R11 G1 Belmont Stakes 6/9/19

[Lemon Drop Husker]

We are coming to the end of a Triple Crown season for the ages. While it may not be one of the better groups of 3YOs we've seen, they have definitely given us thrills and chills all along the way.

Now for the Test of Champions going 12 panels.

Joevia: Not surprising to anybody, but this guy needs the lead, and will likely get it. Question is, how fast, and if he can walk the dog Da'Tara style. Not likely, but at least an interesting entry that does add some flavor to the race.

Everfast: I don't know anybody that had this guy hitting the Exacta in the Preakness, but he certainly ran his race with a new top number. Was it his coming out party, or an aberration mired in a late rail bias? Either way, he can't be summarily dismissed with a pedigree that screams he can get the 12 panel distance. Could he be even bigger odds in 10 horse Belmont after a Place finish in a 13 horse Preakness?

Master Fencer: The Japan shipper certainly didn't disappoint with his solid run in the Derby with a strong finish. Connections held off and entered him here in a race that suits his training style even more. Distance shouldn't be a problem. The real question is whether he can be close enough to make a difference late.

Tax: He had a really rough race in the Derby, so his backers can easily cross that one off the board. He should be forwardly placed in here, but his endurance is certainly in question. He is a net +1 in passing horses after the 2nd call in his 6 career races which means he almost assuredly needs to be on the lead to beat these.

Bourbon War: I really liked this guy in the Fountain of Youth. While he got the perfect setup he still couldn't get it done. His Preakness was a massive let down, and he seems to be regressing when others are getting better. Yes, he is a Tapit, but I gotta pass here yet again.

Spinoff: Yes, I liked this guy in the Derby and he was never a factor while wide throughout. He gets a reprieve from me here as I see him sitting a comfortable 2nd/3rd in the pocket and ready to be really interesting in the stretch. He has a legit shot in here.

Sir Winston: Last I checked, he beat the 'wise guy' horse in the Intrepid Heart last out while trailing him throughout till the racing really mattered. His Tampa Bay Derby wasn't too shabby either. Maybe not a win contender, but a must consideration on any and all exotics for me.

Intrepid Heart: The Wise Guy horse. Breeding out the nostrils and this guy was born for this very race. You just have to wonder if 3 races is enough foundation for a 3YO to run 12 panels even with his breeding.

War of Will: We all know about the Derby controversy, and he certainly got a great trip in the Preakness. He was a massive contender in both when all is said and done and he is the lone horse standing who will run in all 3 Triple Crown races. I very big hat tip for that simple fact. Now for the real world. Rumors are he has lost weight during this TC run, and is a bit tired. Maybe so. Maybe not. When you make up a ticket, you certainly don't want to get beat by a horse who wins 2 Triple Crown races.

Tacitus: Has never ran a bad race. His Derby was pretty damn good and he is suited as a Tapit to win this very race. His numbers are better than every horse in the field, and he is as more tactical horse than any other. He is the horse to beat.

SUMMARY: I like Spinoff and I'll key him with Tacitus over everybody else.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

We are coming to the end of a Triple Crown season for the ages. While it may not be one of the better groups of 3YOs we've seen, they have definitely given us thrills and chills all along the way.

Now for the Test of Champions going 12 panels.

Joevia: Not surprising to anybody, but this guy needs the lead, and will likely get it. Question is, how fast, and if he can walk the dog Da'Tara style. Not likely, but at least an interesting entry that does add some flavor to the race.

Everfast: I don't know anybody that had this guy hitting the Exacta in the Preakness, but he certainly ran his race with a new top number. Was it his coming out party, or an aberration mired in a late rail bias? Either way, he can't be summarily dismissed with a pedigree that screams he can get the 12 panel distance. Could he be even bigger odds in 10 horse Belmont after a Place finish in a 13 horse Preakness?

Master Fencer: The Japan shipper certainly didn't disappoint with his solid run in the Derby with a strong finish. Connections held off and entered him here in a race that suits his training style even more. Distance shouldn't be a problem. The real question is whether he can be close enough to make a difference late.

Tax: He had a really rough race in the Derby, so his backers can easily cross that one off the board. He should be forwardly placed in here, but his endurance is certainly in question. He is a net +1 in passing horses after the 2nd call in his 6 career races which means he almost assuredly needs to be on the lead to beat these.

Bourbon War: I really liked this guy in the Fountain of Youth. While he got the perfect setup he still couldn't get it done. His Preakness was a massive let down, and he seems to be regressing when others are getting better. Yes, he is a Tapit, but I gotta pass here yet again.

Spinoff: Yes, I liked this guy in the Derby and he was never a factor while wide throughout. He gets a reprieve from me here as I see him sitting a comfortable 2nd/3rd in the pocket and ready to be really interesting in the stretch. He has a legit shot in here.

Sir Winston: Last I checked, he beat the 'wise guy' horse in the Intrepid Heart last out while trailing him throughout till the racing really mattered. His Tampa Bay Derby wasn't too shabby either. Maybe not a win contender, but a must consideration on any and all exotics for me.

Intrepid Heart: The Wise Guy horse. Breeding out the nostrils and this guy was born for this very race. You just have to wonder if 3 races is enough foundation for a 3YO to run 12 panels even with his breeding.

War of Will: We all know about the Derby controversy, and he certainly got a great trip in the Preakness. He was a massive contender in both when all is said and done and he is the lone horse standing who will run in all 3 Triple Crown races. I very big hat tip for that simple fact. Now for the real world. Rumors are he has lost weight during this TC run, and is a bit tired. Maybe so. Maybe not. When you make up a ticket, you certainly don't want to get beat by a horse who wins 2 Triple Crown races.

Tacitus: Has never ran a bad race. His Derby was pretty damn good and he is suited as a Tapit to win this very race. His numbers are better than every horse in the field, and he is as more tactical horse than any other. He is the horse to beat.

SUMMARY: I like Spinoff and I'll key him with Tacitus over everybody else.

Where did you hear WOW lost weight and is tired. Thank you!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by zico20

Where did you hear WOW lost weight and is tired. Thank you!

The great Twitter machine in its horse racing side.

Like I said, I don't know if it is true or not, but just rumors.

I didn't mean to post it as any kind of controversy. I just find things like what I see/hear on Twitter as 'interesting' and food for thought. Nothing more than that.

I post 'wise guy' horse nomenclatures because of things I see on Twitter and read on DRF and other talking heads.

[clicknow]

I'm using Bourbon War. I think he turns a corner here at a better distance for him. Will use 2 keys and others underneath, my 2nd key will be either Sir Winston or Master Fencer. Whoever I don't use goes under. Will know tomorrow. The rest under will be tacitus, WoW, Spinoff.
If I play a superfecta, will use Everfast in 4th.

[clicknow]

Sentiment wise, hope WoW wins if he is capable of doing so.

Tacitus was 4th in the Derby (before the disqual). He's never even won a G1 race, has he? KY Derby was his only G1 race and he ran 4th.

I guess that's okay if he is "peaking" ----

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

The great Twitter machine in its horse racing side.

Like I said, I don't know if it is true or not, but just rumors.

I didn't mean to post it as any kind of controversy. I just find things like what I see/hear on Twitter as 'interesting' and food for thought. Nothing more than that.

I post 'wise guy' horse nomenclatures because of things I see on Twitter and read on DRF and other talking heads.

That's weird. Casse said he gained 60 or so pounds. He sure looked good this week.

[rastajenk]

I was kind of in the mood this week to structure some trifecta combos that included serious bombs...a kind of reverse psychology thing where the first three I might ordinarily toss become the core of the combinations.

But there are no big bombs. After the top two, they all have a little something going for them, and plenty of reasons to finish as also-rans. The longest shot right now, I think, is the at under 20-1. That will make the decision-making considerably more difficult this afternoon.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by clicknow

That's weird. Casse said he gained 60 or so pounds. He sure looked good this week.

I probably follow a bunch of assholes.


So there is that.

[Redboard]

Since the Belmont is such a crazy race with so many illogical winners through the years(there is no Pharoah or Justify in this years field) I throw out my normal methods of handicapping and do this: Toss the closers because by the time they're ready to close, they are too pooped from already running 10 panels . I throw out the early speed because they can’t last that long —wiring the Belmont doesn’t happen.

I look for a horse that will break from the gate , get into his gallop and run the race as if he has a blindfold on — as fast in the beginning as at the end. To find that horse I look at the Timeform Pace figures where the early and late figures are close. This year I see Everfast’s are 93 and 99 for a difference of 6, and also Tax has a 97 and 91, with the same difference. I’ll dutch win these two and select a couple more to use in an exacta box.

[GaryG]

SIR WINSTON

[deathandgravity]

Intrepid Heat - 1 1/2 Miles should be no issue
Tacitus - Tapit again. Good effort in derby
Tax - Toss the derby & picks up Irad

[cutchemist42]

Looking at...

3/1

7/2

4/1

6/1


Just not crazy on Tacitus.

[098poi]

Posted in the other R11 thread


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[AxleLode]

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[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GaryG

SIR WINSTON

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