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06-21-2019, 11:29 PM
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#16
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
[/COLOR]In Las Vegas you can play on-line poker at WSOP.com. They geo-locate your location, and as long as you are within the state borders you can play. You don't have to reside here. Just so I understand with Betfair, if I happen to be in NJ, I can't play there, I actually have to have proof of NJ residency?
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I read the terms and conditions. You definitely have to have a valid mailing address in New Jersey.
I'm not sure why they are so strict about this. Like I said, you can play on-line poker in New Jersey and Las Vegas by just being inside the state.
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06-22-2019, 11:54 AM
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#17
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Registered Wacko
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Belmont-ish
Posts: 2,242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
I've been playing with this. Takes a little getting used to.
If it says the odds are 22-1, it's actually 21-1.
I'm also not quite sure what some of their terms mean.
Position - Not sure exactly what this means. probably just the way they are listed.
Draw - I think draw and saddlecloth are the same thing
Saddlecloth
Win BSP
Industry SP - I can't figure out the meaning of SP and BSP
Place BSP
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Draw: Post position
Saddlecloth: Horse’s program number (Draw and saddlecloth numbers are often different, especially in European handicap races where the higher the saddlecloth number, the higher the weight carried)
Industry SP: Final British bookmaker fixed odds from all entities such as Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, etc. They fluctuate during betting just like pari-mutuel odds, but the last flash at the off is the SP.
BSP: Final Betfair bookmaker fixed odds
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06-22-2019, 12:03 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
Not being in NJ, I can't sign up at Betfair, but can I go into the site and see how things work? How the odds move, liquidty, etc.?
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I wasn't ignoring this but I'm honestly not sure the answer. Maybe? There are ways around these things too but let's just leave that there (personally I don't find the exchange valuable enough to suggest you go through the trouble, but that's just me...maybe if you really knew Charles Town or Emerald well and need to get bets down?).
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06-22-2019, 04:11 PM
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#19
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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I haven't bet on a horse in over 15 years, but this form of wagering could possibly draw me back into the game.
There are some drawbacks however:
1. 12% is way too high. 3-5% sounds more like it. If you lay 500 to win 100 you're actually laying 5.68 to 1.
2. If you can find a false favorite that is odds on, say 3/5, you can lay $300 to win $500, but with the 12% juice it would only pay $440-not so attractive.
3. Not enough wagering outlets.
4. Very restrictive rules and regulations.
On the plus side:
1. Betting a horse not to win fits right inside my baliwick.
2. You can set your own odds if you like.
3. In race wagering sounds interesting, but it's not something I would focus on in the beginning.
4. I'm also not interested in harness or foreign races, but there appears to be enough USA T-Bred tracks to bet on any given day.
5. It also looks like there are possible arbitrage situations that could arise. If you bet an 11-1 to win, and the odds dropped to 5-1, you could buy it back by laying the 5-1. If the horse wins you still make money and if it loses you break even. If you bet more money on the 5-1, than the 11-1 you would make money either way.
The same would be true in reverse. Lay the 5-1, and back it at 11-1.
The math of lay bets seems fairly straightforward. you would have to be pretty good at estimating probabilities. If you laid a 2-1 shot, there would have to be a 66.6% chance of her not winning to break even. 75%+ would represent a decent overlay.
I don't think that I would want to lay too high of a price. I would probably arbitrarily set my cap at 8-1.
There are quite a few decent set-ups for finding lay bet opportunities:
False favorites
Need to lead types that won't be able to get the lead
Deep closers in a paceless race
Multiple low-odds horses in contentious races
Horses who can't run to the pars
...and the list goes on...
but again that 12%...
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06-22-2019, 05:15 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 370
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There's an army of bots on Betfair. Its almost like the Terminator movies.
except the bots are fighting each other and the human resistance has to try and dodge in between them.
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06-22-2019, 09:05 PM
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#21
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
There's an army of bots on Betfair. Its almost like the Terminator movies.
except the bots are fighting each other and the human resistance has to try and dodge in between them.
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Does this mean you have problems getting filled? Are they front-running your orders?
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06-23-2019, 04:03 AM
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#22
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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I have another question about the bots. Are the bots programs initiated by retail traders like you, me and all the other horseplayers, or are they put in by Betfair for whatever reasons?
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06-24-2019, 09:25 AM
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#23
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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There must not be too many people here from New Jersey. Maybe a couple.
This type of betting seems like a no brainer to me. It's might not be worth moving to Jersey, but it would be worth visiting if you could bet as a guest.
I'm curious how things work across the pond as well. Can you bet as a guest there? How about the rake in places like England? Can you bet American races over there?
Back when I was playing a lot, I was really good at narrowing down the field. I was also good at finding false favorites. It seems like in almost every race there are horses that you know can't wn. And many at decent prices too. (Low odds.)
I was sadly lacking in my ability to arrow down my final contenders and find the eventual winner. I did OK, but not great.
I've been paper betting using the free racing forms around town. I just go with the final odds. I haven't had a loser yet in about 12 races, but I will. It's coming.
Still, if this catches on around the country, I think there is good money to be made. I see alot of potential here.
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06-24-2019, 09:52 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 370
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06-24-2019, 10:18 AM
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#25
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
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Thanks, I'll look into it.
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06-25-2019, 05:06 AM
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#26
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
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I've been looking at all of these links and doing some reading. Wow. Pretty involved. There are a lot of software programs to help with the betting process. Automating things. Speeding up the process. Finding and betting arbitrage situations. There are some serious "punters" residing on Betfair.
I especially liked this little bit from an Aussie, who bets Aussie rules football:
"I was working from home and the profits were tax free as I had gained a formal endorsement from the ATO (Tax Office) that my operation was, in fact, based on luck on a market by market basis,” he said."
Link
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06-25-2019, 06:50 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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In the uk, yes you can bet up races, in fact the list of tracks includes the New York tracks. It always amazes me, Jersey is right next to New York and you can not book an exchange wager on Belmont, however if you live in London you can.
Also on the uk exchange, they have something called a premium charge which is placed on winning accounts basically a tax on winners, none of that in jersey.
Allan
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06-27-2019, 03:05 PM
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#29
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tmrpots
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
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Interesting, but I have no idea what I'm looking at. It would be informative if they could break down what's actually happening.
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06-30-2019, 12:06 PM
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#30
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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