Weak Crop

[PowerUpPaynter]

At this point is it safe to say 2019 was a weak crop?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

At this point is it safe to say 2019 was a weak crop?

Weak or suffered severe wastage of talent.

Bob Baffert won with 20-odd first time starters (to much fanfare) last year but only a handful of those ever made another start. Hopefully some of those will make successful returns.

Maximus Mischief and Instagrand were considered immense talents by some but were injured relatively quickly.

[Dream_Police]

Just read in the Louisville Courier Journal that Country House will not run until 2020. I think we have seen the last of him. Mott states that there is not enough time to get him ready for the Travers or the BC, The BC is 4 months away, so there must be more to the story.

[Dream_Police]

https://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-de...est-year?type=

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Weak or suffered severe wastage of talent.

Bob Baffert won with 20-odd first time starters (to much fanfare) last year but only a handful of those ever made another start. Hopefully some of those will make successful returns.

Maximus Mischief and Instagrand were considered immense talents by some but were injured relatively quickly.

Don’t forget Hidden Scroll.

[Immortal6]

How can anyone judge how weak this crop really is when we are only half way through the 3 yo season? Game Winner has yet to run back and could prove to be an immense talent at 9F and under. Tacitus has looked pretty damn good imo and if he continues to race should win multiple graded races at classic distances. Mr. Money has blossomed and destroyed two good fields in back to back races. Hog Creek Hustle has the looks of a damn good one turn sprinter.


Just because some of the hype horses from early in the season have recently disappointed doesn’t mean this is a weak crop. Lots of these horses have yet to reach peak physical maturity.

In addition, I think some parity is a good thing for this sport, and all other sports for that matter.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

Just read in the Louisville Courier Journal that Country House will not run until 2020.

He didn't look well to me days directly after the Derby, so I was not surprised when Mott said he was not well.

I suspect he wasn't that well when he ran, so it gave me more respect for these horses, who give their all, even when they are not feeling well, to run for us in these tough races.

For others, I guess getting sick is a reason for derision.

I know a lot of human athletes who are personal friends who are triathalon athletes and marathon runners, who often have to take a season off, because they can't always control health crisis that arise. Some of them also have to compete when they are not at optimum health. Tough life, athletes.

Thankfully, we no longer live in the days of the gladiators, and I am certainly not one for pushing animals or humans past the point, just want to see them give their best, and that is enough for me.

Every year however, there is the finger pointing about "weak crop". This has been going on for at least a decade. If that is true, then perhaps it's time to look at our breeding programs, and all the meds and drugs, because if indeed we keep producing *weak crops* year after year, perhaps we need to look more closely at the situation.

I don't believe that is entirely true, but for those of you who always cry weak crop, then time to ask why, huh?

[clicknow]

P.S. the notion that horses are "finished" in their 3rd year and can simply be tossed off as "weak crop" is certainly something to look at.

To me, most horses should be able to compete in year 4 and year 5 at least.....and beyond.

If our racing program doesn't allow for this, then again, maybe time to ask "what is wrong with our breeding/racing model."

Crop implies an entire breeding year, not just a couple of horses. Again, since I hear this every year, whether true or not, those of you who believe it is happening need to come up with a reason for it I would think.

[Robert Fischer]

Annual crop promoter/defender here.


Yea, this has been a rather mediocre defending crop.


forgive me if I forget some horses (although not sure whether to blame my hangover or a lack of impact/name-recognition of the horses themselves)


Game Winner - Could yet be the saving grace of this year's crop. While we waited and waited for Bob's next best thing to eclipse Game Winner, they never did, and he never went away, and then out of nowhere he ran a Grade-1 race in the Kentucky Derby.

Omaha Beach - Should he return to peak form, he's at least arguably a top horse. I felt he was overrated, but I wasn't going to toss him in tickets.

Maximum Security - Dream trip in the Florida Derby, All 'smart' betting models proclaimed him a massive underlay in the Kentucky Derby, but he won the Derby in a tussle while able to control the pace in an odd fashion; -He first broke to the lead in an honest pace before ratcheting it down. Really nice talent to have. The longer, the better if he ever hopes to try to pull it off again.

Tacitus - War horse who checks all the boxes, except for tactical speed. Hard to consider him the type to win Grade 1 races 'outright'. He has popular breeding, and I'm no expert on breeding rights and such, but it would be fun to see him race a few more seasons.

Improbable - One of the great white(haired) hopes, alluded to with mention of Game Winner, he was once referred to as "Justify Lite". After firing two consecutive 'duds' he is more like dollar-store off-brand Mountain Dew.

Mucho Gusto - Cool horse, G3 or so, inexplicably hit a wall in the Sunland Derby. Most likely indicator of future issues and class issues, but some potential.

Code of Honor - Really cool, and stylish in spite of being a couple hundred pounds or so light in the ass.

War of Will - G3 or so, but hats off to this horse as well as Mark Casse and Gary Barber. What a cool horse and he really went for it in a bunch of stakes.


OK... Fresh off fixing a jammed moon-roof for 2 hours and headache back in full force... that's all I feel like rattling off for now

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

How can anyone judge how weak this crop really is when we are only half way through the 3 yo season? Game Winner has yet to run back and could prove to be an immense talent at 9F and under. Tacitus has looked pretty damn good imo and if he continues to race should win multiple graded races at classic distances. Mr. Money has blossomed and destroyed two good fields in back to back races. Hog Creek Hustle has the looks of a damn good one turn sprinter.


Just because some of the hype horses from early in the season have recently disappointed doesn’t mean this is a weak crop. Lots of these horses have yet to reach peak physical maturity.

In addition, I think some parity is a good thing for this sport, and all other sports for that matter.

When we talk the 3yo crop this time of year, we are talking about so far.
No matter what any of them do later on, as far as TC goes, it is a wek crop.
You can compare crop to crop at this fixed point in time. Like HOY, it is for a certain time frame.

[ReplayRandall]

As I've stated in other threads, "The first 6 months of this year has been one of the worst for horse racing I've seen in decades, on numerous fronts."

[bobphilo]

It's hard to judge the strength of a crop when only half the year is over so we can only speak to this point in time. Many people consider it a strong crop when 2 or 3 horses dominate the others. When the talent is more evenly distributed and different horses win the classics based on different trips they call it a weak crop.
It also seems that we hear it proclaimed a weak crop more often than not which makes as much sense as saying that most people are less intelligent than average and just as contradictory.
Since different crops cannot meet head to head as 3YOs, all we can do is compare average speed figures for the different crops, as their greatest value is to compare horses who have never met.
It seems to me that roughly the average speed figures for this crops is about average compared to previous years. I know he has found this years TC races were about a point or 2 slower than average (which is not a big difference) and has much more data than me on other races so he can confirm if this is the case or whether they are weaker or stronger overall. What say you, CJ?

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It's hard to judge the strength of a crop when only half the year is over so we can only speak to this point in time. Many people consider it a strong crop when 2 or 3 horses dominate the others. When the talent is more evenly distributed and different horses win the classics based on different trips they call it a weak crop.
It also seems that we hear it proclaimed a weak crop more often than not which makes as much sense as saying that most people are less intelligent than average and just as contradictory.
Since different crops cannot meet head to head as 3YOs, all we can do is compare average speed figures for the different crops, as their greatest value is to compare horses who have never met.
It seems to me that roughly the average speed figures for this crops is about average compared to previous years. I know he has found this years TC races were about a point or 2 slower than average (which is not a big difference) and has much more data than me on other races so he can confirm if this is the case or whether they are weaker or stronger overall. What say you, CJ?

Figure wise this was a below average crop so far through the preps and the Triple Crown season. Mr. Money just ran a 124 in the Matt Winn which is the best two turn race for a 3yo this year.

The two most exciting prospects have been fillies in Covfefe (127) and Guarana (126). The former is almost assuredly a sprinter, the latter won the Acorn in a romp and has the breeding to go further IMO.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Figure wise this was a below average crop so far through the preps and the Triple Crown season. Mr. Money just ran a 124 in the Matt Winn which is the best two turn race for a 3yo this year.

The two most exciting prospects have been fillies in Covfefe (127) and Guarana (126). The former is almost assuredly a sprinter, the latter won the Acorn in a romp and has the breeding to go further IMO.

Thanks CJ. As the 3 TC races were only a point or 2 below average I'm guessing it was the preps that brought down this crops average. Interesting in seeing what the rest of the season shows.

[Afleet]

after Game Winner wins the Travers and Breeders Cup Classic-it will be a strong crop