A moment of clarity

[PowerUpPaynter]

Im sitting here going over the PPs and something just occurred to me. There is really only a couple of horses who could WIN this race. You can eliminate a bunch of horse on 2 things:

1. Just not fast enough

2. Not enough of a foundation

So iv narrowed it down to the following horses who can WIN the race:

in random order....

Nyquist
Creator
Mohaymen
Exaggerator
Mor Spirit
Destin
Whitmore

One of those horses will win this derby.

Gun Runner and Brody's Cause are close but I eliminate them based on low beyers a major move forward from a 91 i dont see. and im not a big beyer guy but they do help putting horses into groups


im starting to like Creator more and more

[forced89]

.....and I like Suddenbreakingnews.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Im sitting here going over the PPs and something just occurred to me. There is really only a couple of horses who could WIN this race. You can eliminate a bunch of horse on 2 things:

1. Just not fast enough

2. Not enough of a foundation

So iv narrowed it down to the following horses who can WIN the race:

in random order....

Nyquist
Creator
Mohaymen
Exaggerator
Mor Spirit
Destin
Whitmore

One of those horses will win this derby.

Gun Runner and Brody's Cause are close but I eliminate them based on low beyers a major move forward from a 91 i dont see. and im not a big beyer guy but they do help putting horses into groups


im starting to like Creator more and more

Whitmore? Really?

[SecretAgentMan]

Animal Kingdom went from a 94 beyer in his last prep to a 103 in the KD

Giacomo from a 95 to a 100 in the KD, that's right, we year Bellamy Road received a 120 beyer in the Wood.

Mine that Bird from an 80 to a 105.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Animal Kingdom went from a 94 beyer in his last prep to a 103 in the KD

Giacomo from a 95 to a 100 in the KD, that's right, we year Bellamy Road received a 120 beyer in the Wood.

Mine that Bird from an 80 to a 105.

the jumps from 94 or 95's im ok with. expecting a jump from 91 i better be getting at least 35 or 40-1. gun runner will be like 15-1 best case and Brody will be even less

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

the jumps from 94 or 95's im ok with. expecting a jump from 91 i better be getting at least 35 or 40-1. gun runner will be like 15-1 best case and Brody will be even less

Who says the KD winner won't receive just a 101? You know I like Gun Runner, so we will be debating about these horses until after the derby, lol!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Who says the KD winner won't receive just a 101? You know I like Gun Runner, so we will be debating about these horses until after the derby, lol!

yeah and im going to change my mind numerous times before then.... just saw all Dale Roman's derby horses have finished top 4 except 1

Brody in the play for the super

[Andrick]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

yeah and im going to change my mind numerous times before then.... just saw all Dale Roman's derby horses have finished top 4 except 1

Brody in the play for the super

He's had a few that didn't crack the super. Keen Ice and Medal Count the last couple of years, and he had Sharp Humor who finish 19th back in '06. In between those he did have three that finished in the super. So he's shooting 50% to get one in there.

Agree with your initial sentiments. Two weeks out I'm only seeing a handful in the field that are legitimate win candidates.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Andrick

He's had a few that didn't crack the super. Keen Ice and Medal Count the last couple of years, and he had Sharp Humor who finish 19th back in '06. In between those he did have three that finished in the super. So he's shooting 50% to get one in there.

Agree with your initial sentiments. Two weeks out I'm only seeing a handful in the field that are legitimate win candidates.

and realistically its probably going to be Nyquist not because he is a world beater but because the rest of the field is crappy and he is somewhat above average

[Andrick]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

and realistically its probably going to be Nyquist not because he is a world beater but because the rest of the field is crappy and he is somewhat above average

Narrowing my handful down even more I'd say Nyquist looks like, along with Exaggerator and Creator, one of the three most likely with my eyes.

[f2tornado]

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

[Andrick]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

Both Exaggerator and Creator have that maintain and/or improve pattern to their BSF as well, which so many of the Derby winners of the recent past have shown going into the race. Street Sense is the only Derby winner over the last 23 who saw a regression in his BSF of over 3 in his final prep, and even that one can be excused since his number was at the mercy of the others crawling on the lead.

Exaggerator and Creator also have that very nice top, pair, top pattern on thorograph without any big jump ups in tops from either.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I believe the Derby winner has had a top 8 BSF in a 9F prep since at least 2003. The top 8 this year if my eyes are correct:

Exaggerator - 103
Destin - 100 (not a 9F prep)
Creator - 96
Nyquist - 94
Mor Spirit - 94
Suddenbreakingnews - 94
Outwork - 93
Trojan Nation - 93
Whitmore - 92

These from above have final 3/8th in big 9F prep in 37.8 or less:
Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Suddenbreakingnews

Of the smaller list above these have dosage index below 6:
Exaggerator
Creator
Suddenbreakingnews

Of these, the following have Raise A Native sire line.
Exaggerator

That's my top pick for the win. No use overthinking it.

F2 once again we are on just about the same exact page. Because this Derby is wide open I will likely use 3 horses on the win line in a tri but at this moment Exaggerator meets all my requirements for a derby bet(and you covered them well) and I can live with his performances on off tracks. I think he is for real and his conditioning against the paces and horses in California puts him able to deal with any pace scenario. Only surprising sub 4-1 odds could change my mind. But it's early!

[bks]

Danzing Candy Ran a 100 Beyer, and beat Exaggerator and Mor Spirit doing so. That alone puts him above about 3/4 of the horses listed above.

[lamboguy]

these horses are all 3 year olds, i have no idea how you can eliminate a horse because he has lower beyer numbers or any other type of number. when they are that young they are constantly improving.

one probably thinks that because a horse has a lower number he can't improve his performance to much because he is coming from such a lower point. i couldn't disagree more. when you are dealing with young horses they go up and down the ladder in a blink of the eye.