Bear with me as I continue to try to drag myself into form. Forced a grind through the first half of the card despite struggling to feel good about a race or a particular horse. Hope to get the second half since there is no better therapy for a bad run than doing it for entertainment.
R1: Non-three $35,000 claimers going three-quarters on turf, and the sort of race that tests my resolve at getting through more than one race. That isn’t to say it isn’t a betting race. It may well be with a 2-1 morning line favorite that hasn’t won in over a year, with ten only mildly compelling efforts since.
My problem is that there’s nothing I can sink my claws into and feel good about it. At this point, ordinarily, I’d probably register this fact and move to race two and start thinking about multi-race wagers with a spread early. But, for the sake of trying to make myself grind through this, my overriding impression is that it looks like there are quite a few that want to contest the pace and stagger home. For this reason, among those I focused on, I guess I’ll give the nod to
Lone Trader. Uncoupled with speedy Canarsie Kid, I don’t think that they are in the habit of wasting a lot of races with this five-year-old that is making just his twentieth start. I can't possibly really play this horse at less than the 7-2 M/L, but in a race full of pretty cheap horses that want to lay down, I get a bit of a sense that this guy is just a little better racehorse than some of his rivals, but just isn’t going to bottom out trying to overcome adversity. When it does go his way, he’ll make them run.
R2: Fairly interesting group of three and up maiden $40k claimers go six furlongs and the duo of Refinance and Tanzanite look like they should dominate the wagering. The former is Clement colt that has been off a year after a couple of good seconds in KY maiden allowances for previous trainer Ben Colebrook. The latter comes from Asmussen via Fairgrounds and Oaklawn. Both look good, but neither is without its knocks, making either a tough play at likely short price.
High Frequency ships from Santa Anita off a poor debut there against maiden allowance runners and shows up here for red-hot Jason Servis. One race against better for a top barn dropping is enough to draw some attention and money, but there’s just nothing other than that to latch on to. For that reason and nearly by process of elimination, I’m left thinking that the play is possibly
Shoot The Gap. One start against maiden $50k claimers at Gulfstream and ran alright to be fourth despite the rider losing the whip. The runner-up came back to win, this gelding seems to have never missed a beat with sleepy half-mile works since the race, and I’m shopping for something that can improve and be a little overlooked on the tote.
R3: Good collection of hard-knockers show up for an open $12,500 at a flat mile and the scratch of Russian Greek may have changed the outlook for the flow a bit, but I’m not sure that it doesn’t end up being an actual help to my pick
Erik the Red. Russian Greek looked like committed speed, which likely meant that half of the rest of the field was going to just loiter around a length or so behind. With him out, I’m not so sure that more of a true pace battle doesn’t develop among those stalkers that attempt to capitalize on the scratch.
Whatever way it works out, a lot of those rock-solid stalker types also appear to me to benefit some from two-turn racing on their form – able to get that good position into the first turn without going all-in to get there and grinding from close range sort of trips – that I’m not entirely convinced that I can trust that they will be as effective with the long run down the backside into the only turn. On the flip side, I like Erik the Red from the outside in a one turn race.
R4: I wish that I loved one of these 2X/opt. $62.5 routers and could just set the right odds as to be playable, but these are all contenders in here. 10-1 longshot Testosterstone in the field of five just got done beating half the field in the Mr. Sinatra. Really just one of those races that steers me into pick fours and fives, because everyone is live here. Ultimately, for the sake of making a pick, I probably lean into 9-5 M/L favorite Hard Study in the hope that he’s really more like 5-2 when betting closes.
R5: 
Shiraz just ran in this race on April 29th and rallied to get beaten a half-length. He broke his maiden here at six furlongs on turf. Basically, not only is he a pretty legit contender just on form in general, he is specifically effective at this track, on this surface, going this distance. This really solidifies any suspicion that I had as to whether or not I’d wind up wanting to play a pick four or five. I can’t figure a way to get rich playing Shiraz at a bad price – other than hoping to catch a number in a scramble in a pick ticket sequence.
How?
R1: .50c pick 5: 2,3,4,5,6 // 5,6,7,8 // 7 // 1,2,3,4,5 // 6 = $50
R3: $10 pick 3: 7 // 1,2,3,4,5 // 6 = $50
los borrachos (S 0) ( )
control group (E 7) ( )
hard hitter MTO (E 8) ( )
DAB IN THE LAST ....
Voodoo Song (NY) 8-1 J L Ortiz - M E Hushion
Surtap? The ONLY reason this horse is 5-1 on the ML is his trainer...I have no idea what to do with this horse...no turf starts...should be 20-1 based on his dirt numbers and turf breeding, but is a total wild card first time out with trainer Brad Cox, who seems to be able to do no wrong.
Busted (defensively, of course) and 
Robbins. Both have run okay against better and been making the steady decline to this level while getting a little better. Robbins is a well-known inner maiden that probably needs for everyone to peel off in front of him to actually win a race. Bigboldbok has only run on turf in the three starts, pressing in both sprints and routes in his last couple. Seems like a little easier spot here and might be sitting on a top race in second off the break, dropping, and turning back from a flat mile.
