Haskin's Derby Dozen

[PowerUpPaynter]

Just wanted to pass along a great read. Steve is a fantastic writer. Like the comments about Whitmore and Mohaymen


http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentu...well-farm.aspx

[SecretAgentMan]

I like reading his derby dozen, but I think he's way off on his list.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I like reading his derby dozen, but I think he's way off on his list.

LOL you love Gun Runner, so of course you do

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dballard125

LOL you love Gun Runner, so of course you do

Haha, I do, but how does he have Whitmore & SBN ahead of GR? That boggles my mind!

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Haha, I do, but how does he have Whitmore & SBN ahead of GR? That boggles my mind!

Not to rain on the parade here but Whitmore and SBN have run faster races than Gun Runner on most figures. Especially the ones Haskin is known to favor.

GR has a nice pattern and may be sitting on an improvement but he will need it just to contend. Some things to like, price not one of them.... He has the look of an underlay

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Not to rain on the parade here but Whitmore and SBN have run faster races than Gun Runner on most figures. Especially the ones Haskin is known to favor.

GR has a nice pattern and may be sitting on an improvement but he will need it just to contend. Some things to like, price not one of them.... He has the look of an underlay

People are so consumed with times every year. Chrome & AP stood out over the rest with their beyers & times, even I'll Have Another had great times, but no one in this years derby field is remotely close to the times of the 3 I mentioned. Nyquist might be undefeated 7 for 7, he's working out softly, I'm starting to think Doug is over confident & will cone back to bite him.

I think this years derby will have people scratching their heads saying, wtf happened, this horse wasn't supposed to win, his timed are too slow, as you mentioned.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

People are so consumed with times every year. Chrome & AP stood out over the rest with their beyers & times, even I'll Have Another had great times, but no one in this years derby field is remotely close to the times of the 3 I mentioned. Nyquist might be undefeated 7 for 7, he's working out softly, I'm starting to think Doug is over confident & will cone back to bite him.

I think this years derby will have people scratching their heads saying, wtf happened, this horse wasn't supposed to win, his timed are too slow, as you mentioned.

I think one way to go is to assume Nyquist wins, and structure your tickets with him singled.

A second way is to assume he runs 2nd, third, or fourth, and single him in each hole.

A third way is to assume Nyquist runs out of the 4 top spots and bet accordingly...

So may be the gambling way is to have most of your ticket with him not 1st or 2nd or third, include him in the fourth hole and focus on the others.

What I might do is look for the single I can use that has the longest odds and single that one in all 4 spots while including Nyquist also in all 4 spots. How will you structure your tickets?

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

People are so consumed with times every year. Chrome & AP stood out over the rest with their beyers & times, even I'll Have Another had great times, but no one in this years derby field is remotely close to the times of the 3 I mentioned. Nyquist might be undefeated 7 for 7, he's working out softly, I'm starting to think Doug is over confident & will cone back to bite him.

I think this years derby will have people scratching their heads saying, wtf happened, this horse wasn't supposed to win, his timed are too slow, as you mentioned.

I just think you tend to argue (or ignore) any trend or data, that isn't flattering towards Gun Runner lol.

Times? They're not nearly as important as people make them out to be, because Gun Runner's aren't that impressive.

Trends? Horses don't tend to win the KD, straight from the Louisiana Derby? Who cares...trends are there to be broken.

Quality of competition? Yeah Nyquist is 7-7 and beaten Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody's Cause. He's won on different tracks, in different conditions, and at different positions in the race. Who cares...he's being worked lightly and his trainers overconfident.

Try not to be so obvious with your bias man lol.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I think one way to go is to assume Nyquist wins, and structure your tickets with him singled.

A second way is to assume he runs 2nd, third, or fourth, and single him in each hole.

A third way is to assume Nyquist runs out of the 4 top spots and bet accordingly...

So may be the gambling way is to have most of your ticket with him not 1st or 2nd or third, include him in the fourth hole and focus on the others.

What I might do is look for the single I can use that has the longest odds and single that one in all 4 spots while including Nyquist also in all 4 spots. How will you structure your tickets?

I've already played Gun Runner to win. My win tickets are done, & I won't vet another horse to win.

I will also put GR on top of a triple with 8 horses 2nd & the same 8 horses 3rd for a $1, costing I believe $56. A super with the same 8 in bottom 3 spots would cost a bit over $300.

As for what horses am I scared of? It certainly isn't Nyquist. Nyquist will be underneath in.my triples tho.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I just think you tend to argue (or ignore) any trend or data, that isn't flattering towards Gun Runner lol.

Times? They're not nearly as important as people make them out to be, because Gun Runner's aren't that impressive.

Trends? Horses don't tend to win the KD, straight from the Louisiana Derby? Who cares...trends are there to be broken.

Quality of competition? Yeah Nyquist is 7-7 and beaten Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody's Cause. He's won on different tracks, in different conditions, and at different positions in the race. Who cares...he's being worked lightly and his trainers overconfident.

Try not to be so obvious with your bias man lol.

I am Mr Angles & Trends guy, but reality is, they are & have been broken past couple years. Did you think we would see a triple crown winner after so long?

We all have our favorite horse, & we try tonvacknit up on why we like it, & of course we will argue with others because there's no way we will ever agree on the same horse & why that horse can win.

I'm just glad that no horse ran like AP or Chrome this year, then I would be scared.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I've already played Gun Runner to win. My win tickets are done, & I won't vet another horse to win.

I will also put GR on top of a triple with 8 horses 2nd & the same 8 horses 3rd for a $1, costing I believe $56. A super with the same 8 in bottom 3 spots would cost a bit over $300.

As for what horses am I scared of? It certainly isn't Nyquist. Nyquist will be underneath in.my triples tho.

What if GR draws 1, 2, 18, 19, 20? You think he's good enough to overcome those post positions?

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I just think you tend to argue (or ignore) any trend or data, that isn't flattering towards Gun Runner lol.

Times? They're not nearly as important as people make them out to be, because Gun Runner's aren't that impressive.

Trends? Horses don't tend to win the KD, straight from the Louisiana Derby? Who cares...trends are there to be broken.

Quality of competition? Yeah Nyquist is 7-7 and beaten Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody's Cause. He's won on different tracks, in different conditions, and at different positions in the race. Who cares...he's being worked lightly and his trainers overconfident.

Try not to be so obvious with your bias man lol.

Couldn't care less about the 6 weeks and LA Derby... All that stuff is media narrative anyways. The actual numbers suggest 6 weeks and 2 preps is probably optimal.

NO HORSE is coming into the Derby with a better prep schedule/pattern... the problem is you're playing this horse "on the come" at underlaid odds. I'm not talking about times, I'm talking about speed figures.

I don't hate him and I'm considering using him (only because of the pattern). I just hate the price for what he has actually done thus far on the racetrack.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dballard125

What if GR draws 1, 2, 18, 19, 20? You think he's good enough to overcome those post positions?

I would bet money he doesn't get none of those 5 posts. But since you asked me, I think he could win from.post 2, not post 1. And I don't know about those outside post. You gotta have talent like Big Brown to win from post #20, & no one has that kind of talent in this field.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Couldn't care less about the 6 weeks and LA Derby... All that stuff is media narrative anyways. The actual numbers suggest 6 weeks and 2 preps is probably optimal.

NO HORSE is coming into the Derby with a better prep schedule/pattern... the problem is you're playing this horse "on the come" at underlaid odds. I'm not talking about times, I'm talking about speed figures.

I don't hate him and I'm considering using him (only because of the pattern). I just hate the price for what he has actually done thus far on the racetrack.

My real concern with GR is, he hasn't beat anyone of significance and he's yet to run in a G1...let alone win it. If he draws decent, I'll play him on top of one saver ticket, just to be safe. But I see him finishing in the 3-7 range.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I would bet money he doesn't get none of those 5 posts. But since you asked me, I think he could win from.post 2, not post 1. And I don't know about those outside post. You gotta have talent like Big Brown to win from post #20, & no one has that kind of talent in this field.

There's a 75% chance he doesn't, so you're likely right. I hope he doesn't, to be honest, because I want to see if this pre-Derby hype is warranted. A lot of 'expect handicappers' are on his bandwagon...that's for sure.