Joevia

[Aerocraft67]

Jovia, 30-1

Here we have the longest shot on the board. Double next best Tax at 15-1.

How about those blistering fractions in the Wood Memorial? Are they not the fastest early pace figs in the field? Swung in from the 11th post and took the lead. Caused some consternation doing so. Beat by two of the classy contenders here (among others). Probably no surprise.

Don't want to make too much of the last win in the Long Branch, vs. three in the slop with hottest contender breaking down and the track favoring speed.

Alwaysmining put him away easily in the Private Terms at Laurel. But he got place, in his second race, first of the three-year-old campaign.

Lightly raced. Looks to get the lead, saving ground on the inside. No early threat to its outside. Did I mention 30-1 on the morning line?

No class to speak of other than the burnout in the Wood. No obvious distance pedigree, but that's not my thing.

Any inkling he can stay the distance, and I'm very interested.

[clicknow]

I was pointing out elsewhere that if you look at his works at BEL back in Jan, Feb, and March, they would be considered "sharp workouts" comparable to other horses who BRIS now has that listed for in their comments.

He's very fast, no doubt about that. And has plenty enough stamina on his mare side and should be "good" to about 10-11F. However, he hasn't shown that part yet.

This is the problem with a big 12F race. You just never know because we don't get to see them race at longer distances. This happens all the time, there was a horse named Forever d'Oro who really would have shined at really long distances, but never got the opportunity to do so. Derby would have been way too short for him---- and yes, he did awful in the belmont, but had only run maiden sp. wts. 3x so he had no bottom and had not been trained up right. I think stewart knew his pedigree and figured "why not" but the horse was just never given the proper training to run at that level.

IMHO there are worse horses in the race, esp. in terms of *potential stamina* for a race at this distance....

[clicknow]

In other words he has only run like the shanghai bobby sire side.

[boys at tosconova]

box 14689 in the exacta and pray.........that will cover all the speed and tact speed

[clicknow]

I'm more inclined to favor horses that appear to have the stamina for this distance, but *hated* the slop in the Derby, like Spinoff and Tax, should the track come up dry.

Are we supposed to have a dry fast track for this race?

Does anyone have an inkling of whether the pace will be fast or slow?

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I'm more inclined to favor horses that appear to have the stamina for this distance, but *hated* the slop in the Derby, like Spinoff and Tax, should the track come up dry.

Are we supposed to have a dry fast track for this race?

Does anyone have an inkling of whether the pace will be fast or slow?

I like your inclination. I'll look forward to your further thoughts on Tax.

Weather forecast looks to be dry after Thursday. Dry fast track for Saturday.

Pace looks to be honest.

Should be a good day!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

There is zero speed in this race. I mean. Zero.

Da'Tara won in 2008 with Big Brown going for a guaranteed Triple Crown romp. Got the lead, and never looked back at a near 40/1. Lone speed in the race was basically allowed to run a workout through a mile, and drew away to an improbable 5 1/4 length victory.

While this field looks to be better on paper outside of that 2008 edition and outside of BB, it doesn't look like one of the stronger fields we've seen in the Belmont.

I did bet a little on Joevia across in the Wood with the theory of lone speed. At 52/1 in an 11 horse field he got caught in a pace duel with Not That Brady and faded badly. Not sure the Long Branch on a sloppy track amounts to anything much since that race. He'll be 45/1 or better on Saturday, maybe worth a $5 across for shits and giggles for me. Pedigree certainly doesn't stand out other than War Front as a damsire. But that seems like a stretch with his 2 turn races thus far in trying to get 12 panels much less 8.5.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

He's very fast, no doubt about that. And has plenty enough stamina on his mare side and should be "good" to about 10-11F. However, he hasn't shown that part yet.

The 15 males in the first 4 generations of Joevia's pedigree reads like a who's who of top sprinters and milers.

Harlan, Orientate, Mt. Livermore, Carson City, War Front, Danzig, Mr. Greeley, Gone West, and Rubiano all did their best running around one turn.

Paternal grandsire Harlan's Holiday, despite a race record geared toward middle distances, appears to be a speed influence through Into Mischief. His other two sons given a chance at stud, sprinter Majestic Perfection and juvenile flash Shanghai Bobby, have been exported after only a few crops each.

In addition, Harlan's Holiday is a Storm Cat-line stallion. Storm Cat did sire Belmont winner Tabasco Cat but did not figure in the sire line of any subsequent winner until last year with Justify. Storm Cat also didn't feature in the female family of any Belmont winner until American Pharoah.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

There is zero speed in this race. I mean. Zero.

Spinoff appears to have good early speed if he can muster a modicum of luck in the first part of the race.

In his first two starts of the year he was bumped at the break. In his last two starts, he's been parked wide going into the first turn while in contact with the first flight.

As a 2yo, he dueled with the good sprinter Call Paul in the 6f Saratoga Special.

Spinoff is by Hard Spun, who set the pace in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and prompted the pace in the other 2 legs of the Triple Crown that year. His dam, Zaftig, excelled around one turn at Belmont Park. Her sire, Gone West, set the pace in the 1987 Belmont Stakes against the likes of Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, Gulch, and Alysheba.

Spinoff had 2 very sharp workouts in May after the Kentucky Derby including a 5f move in :59+ on the Belmont main track.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Harlan, Orientate, Mt. Livermore, Carson City, War Front, Danzig, Mr. Greeley, Gone West, and Rubiano all did their best running around one turn.

That is correct.

Unless you figured out the female side dosage profile, index, mares' CD, and female side triads, you wouldn't see what I'm seeing. Understand that not everyone uses only the male side dosage stuff ala Roman.

The male side of things is nothing but speed, so if you are looking *there* for stamina, you won't find it. Unfortunately, he appears to run to that ...... which I already pointed out.

The only horses who have as strong female traids as he does is spinoff, tax (which I already discussed in other topic), and perhaps Sir Winston and WoW. Whehter or not any of them run to *that* is as much of a crapshoot as the way you are doing it.

[Tee]

Intrepid Heart has the pedigree, is going blinkers on & did happen to go gate to wire going a mile in his debut.

Dam is by Belmont winner Touch Gold. Has already produced a Belmont runner up in Commissioner. We know Tapit can sire a Belmont Stakes winner.

Is he good enough to win in his 4th career start?

[señorclipclop]

Intrepid Heart is also a 3/4 brother to my favorite money burner last year, Hofburg.

[clicknow]

I was just laying out what I know about Joevia. Sire side dosage if you are trying to "pedigree handicap" is only 1/2 the picture. Joevia's mares are not commercial names and so reminded me of an old-timey pedigree, which is why I looked at him closely and found him *interesting*. I don't think he's a good bet though. But you have to use one of the "speed" horses, so he's would be one of your options. He's got a good Belmont rider, that's about all I can say for him right now.

Hofburg had very unremarkable mare side numbers. His sire side profile was gorgeous, though, and that is why he got bet. But people who worked up his mare side profile before the Derby put him in the same box as Bravazo or Lone Sailor before the race. (Interestingly, when you look at the KY Derby results for that year, indeed, he ran right around the same place they did.) He would have needed everything to go his way to compete in the trifecta. I'm sure he was also helped by the "mott factor". Conversely, Instilled Regard had killer mare side stamina numbers in his profile.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Hofburg had very unremarkable mare side numbers. His sire side profile was gorgeous, though, and that is why he got bet.

I'd love to see the mare side numbers on Soothing Touch, the dam of Hofburg.

Not only did she herself already produce multiple Grade 1 winning route filly Emollient, but her 4th dam was the Stavros Niarchos foundation mare Coup de Folie, responsible for a bevy of classic horses in Europe including Arc winner Bago and the great stallion Machiavellian.

Soothing Touch traces back to blue hen mares Natalma (dam of Northern Dancer, etc.) and Alamahmoud (Northern Dancer, Halo, etc.).

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I'd love to see the mare side numbers on Soothing Touch, the dam of Hofburg.

Not only did she herself already produce multiple Grade 1 winning route filly Emollient, but her 4th dam was the Stavros Niarchos foundation mare Coup de Folie, responsible for a bevy of classic horses in Europe including Arc winner Bago and the great stallion Machiavellian.

Soothing Touch traces back to blue hen mares Natalma (dam of Northern Dancer, etc.) and Alamahmoud (Northern Dancer, Halo, etc.).

A number of 2-d female families have won the derby (my family lists are outdated but I have 4 listed.......ND, Giacomo, Spec Bid and Cannonade). but I don't think any have ever won the Belmont, go figure, w/the 2-d (Almahmoud) in there they all ran 3rd except for giacomo who ran 7th. Maybe this year?