Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-22-2016, 09:32 PM   #1
glengarry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 159
Derby handicapping approach-no race like it.

I heard it on Steve Byk's show this morning. I think he quoted Andy Beyer (could be someone else) as saying that the Derby should be capped like any other race. If it was Beyer, that would account for his abysmal derby selections over the years. The derby is like no other race in the U.S. Everything has to be taken into account: wind, temperature, humidity, elevation, even the Coriolis effect, the spin of the earth, comes into play.

The field size, the distance, the crowd noise, and the pressure on jockey and trainer all make this race unique. A few horses will lose all chance at the start. Others will wilt before they even enter the gate, as the sheer volume of noise will overcome them. Others will, for no apparent reason, just come up totally empty.

I know many here already have their derby choice. Just like Michael Corleone told Hyman Roth, I'm going to wait. I need to see the last 2 works for each contender. I want to see how they came out of the works. I need to wait for the PP draw, as I don't want to get locked into a horse then see him draw the one post. I may even wait to see how the track is playing, and check the weather forecast regularly. It generally takes a very special horse to win this race. That quality may only have been hinted at prior to the race, but it may soon, like Animal Kingdom, become apparent.

This year is a puzzler. The horse with the best resume is not particularly fast, at least according to Beyer and some other speed figures out there. Plus, he had a small hiccup after leaving Florida. The horse that seemed headed for possible favorite status threw in a clunker of the highest order. Wide trip or not, he didn't show up. I will not be looking to toss Nyquist if he trains up to the race beautifully and draws well. Some here are willing to do so. I have to have a reason, be it his appearance or lack of energy or composure in his works and gallops, or because I feel another horse has yet to show the greatness I know is there. I have not seen anyone that will make this race show me anything special yet. I'm also looking closely at Gun Runner, who may be a bit slow but has looked visually impressive in his recent races and who should get the trip. I won't be getting any news of note from TVG, as they are apparently fighting with Twin Spires and therefore won't be covering Derby and Oaks works as has been the norm over the last few years.

Last edited by glengarry; 04-22-2016 at 09:34 PM.
glengarry is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2016, 11:06 PM   #2
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Anyone that thinks they can handicap the derby like any other race is nuts, & if beyer whoever said that is nuts!
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2016, 11:58 PM   #3
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
i'm not so certain this race is as wide open as many would like.

but i also thought zulu and cupid were going to be tough as well, and got no run from either.

it's pretty hard not calling out both nyquist and exaggerator on a 5 horse exacta box..it can get a little dicey after that, but there is a pecking order as well..i'm sure brody and mor spirit will be called frequently...and once the PP come out i expect the wise guy horse will be my man sam.

dunno what destin and outlook will be odds wise, but there are some good things w/ them as well
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2016, 10:31 AM   #4
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Its sort of like any other race. But some people almost make things too hard. There's such a thing as "thinking too much." I see people over analyzing all the time. There's only a few outcomes, the race goes to form and you play the logical players......or there is a traffic snafu and all bets are thrown out the window, as in a pace meltdown or an incident.

The other thing I focus on which gets lost in the shuffle every big day is the undercard. Burnsy sees dollar signs in the big races other than the "big feature". I've been posting enough picks on here, its not a fluke that I do well on the big days. The feature is usually the "fluff"......not always, but most times. There's usually big numbers to be had logically playing the under card stakes. Statistical "over bets" and over lays are bountiful with the pool size.

Here's where its like "every other race". Along some of what glengarry said. You can't be on some horse months or even weeks in advance and expect to have a good play. You may get lucky and hit or maybe the chalk will win but its absurd to be "all in" on someone in advance. There's the weather, the defections (injuries, fever), the draw. Who in their right minds picks a race (other than this one) way in advance? Its fools gold. Like I said, it may be your lucky day, but that's not sound handicapping IMO. Yes, its like any other race....you try to know every variable before you pull the trigger. At least have that "advantage" in your corner.

Common sense.....101. Too simple for smart people too get.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2016, 02:37 PM   #5
clocker7
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 692
One factor that rarely (if ever) gets mentioned is the disparity of weights for the last preps. People are always comparing speeds and adjusted ones in all of their intricacies, without mentioning that some only carried 118 while the SA Derby guys humped 124.
clocker7 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-23-2016, 03:27 PM   #6
fiznow
Registered User
 
fiznow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
I agree, the Derby is like no other race. But this is also the reason why I always considered betting in the Derby as fun. Because I just can't bet seriously and put a lot of money in a race with 20 3 year olds. Sure I select my horse and rout for him but the Derby is rather a watch race than a bet race for me.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
fiznow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 07:51 AM   #7
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,163
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Anyone that thinks they can handicap the derby like any other race is nuts, & if beyer whoever said that is nuts!
Of course Beyer is right.

The big different here, is that YOU should be capping EVERY race like you cap the Derby.

That's where you get it wrong.
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 08:36 AM   #8
ronsmac
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,748
Other than the obvious 19 or 20 horse field, with the elimination of the no chance sprinters who used to run every year and screw the pace up. The Derby seems much closer to a normal race than it has in decades. This is after the fact but the last 2 winners probably qualified as low priced overlays. Especially California Chrome who layed over the field in nearly every way. No sophisticated handicapping was needed. There's no dominant horse this year in my opinion but there are about 8 or 9 deep closers who look like automatic tosses on top.
ronsmac is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 09:10 AM   #9
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Of course Beyer is right.

The big different here, is that YOU should be capping EVERY race like you cap the Derby.

That's where you get it wrong.


So you say.
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 10:49 AM   #10
glengarry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by ronsmac
Other than the obvious 19 or 20 horse field, with the elimination of the no chance sprinters who used to run every year and screw the pace up. The Derby seems much closer to a normal race than it has in decades. This is after the fact but the last 2 winners probably qualified as low priced overlays. Especially California Chrome who layed over the field in nearly every way. No sophisticated handicapping was needed. There's no dominant horse this year in my opinion but there are about 8 or 9 deep closers who look like automatic tosses on top.
Even if you toss 8 or 9 closers, you now have a 12 horse field to deal with. In other words, you casually, based on style alone, eliminated a little over 40% of the field, and you still have to deal with a 12 horse field, and that's just on the win end. Then how do you fill out your ticket, unless you are looking to take a win bet on a race that usually has enormous payoffs for the exotics. While I agree that not having no chance sprinters means that the pace can be more reasonable, you have Palace Malice going crazy on the front end, with the possibility that Danzig Candy does the same thing.
glengarry is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 11:00 AM   #11
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,163
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
So you say.
Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 11:36 AM   #12
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 04-25-2016 at 11:47 AM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 12:05 PM   #13
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).


The derby might have been just like any other race back when 13 or less horses were running, but don't kid yourself now a days, there's 20 horses racing & its not like any other race, but then again, I don't have to convince you or anyone else with my opinion.
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 12:09 PM   #14
ronsmac
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by glengarry
Even if you toss 8 or 9 closers, you now have a 12 horse field to deal with. In other words, you casually, based on style alone, eliminated a little over 40% of the field, and you still have to deal with a 12 horse field, and that's just on the win end. Then how do you fill out your ticket, unless you are looking to take a win bet on a race that usually has enormous payoffs for the exotics. While I agree that not having no chance sprinters means that the pace can be more reasonable, you have Palace Malice going crazy on the front end, with the possibility that Danzig Candy does the same thing.
Anything is possible, but when you set a fast pace and blow up. Then there's a tendency to go a little slower next out. If Danzig Candy goes slower earlier which I expect, then he's a real threat. Nyquist has good tactical speed and a horse I bailed on a few days ago who I'm giving 1 more shot is Whitmore. He's probably a hanger but has been ridden incorrectly. He has lots of early speed and has been taken back. I'm hoping they use his speed and have him no worse than 4th on the first turn.
ronsmac is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2016, 12:10 PM   #15
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...

If you like Nyquist on top of exotics, do you winder how he will start the race? Like, will he try to wire the field? Will he stalk the pace? I know if Danzig Candy gets out & runs the same splits as in SA derby, Nyquist will burn up. Or will Nyquist fall back like his Juvenile race.

This derby is difficult in trying to figure out what some horses will do like Nyquist. We know what the closers will do, not a secret because they have only one way of running, but Nyquist has several.
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.