo vs. some of the others is as clear cut before the race as after.

Just my thoughts.

Great Questions. I'll start by saying race shape is only one part of the puzzle.

Giacomo certainly wasn't clear cut before the race for me. He was an improving plodder who I thought could get in the money given the pace scenario and his supporting speed figs after eliminating the early speed horses(not just top). I honestly didn't think he would win or I would have bet that way. I think I said after I posted my longshots but won't take the time to look it up. I would have won a lot more if he came in second or third. I included him on top in the exotics in case he got up with the likely pace scenario-the odds made it worthwhile. Afleet Alex was a much better horse which is why I bet him to win also, but these pace scenarios can throw things out of whack for the top contenders.

I don't have the pace figs in front of me but I have and old DRF form on my work computer;

Flower Alley; I don't like horses with less than one start the prior year for the Derby if they don't have stand out figs (Fusaichi Pegaus in 2001 is a good example)-and more than just one for the race, not enough maturity for such a tough race. Other than that looked good.
Greeley's Galaxy; same thing with only one big race last out. 7 seed points and not as fast early as others. I believe his early ratings were a little slow-I'd have to look at home.
Andromeda's Hero; Too slow. Giacomo had 2 better speed ratings and a 3rd about the same.
Wilko: I don't remember why, actually looks pretty good. May have been an odds thing. I probably should have included him. With 20 horses it's hard to get itall right. I wouldn't have at Don't Get Mad if he finished 3rd either.

Gotta fly--Does that help?

[samyn on the green]

Right now my favorite shape is oval, since New York is on the inner, but they do run a ton of U shaped races too. Saturday I will bet on the triangle shaped Dubai World Cup and also a rectangle shaped race too. It is a great week for different race shapes.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by Niko

Great Questions. I'll start by saying race shape is only one part of the puzzle.

Giacomo certainly wasn't clear cut before the race for me. He was an improving plodder who I thought could get in the money given the pace scenario and his supporting speed figs after eliminating the early speed horses(not just top). I honestly didn't think he would win or I would have bet that way. I think I said after I posted my longshots but won't take the time to look it up. I would have won a lot more if he came in second or third. I included him on top in the exotics in case he got up with the likely pace scenario-the odds made it worthwhile. Afleet Alex was a much better horse which is why I bet him to win also, but these pace scenarios can throw things out of whack for the top contenders.

I don't have the pace figs in front of me but I have and old DRF form on my work computer;

Flower Alley; I don't like horses with less than one start the prior year for the Derby if they don't have stand out figs (Fusaichi Pegaus in 2001 is a good example)-and more than just one for the race, not enough maturity for such a tough race. Other than that looked good.
Greeley's Galaxy; same thing with only one big race last out. 7 seed points and not as fast early as others. I believe his early ratings were a little slow-I'd have to look at home.
Andromeda's Hero; Too slow. Giacomo had 2 better speed ratings and a 3rd about the same.
Wilko: I don't remember why, actually looks pretty good. May have been an odds thing. I probably should have included him. With 20 horses it's hard to get itall right. I wouldn't have at Don't Get Mad if he finished 3rd either.

Gotta fly--Does that help?

Can't find a major argument with your logic.

Greeeley's did have subpar early pace figs from his HAW race and his only somewhat competitive early figs were from his MDN 6f breaker.

Andromeda's best BRIS sr was a 95 from TP in the mud in a G2 where he sort of plodded along. Giacomo had a 100,96,98,96 in his last 4, 2 in G1's, and only the 1st 96 on an off track.

I think Wilko was probably bettable except there hasn't been a BC Juvenile winner that has won the Derby, has there? I can't remember.

Don't Get mad was not in the picture for me. His only viable LP ratings were at a one turn mile and at 7f on an off track.

[toetoe]

Wonderful thread, niko.