Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
1.00 0.38 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07
2.00 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.10
3.00 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.13
4.00 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16
5.00 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18
Odds rank left to right. Finish position top to bottom
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Im looking at just the
WIN frequency of the 1st through 5th betting choices from your chart.
(Correct me if Im wrong)
1st choice Wins
38% of the time
2nd choice Wins 21% of the time (1st & 2nd choice Win
59% of the time)
3rd choice Wins 14% of the time (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win
73% of the time)
4th choice Wins 10% of the time (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win
83% of the time)
5th choice Wins 7% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win
90% of the time)
On the surface this may seem to have some sort of very general statistical value.
Unfortunately, its a conglomeration of results without discrimination between race class, race distance, horses age & sex, track conditions, and most importantly a distinction between the race tracks themselves. Even without consideration for the race conditions these type O.A. of statistics vary widely when comparing tracks like SA or BEL versus GP or OP, or versus LS or EVD.
Now dont get me wrong! This type of statistical profile can be VERY revealing and useful (perhaps even rewarding) when this same information is based on a complete itemization of each race that includes
ALL pertinent race conditions and the track itself.
For example,
Belmont Park MSW 3yr old &^ 1m on the dirt
1st choice Wins 35% of the time
2nd choice Wins 22% of the time (1st & 2nd choice Win 57% of the time)
3rd choice Wins 17% of the time (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 74% of the time)
4th choice Wins 7% of the time (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 81% of the time)
5th choice Wins 4% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 85% of the time)
Belmont Park MCL 3yr old &^ 1&1/16m on the turf
1st choice Wins 28% of the time
2nd choice Wins 18% of the time (1st & 2nd choice Win 46% of the time)
3rd choice Wins 15% of the time (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 61% of the time)
4th choice Wins 9% of the time (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 70% of the time)
5th choice Wins 5% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 75% of the time)
Belmont Park CLM 35K to 50K 3yr old &^ 6f on the dirt
1st choice Wins 33% of the time
2nd choice Wins 25% of the time (1st & 2nd choice Win 58% of the time)
3rd choice Wins 19% of the time (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 77% of the time)
4th choice Wins 8% of the time (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 85% of the time)
5th choice Wins 6% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 91% of the time)
Evangeline Downs CLM 5K to 10K 3yr old &^ 6f on the dirt
1st choice Wins 31% of the time
2nd choice Wins 22% of the time (1st & 2nd choice Win 53% of the time)
3rd choice Wins 15% of the time (1st, 2nd & 3rd choice Win 68% of the time)
4th choice Wins 10% of the time (1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th choice Win 78% of the time)
5th choice Wins 5% of the time - (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th & 5th choice Win 83% of the time)
Of course this involves more work. However, when the race results are clearly broken down these type of statistical profiles when compared from one type of race to another at even the same race track can become real eye openers.
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