 |
|
06-07-2019, 08:17 PM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Intrepid Heart underlaid in early wagering
It's way too early to make any concrete judgements, but 6-1 is an awful price on Intrepid Heart.
https://www.belmontstakes.com/racing...akes-live-odds
I love his pedigree for 12F. Obviously he's a Tapit, but he's also a half-brother to 2014 Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner and Mythical Bride. The latter is the dam of Vino Rosso, who finished fourth in this race.
But Intrepid Heart did not run well in the Peter Pan Stakes. Naturally, one would demand value after such a lackluster effort in the stretch. As it stands right now though, he is a lower price than Sir Winston, who ran much better than Intrepid Heart did.
Also, Intrepid Heart is green and still learning this game.
I thought Master Fencer would be the biggest underlay in this race. It might turn out to be Intrepid Heart.
Last edited by letswastemoney; 06-07-2019 at 08:18 PM.
|
|
|
|
06-07-2019, 08:36 PM
|
#2
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
|
Somebody has to be 3rd choice.
After the two good horses, you have Tax, Intrepid, and Bourbon War.
All three are trying to come back after 'duds' and show they can return to peak form.
Intrepid Heart probably has the best chance of doing so.
6-1 seems about 'fair' to me for  Intrepid Heart.
8-1 for  Sir Winston seems to be a massive underlay,
and 11-1 for  Master Fencer seems to be a massive underlay.
 may be a significant overlay @ 5/2, depending on how much tactical speed you feel he has.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
06-07-2019, 09:38 PM
|
#3
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
and 11-1 for Master Fencer seems to be a massive underlay. |
On second thought, maybe I do agree with this. Regardless of Intrepid Heart, 11-1 is still very low on Master Fencer, who I might place around 20-1 or higher as fair.
|
|
|
|
|
06-07-2019, 11:41 PM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
Never pay attention to early betting.
People do lots of things when they don't have a tote board.
|
|
|
|
|
06-07-2019, 11:59 PM
|
#5
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
|
What I think is crazy, is the double will pays to the , Sir Winston. Pays $74.75 with the 6-1 winner in the Gold Cup, and is really low in the other pool.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 03:03 AM
|
#6
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
What I think is crazy, is the double will pays to the , Sir Winston. Pays $74.75 with the 6-1 winner in the Gold Cup, and is really low in the other pool. |
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 11:38 AM
|
#7
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
On second thought, maybe I do agree with this. Regardless of Intrepid Heart, 11-1 is still very low on Master Fencer, who I might place around 20-1 or higher as fair.
|
A knucklehead like myself may say something definitive, but even in the rare case where the long-term process is on the right track, it's really a 'best-guess' in any specific case.
sort of like saying there is no 'right' or 'wrong' answer in a horse race.
Intrepid Heart may seem like the 3rd most likely to me, but he could have health issues or a talent-vacuum that I can't see. Same is true for the reverse, w/ SW or MF ...
you can beat the races, but you can't beat a race.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 06-08-2019 at 11:39 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 12:01 PM
|
#8
|
|
Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Never pay attention to early betting.
People do lots of things when they don't have a tote board.
|
Actually, the odds don't change a whole lot; just some tweaks here and there.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 12:19 PM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
|
Sorry, give me a double with cheese then.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 01:11 PM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
Actually, the odds don't change a whole lot; just some tweaks here and there.
|
There was about a 20 year streak in the Kentucky Derby where the wrong horse was favored in the early betting. Once the public saw the odds they corrected it.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 01:28 PM
|
#11
|
|
Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
|
I knew you'd try to have the last word... 
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 01:36 PM
|
#12
|
|
Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
|
How many $2 souvenir tickets were sold?
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 04:15 PM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
|
holy crap. of you don't like the 9/10 all other win bets are crap/ i'm guessing the exacta's will be underlays as well
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 05:04 PM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
I knew you'd try to have the last word... |
This is basic to good handicapping. Don't psy attention to early betting. Make your own projection of final odds.
|
|
|
|
|
06-08-2019, 07:14 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Intrepid Heart was 3rd choice and 6-1 at the end...right where he was in early wagering.
And he did absolutely nothing. He needs to develop more.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
