Commonality in Derby winners.

[Suff]

I picked this up over on

www.equidaily.com

http://www.saratogian.com/site/news....d=349537&rfi=6

Most people rely on precedent in trying to predict the Derby winner. Individuals draw on a wide range of material -- everything from a horse's birth sign to a serious examination of his race record. With that in mind, here are five characteristics the last five winners of the Kentucky Derby -- Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus -- have in common.

1. All five are male-line descendants of Raise a Native. Four descend through Mr. Prospector, one through Majestic Prince.

2. The sires of all five were primarily sprinters whose winning races came mainly at six and seven furlongs. Only two of these sires won a race at a distance greater than a mile, and none won as long as nine furlongs.

3. All five Derby winners were produced by young broodmares with modest racing records. All mares were between 7-11 years old. All five won at least one race, but only one was a (minor) stakes-winner.

4. All five Derby winners were lightly raced at two. None made more than three starts, and none made his first start until after Labor Day. Thus, none of the five ran at Saratoga Race Course.

5. None of the last five Kentucky Derby winners ran in a graded-stakes race as a 2-year-old, and none won a graded race until March of his 3-year-old year. Only one won a Grade I race prior to the Derby.

Conclusion. Of course, there's no guarantee this profile will hold true for a sixth straight year. But if it did, it would mean Declan's Moon, Afleet Alex, Rockport Harbor, Wilko and Galloping Grocer have no shot at winning this year's Derby. Neither do Proud Accolade, Sun King or Roman Ruler. All raced too much (or too early) as 2-year-olds, and all have already competed in a graded-stakes race.

[hurrikane]

I wonder if this isn't a good validation of the 3yo colony being week the last few years

[OTM Al]

Just a look at these points one by one

1. This is kind of a throwout. A vast majority of horses have these bloodlines. If we believe that speed comes through the male line, then these would be horses heavy on passing through speed. Female line is supposed to be the one that gives stamina, so I think that is more important...see further comments below

2. This is kind of a repeat of #1 so not much more to say

3. This has the look of a major point for those into pedigree handicapping. If, as noted above, stamina is given by the female line, then what we have here is the best breeding years for the mare. Makes sense to me.

4. This is also an important point. I think the the rushout of 2yos these days, those that run a lot and have success early are simply more mature at their age than their fellows. Once the others catch up, they usually go right on by. This would not be to say that I would ignore a 2yo that put up consistant and massive speed figs, but I'm still waiting to see one of those...

5. Given the timing of most of these graded stakes I do not find this surprising. So many weighted toward mid and late summer and not early winter when the maturity is really coming on. I disagree with counting out the horses you listed as, except for Alex, they have only run about 4 times each. That isn't bad I don't think and I'm not sure I want to hold Alex's 6 against him either just yet. Roman Ruler and Proud Accolade are starting to look a lot like early maturers to me though.

To counter/add to your list, I'm going to repost a list of 14 points someone here put up last year. I took it and mixed in some dosage and had the super for the Derby taking only 6 horses. Unfortunately my dumb a** didn't follow through and bet it, but to be sure I will this year.

) A win at age two

2) 3 - 4 races since January 1st

3) At least one 1 1/8 mile prep

4) Finished at least 3rd in their final prep

5) Must be an early nominee

6) can't be gelded

7) At least 5 life time starts

8) Last race must be greater than 8 furlongs

9) Must have at least 16 points in its DP

10) Can have no more than two 0's in it's DP

11) At least one graded stakes win

12) At least one triple digit speed figure

13) last prep must be in April

14) Can't have Raise A Native in the broodmare sireline.

Bonus angle:

Final quarter mile of 9 furlong prep must be run in less than 26 seconds. 24 out of the last 26 winners had this angle, incuding Funny Cide.

Note #14 of these and #1 of yours. Speed is fine on daddy's side, but you don't want it on the dam side

[DerbyTrail]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Just a look at these points one by one

1. This is kind of a throwout. A vast majority of horses have these bloodlines. If we believe that speed comes through the male line, then these would be horses heavy on passing through speed. Female line is supposed to be the one that gives stamina, so I think that is more important...see further comments below

2. This is kind of a repeat of #1 so not much more to say

OTM..

I don't think the R-A-N issue is a throwout. It's a key point. Not only are the last 5 Derby winners from RAN line sires, but 8 of the last 10 are RAN, and 12 of the last 15. That's overwhelming.

It's not a stand alone issue obviously, as damside stamina has to accompany the RAN sire, but all of those winners indeed have that plus..

When I'm ranking Derby prospects early in the year, the RAN colts are always at the top of my list.

[OTM Al]

Didn't mean it as a throwout as in ignore it. No, as you say and I comment as well, these are speed horses and on the sire side that's a good thing. What I mean't by throwout is two things. A) Way too many horses have these bloodlines so it really doesn't cut the field down too much, and B) Other sires known to pass good speed work here as well. ie don't give negative points if they have a different high quality speed sire.

[chickenhead]

from an older ATM article:

Runners that had achieved a final-quarter-mile time of 25.1 seconds or less in a Big Six prep race and were also members of the Raise A Native sire line have won 8 of the 18 Derbies between 1978 and 2003 in which there was at least one qualifier. The percent of winners with this factor is 44.4 while the percent of starters is only 10.9, which produces a very strong impact value of 4.07. This means that these horses are winning the Derby 307 percent more often than chance alone would dictate.


(don't recall SJ AK Derby times, but he most likely qualified under these rules as well, making it 9 of 19)

[OTM Al]

Went through the checklist above for the 23 horses listed individually in pool 1. Only 2 have 9 points, which is the max they can have at this point, Going Wild and (assuming that point 6 would not also include females) Sweet Catomine. Low point scores of 5 to Sun King, Texess and High Limit. Giacomo, Proud Accolade (definite 1 turn horse), Roman Ruler, Storm Surge, and Wilko all have DI's over 4, while Closing Argument, Galloping Grocer and Greater Good are right at that majic level of 4.

[Bruddah]

Ok folks, I will share my research of the last 8 years...that's how long I have been telling individuals that the RAN sire line, on the sire side, was a prescription for a Kentucky Derby winner. I have had the Ky Derby winner for the last five years in a row and have been paid handsomly. Some of you numbers guys should have a field day with impact values. I hope you will share, as well.

This information does not mean other sires produce lesser quality colts. It does mean RAN sires are producing colts which are maturing early in the spring of their 3 year old years.

Years 1987-2004
RAN Ky Derby starters 79 (11-6-3-3-7) finishes thru 5th plc
No. Dancer starters 69 (2-4-4-4-2)
Nasrullah 56 (1-2-6-2-2)
Turn-To 43 (1-5-3-5-4)
Ribot 11 (1-1-1-0-0)
Buckpasser 4 (2-0-0-0-0-)
Various other sire lines 42 (0-0-1-3-3)

A total of 304 starters over 17 yrs (avg 17.88 starters)

Sons/ grandsons of these sires with the most starters and winners.

RAN- Mr Prospector 68 (8-5-3-3-7) Fappiano 20 (3-2-0-1-3)
No. Dancer- StormBird 13 (1-3-1-1-0) Storm Cat 8 (0-2-1-0-0)
Nasrullah- Bold Ruler 37 (1-2-6-2-2) Seattle Slew (19 (0-1-1-2-1)
Turn-To- Hail To Reason 34 (1-3-2-4-4) Halo 14 (1-2-0-2-0)
Ribot- His Majesty 7 (1-1-1-0-0) ----
Buckpasser- Silver Buck 2 (1-0-0-0-0) ----
various others- Damascus 13 (0-0-0-0-2) ----

Finally, starters with RAN on the dam's sire line
52 (0-3-2-4-1)


I began breaking this information dow 8 years ago and researched back to 1987. Which was looking back for 10 years, at the time. I started keeping records in MS Works and continue to do so today for convenience. If any of you would like further breakdowns, send me an email at Hottalkers@aristotle.net. You will need MS Works to read the file. Also, if any of you have Ky Derby/TC information you would share with me, I would appreciate it.

[Valuist]

I use pretty simple qualifications:

1. Horse must've been the best in its last prep, even if it didnt win. Obviously subjective but this angle snagged final prep also rans Thunder Gulch, Unbridled, Silver Charm and Real Quiet. It also snagged winners like Smarty Jones, War Emblem, FuPegasus, Charismatic and Sunday Silence to name a few.

2. The horse must have had a strong race at 1 1/8 miles, no exceptions. Again, the criteria is the horse must have been the best in that race, taking pace into account with the finish.

3. Must have earned a Beyer minimum of at least 105 at 1 1/8 miles. 1 1/16 miles does not count; no exceptions.

Simple but its been profitable. W-2 hits in 1990, 1998 and 2001 as well as a near signer exacta in 1995.

[The Judge]

Has any if these methods stood -up at least reasonably well since 2005

[BlueChip@DRF]

I think the new points system has changed a lot of those rules. And from that point on, the single commonality of those winners was coming into the Derby as an undefeated 3YO.

[clicknow]

"Thus, none of the five ran at Saratoga Race Course."


That is interesting. I've always looked over the PPs and tossed (for the win) the horses that raced at Saratoga at 2. Just tracking them over the years the 2 year olds that race there don't seem win the Derby, but I"ve never seen it "statistically said" until you posted the equidaily article.

The undefeated coming into the Derby, IMHO, has to include further due dilligence that includes counting the number of horses they have beat in their career. A horse who has raced against 65 other horses and has a good ITM % has to be considered against an undefeated who has only raced under 20 other horses and in small fields. I'm sure that in cases as with Justify, sheeer talent or brilliance "may" substitute for this experience, but I'm not one who takes that on faith.