*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Nope. No tracks in Vegas but plenty of race books...

Was reading a history of Vegas, and at one time they did have a thoroughbred track. It had one problem after another and lasted a grand total of 13 days of racing--then shut down.
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2008/ap...ing-las-vegas/

The history of Las Vegas is absolutely fascinating...there has never been, nor will ever be, another town like it.

[NorCalGreg]

I crack up at the websites selling their "winning" horse race selections...racing programs that proclaim a solid profit just by buying their program...and at the bottom of the site are the words:

"THIS SITE IS NOT AN INDUCEMENT TO GAMBLE"

LOL what the heck is it, then? A site to discourage gambling?

That just strikes me as funny.

Got a few spot plays from Presque...keep in mind this post, thread, and website IS NOT AN INDUCEMENT TO GAMBLE.

Presque

Race-3 SECRET MILITAIRE 6-1

Race-4 REGAL CHANT 8-1

Race-8 TALK TO THE MEDIA 20-1

[Tor Ekman]

Nice hits at Presque Isle

[NorCalGreg]

Tx Tor--it's been awhile. Take a break from the ponies?


Try my luck at Parx today:



...and a couple longshots:

6TH RACE CHILLY IN CHARGE 8-1

7TH RACE ZIPPER'S HERO 12-1

good luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

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INDIANA GRAND

RACE 4 - ARCH REVENGE 12-1

[NorCalGreg]

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We talked about this horse about a month ago. Mainly why this horse kept getting claimed, re-claimed - and never winning. Yes...I played it

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[NorCalGreg]

I've been doing some reading in the PA Archive Software section lately.

I read something very interesting...from our own Jeff P. of J-Capper fame. This was from about 10 years ago.

First, a little backround--I use the LAST paceline...it's easy and quick. I show the horse's last two 1st call positions, and lengths behind the leader at that call.

The reason being, if there is a big difference--say the last race shows the horse 5th and 8 lengths behind at the 1st call--and the race before that--the horse was 2nd by 1/2 length...you need to check the pp's and see what happened.
Could be the horse had gate trouble, etc...OR the trainer had no intention of "trying" that last time out. Especially noticeable if the horse comes right back in 2 or 3 weeks.

I've been scoffed, chuckled at, etc for generally using the last paceline, if nothing seems out of the ordinary.

Here is the comment from Jeff P 10 years ago, and btw--if you didn't know...he's forgotten more than most of us will ever know about handicapping:

"I've spent a lot of R&D time over the years subjecting just about every method of selecting pacelines I could imagine to hard database testing.

Based on my own R&D using large data samples, came to the conclusion that paceline selection isn't nearly as important as a lot of players think it is.

Provided that the same set of rules for picking lines was uniformly applied to every horse in every race... differences between the best and worst performing sets of paceline rules-- were surprisingly small."

SO...my goal with my programs was, and is - to make handicapping as easy and stress-free as possible...yet still win races. That is why using the last paceline 90% of the time, works for me.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

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ARAPAHOE

Race 8 Kanza Kowboy 10-1

[NorCalGreg]

Here's a spot play @ Parx I found while looking over the card today.

It's easy and once in a while finds some big prices. Horses that run a good race...then run a clunker while going up in class - then come right back to the winning level, or lower.

The key to the play is, the horse must come right back to the races after the clunker. Look for jock switches, class drops, etc...in today's race.

Of course they don't always win, and this spot-play is well-known... but you can get some nice payoffs if you keep an eye out for this situation. There's one today @ Parx in the 4th race INCIDENTALLY 12-1:
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[NorCalGreg]

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Good Luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

.....For the hell of it




The two tracks today are the perennial scratch-fest Laurel--and Gulfstream. I dislike both tracks, and rarely play either.

1st & 3rd are LAUREL...the other 3 are GPX


-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

PARX LONGSHOTS

2-VORIAN 10-1
3-ANNIKA GOLD 12-1
7-KAREN'S GEM 20-1
8-AMERICAN POWER 5-1

[NorCalGreg]

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Lets take a shot at LOS ALAMITOS today--this is the TIP SHEET from the EXOTIC BETS program



I wouldn't hold my breath for getting that 12-1 on the Value Play
QUEEN BEE TO YOU in the 8th

[Longshot6977]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

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I wouldn't hold my breath for getting that 12-1 on the Value Play
QUEEN BEE TO YOU in the 8th

But you would hold it at 10-1. Nice hit.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Longshot6977

But you would hold it at 10-1. Nice hit.

Shows you what I know LOL. I expected 4-1 tops.