R11 G1 Belmont Stakes 6/9/19

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by cj

While I think he might win with a clean trip, I still think Mitole was the best in the Met. Put another way, if McKinzie gets through and wins by a length with what would have been a perfect trip, was he really best given the trips and race shape?

Unfortunately for me, McKinzie wasn't forwardly placed ... if he wins I take down the pick 6 with Sir Winston making it rich at the end, darn.

Do you think that the ticket would have been much less given Mitole was pretty well bet, fairly similar to McKinzie? I think 38k should have been 20k+ with McKinzie ... it would be cool if we could ever see this, just for statistical reasons.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

I think it is pretty clear Tacitus was the best horse and Joel was the best rider, and in this case the rider carried more weight. It happens, best horse doesn't always win but I think it would be hard to argue that Sir Winston was really best today.

Also think that Tacitus was best. From the replay he was 4w5w losing about 7 lengths to Sir Winston who was never far off the rail. I originally blamed Ortiz, but after watching replay saw that he never had a chance to come in from his wide post in the tightly packed field. Just bad luck of the draw.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

except this time he was backing up badly, and may have been his own culprit in the bump.

Casse said that he didn't seem himself throughout the as he usually runs aggressively from the start. I also think he doesn't take well to being bumped as he faded badly afterwords, like in the Derby. Tacitus, on the other hand, just shook it off as usual for him, and kept on going.

[cj]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Unfortunately for me, McKinzie wasn't forwardly placed ... if he wins I take down the pick 6 with Sir Winston making it rich at the end, darn.

Do you think that the ticket would have been much less given Mitole was pretty well bet, fairly similar to McKinzie? I think 38k should have been 20k+ with McKinzie ... it would be cool if we could ever see this, just for statistical reasons.

I actually talked about him in our Pace Projector piece, he was a really tough read. We showed him pretty far back as he was the last time he tried one turn in the Malibu and that turned out correct. Shows the difference between one turn and two turn speed.

I'm not sure what the payoffs would have been, but I'd guess less than 20k as heavy a favorite as McKinzie was.

[Secondbest]

How much does Global Campaign move up after Sir Winston's win.? Anyone know what's next for him.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

How much does Global Campaign move up after Sir Winston's win.? Anyone know what's next for him.

Global Campaign was part of the reason I bet Sir Winston, in the Peter Pan I thought GC was a cinch, got the exact trip I wanted, continued willingly to the win the race yet Sir Winston almost ran him down.

[Secondbest]

Good call.