updated final fractions 3/8 and 1/8

[sbcaris]

Here are my final fractions for the top 26 point getters-last race at 9 furlongs

Horse----------------final 3/8------------------final 1/8
Nyquist--------------37 4/5--------------------12 4/5
Exaggerator---------37 3/5--------------------13 2/5
Brodys Cause-------37 3/5--------------------13
Creator--------------37 2/5--------------------12 3/5
Majesto--------------38-------------------------12 4/5
Suddenbreaknews--37 4/5---------------------12 3/5
Fellowship-----------37 4/5---------------------12 4/5
My Man Sam--------37 2/5---------------------12 3/5
Cherry Wine---------37 4/5---------------------13

The above are the only qualifiers this year. Note: Cherry Wine might not get in unless there are 6 scratches.

Side note: In the last 22 years there were only two Derby winners that qualified on final furlong time ONLY. They were: Grindstone in 1996 and Super Saver in 2010. Before 1994 the racing from pps did not include the mile call so I could not figure out final furlong time for horses in the Derby before 1994.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Does Nyquist qualify on buckpasser-x?

[sbcaris]

Yes, Nyquist is the only qualifier that has Buckpasser in the X plus the fast final fraction time.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Yes, Nyquist is the only qualifier that has Buckpasser in the X plus the fast final fraction time.

So at the end of the day, the only knock on him is his DI? Any other undefeated 2 yr champ that waxed the other undefeated favorite in his final prep, with those times & buckpasser, would be an absolute no brainer win bet against this field.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dballard125

So at the end of the day, the only knock on him is his DI? Any other undefeated 2 yr champ that waxed the other undefeated favorite in his final prep, with those times & buckpasser, would be an absolute no brainer win bet against this field.

Bet your house on Nyquist, lol!

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Bet your house on Nyquist, lol!

You bet yours on Gun Runner first

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dballard125

You bet yours on Gun Runner first

Hmm....I just might, lol!

[MNslappy]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Horse----------------final 3/8------------------final 1/8
Nyquist--------------37 4/5--------------------12 4/5
Exaggerator---------37 3/5--------------------13 2/5

Pretty eye-opening numbers here, considering what it looked like visually, with Exaggerator appearing to absolutely blast home. His final furlong was almost a second slower, but you'd never guess it just watching the FL Derby and SA Derby.

[sammy the sage]

does the fact so many come from the fla. derby make those times ???? or they all just that good....hhhhmmmm

[fiznow]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here are my final fractions for the top 26 point getters-last race at 9 furlongs

Horse----------------final 3/8------------------final 1/8
Nyquist--------------37 4/5--------------------12 4/5
Exaggerator---------37 3/5--------------------13 2/5
Brodys Cause-------37 3/5--------------------13
Creator--------------37 2/5--------------------12 3/5
Majesto--------------38-------------------------12 4/5
Suddenbreaknews--37 4/5---------------------12 3/5
Fellowship-----------37 4/5---------------------12 4/5
My Man Sam--------37 2/5---------------------12 3/5
Cherry Wine---------37 4/5---------------------13

The above are the only qualifiers this year. Note: Cherry Wine might not get in unless there are 6 scratches.

Side note: In the last 22 years there were only two Derby winners that qualified on final furlong time ONLY. They were: Grindstone in 1996 and Super Saver in 2010. Before 1994 the racing from pps did not include the mile call so I could not figure out final furlong time for horses in the Derby before 1994.

Considering Nyquists running time was 1.49.11 and Exaggerators 1.49.66 it means Exaggerator got slower in the finish? Now that's weird. Or did he look so impressive because the others just stuck in the mud?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by fiznow

Considering Nyquists running time was 1.49.11 and Exaggerators 1.49.66 it means Exaggerator got slower in the finish? Now that's weird. Or did he look so impressive because the others just stuck in the mud?

Both horses ran near identical closing 3/8th times. If you believe Beyer figures then the Santa Anita track for the SA Derby was running considerably slower than Gulf for the FL Derby... A 103 BSF versus 94 despite half second slower real time. If you really want to play the adjusted time angle then Trojan Nation received a 93 BSF in the Wood but the final time was 3.82 seconds slower than the FL Derby (yet nearly identical BSF). Was Aqueduct really running 3.8 seconds slower than Gulf? I don't know but if you adjust Trojan Nation's raw final 3/8th of approx 38 4/5 you end up with something closer to an impressive 37 3/5 and a live 50-1 play.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by fiznow

Considering Nyquists running time was 1.49.11 and Exaggerators 1.49.66 it means Exaggerator got slower in the finish? Now that's weird. Or did he look so impressive because the others just stuck in the mud?

You may find this video interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2PQhXDBfTA

According to Trakus, Nyquists average speed (35.6 mph) was 1.6 mph faster in the final 3/8 of the FD, than Exaggerator was in the SAD (34 mph). The horses in the SAD were crawling home.

Trakus is GPS tracked data, so it doesn't lie. The numbers just are what they are.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dballard125

According to Trakus, Nyquists average speed (35.6 mph) was 1.6 mph faster in the final 3/8 of the FD, than Exaggerator was in the SAD (34 mph). The horses in the SAD were crawling home.

Trakus is GPS tracked data, so it doesn't lie. The numbers just are what they are.

I don't doubt the data but I certainly don't end with raw times/speeds, particularly different tracks and conditions. Dale Earnhardt's car will be faster at Daytona than it will be at Bristol.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I don't doubt the data but I certainly don't end with raw times/speeds, particularly different tracks and conditions. Dale Earnhardt's car will be faster at Daytona than it will be at Bristol.

True, but everyone talks about how "fast" Exaggerator was closing in the SAD...when in reality, his speed in the final 3/8 was slower than Nyquists. That's why I really enjoy Trakus. It adjusts perspective on what we think we're seeing. Now, like you said...one was on a fast track and one was in the slop. So that must be taken into account obviously.

At the end of the day, these two horses are likely going to be my plays on top of next Saturday's tickets. I just think they're the class of this crop, and it won't surprise me if either win.

[fiznow]

Originally Posted by dballard125

You may find this video interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2PQhXDBfTA

According to Trakus, Nyquists average speed (35.6 mph) was 1.6 mph faster in the final 3/8 of the FD, than Exaggerator was in the SAD (34 mph). The horses in the SAD were crawling home.

Trakus is GPS tracked data, so it doesn't lie. The numbers just are what they are.

Thank you, it's very interesting indeed. I know Trakus, it's very useful.