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03-26-2016, 08:54 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Gun Runner
Figured I might as start a thread for this horse since he will be a topic of conversation as we move forward the next 6 weeks. I feel tho that the Louisiana Horses are weak this year.
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03-26-2016, 09:32 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Slow race. Slowest since going to 9F in 2000. The final 3/8th in 38.12 if my math is correct is just a little slower than what I look for. Pretty lousy field to boot. I'm tossing from the KD win pool.
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03-26-2016, 09:34 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by f2tornado
Slow race. Slowest since going to 9F in 2000. The final 3/8th in 38.12 if my math is correct is just a little slower than what I look for. Pretty lousy field to boot. I'm tossing from the KD win pool.
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Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.
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03-26-2016, 09:41 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.
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Lmao, Mo Tom wouldn't have caught Gun Runner, get realistic dude!
He might have gotten second, but either his jockey is bad with this horse or theres something wrong with this horse mentally.
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03-27-2016, 11:58 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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The 91 beyer is weak but there has been some low beyer horses from teh Louisiana Derby to hit the board recently.
2014 Commanding Curve 89 beyer in LA Derby finished 2nd
2013 Golden Soul 85 beyer in LA Derby finished 2nd
2013 Revolutionary 93 Beyer in LA Derby finished 3rd
2011 Mucho Macho Man 93 Beyer in LA Derby finished 3rd
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03-27-2016, 02:34 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.
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This horse would find trouble in a 2 horse field.
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03-27-2016, 02:59 PM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by azeri98
This horse would find trouble in a 2 horse field.
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Somehow, he would get boxed in between that one horse and the rail. 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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03-28-2016, 10:04 AM
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#8
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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This horse has not run the fastest yet. But he keeps getting better. He's tactical and he blew those horses out of the water. Mo Tom was just a bad bet in that race...the price, plus his running style.
This is a perfect example of what I was talking about in that "risk intelligence" thread (expert gamblers). Gun Runner was the most likely winner but had a higher price than Mo Tom. Someone that plays on "probability" like I do is going to be all over Gun Runner in a deal like this. He just beat these horses, he always gets the jump on Mo Tom and he's paying more. That's a perfect storm bet for me.
Asmussen was grinning ear to ear after that one..........don't toss him just yet. He may even have one more step up left in him.
Mo Tom may end up in the super, derby day.......if he does it will most likely be a "suck up" trip for a placing. He has to do better than what he's doing now.
Last edited by burnsy; 03-28-2016 at 10:09 AM.
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03-28-2016, 10:20 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,759
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he was weaving in and out down the lane maybe because the rider lost a little control of him. if he makes another improvement he could be real tough.
i am rooting for him, i have been on him since his first race.
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03-28-2016, 10:32 AM
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#10
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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I agree Lambo. He's far from a toss at this point. He just keeps getting better, as the distances get longer. Make no mistake that was a blow out and knowing the trainer that's probably not bottom yet. He probably could run a little better next time. It was pretty impressive, especially if it gets overlooked and his price is crazy.
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03-28-2016, 12:12 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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this horse gets no respect
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03-28-2016, 01:02 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tanner12oz
this horse gets no respect
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I know, right! I think he will be 10-1 or higher come derby day.
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03-28-2016, 03:09 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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prob more like 15-1 maybe more. Best case hes the 5th choice. Figure Moheyman, Nyquist, Santa Anita Derby winner, and someone is going to have a breakout performace. Destin with another nice showing will have more of a buzz too.
Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 03-28-2016 at 03:11 PM.
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03-28-2016, 03:51 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
prob more like 15-1 maybe more. Best case hes the 5th choice. Figure Moheyman, Nyquist, Santa Anita Derby winner, and someone is going to have a breakout performace. Destin with another nice showing will have more of a buzz too.
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Add in the Blue Grass. Arkansas, and perhaps Wood winner as well. I don't think this one will be the proverbial "wise guy" horse either. You will get a good gauge on his potential odds with the Future Wager 4 coming up Friday. Louisiana Derby horses have had decent Triple Crown race exotic impact value in recent years. Both the win and place horses this year have a conduit mare and the place horse has spring classic exotics bomber professional trainer Dallas Stewart. I'll stick them in my exacta/trifecta wagers and hope the trend continues.
Last edited by f2tornado; 03-28-2016 at 03:54 PM.
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03-28-2016, 04:25 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by f2tornado
Add in the Blue Grass. Arkansas, and perhaps Wood winner as well. I don't think this one will be the proverbial "wise guy" horse either. You will get a good gauge on his potential odds with the Future Wager 4 coming up Friday. Louisiana Derby horses have had decent Triple Crown race exotic impact value in recent years. Both the win and place horses this year have a conduit mare and the place horse has spring classic exotics bomber professional trainer Dallas Stewart. I'll stick them in my exacta/trifecta wagers and hope the trend continues.
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I think you will get better odds on GR on derby day than you will in pool 4 futures. The futures pool starts this coming weekend, & GR is fresh in people's minds, but when the Fla derby, & the rest of the big 5 prep races are all said & done, the bettors will be focused on those, & GR's odds IMO will be a lot higher than the future pool 4
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