+++2016 Kentucky Derby Possible Winners+++

[SecretAgentMan]

Love this time of year, the weather is perfect, the prep races are getting down to the nitty gritty, & its time to buckle down & find a few horses that can, & will win the derby.

Will talk about some trends as well. As of now, these are the horses I'm looking at, & could & probably will add a few more to the list after watching the preps, & will eliminate a few as well. After watching Brody's Cause & Smokey Image get destroyed, all I can say is this is, these prep races show us the contenders from.the pretenders.



List of horses in no particular order of liking:


#1 Shagaf: Chad Brown the trainer & Ortiz rides him. Horses is 3 for 3 & pointing to the Wood Memorial. Going into the derby with only 4 starts will be tough, but it has been done, Big Brown did it with 3 starts, but Shagaf isn't Big Brown, so maybe that extra race will help.


#2 Gun Runner: Asmussen the trainer, Santana was the jockey until he faltered at CD in the slop. He's 3 for 4, his only loss 4th by 3 lengths after having the lead in the stretch. Makes me think he got tired on the sloppy track? He had lost that race being chased down by Mo Tom, but came back to beat Mo Tom in Louisiana after a 3 month layoff by 1 1/2 lengths. Mo Tom got into trouble in that race, but that part of the game, wait until there's 19 other horses in the race.


#3 Destin: trainer is Pletcher, horse is 3 for 5, his race at Louisiana wasnt good, it was his only bad race, & Leparoux rode him. When it comes to derby horses, trainers & owners should avoid Leparoux like the plague. He gives top notch horses terrible rides. It looks like Destin has awoken, & will possibly be racing in the Bluegrass, Wood or Arkansas, I guess Pletcher is waiting to see what Destin is doing during his workouts.


#4 Mo Tom: trainer Tom Amoss & jockey Corey Lanerie. This horse can't win 2 in a row. Will be very interesting to see how he pans out in the Louisiana derby in 2 weeks, he's also going up against Gun Runner.


#5 GreenPointCrusader: trainer Schettino, jockey Johnny V. This horse race 7th by 4 1/4 lengths to Nyquist last October in the Bredders Cup Juvenile. Didn't watch the race, so don't know if he got into trouble. Off the layoff, took the lead around the first turn but couldn't keep it as Mohaymen swept by to beat him by over 3 lengths. I want to watch his next race when he goes toe to toe with Gun Runner & Mo Tom. Louisiana derby should be a great race .


#6 Danzig Candy: trainer Clifford Sise, jockey Mike Smith. 3 for 3 at SA, 3 for 4 overall, with his only loss at Del Mar in his first race of career. Want to watch his SA derby race coming up in 3 weeks. Does he have War Emblem potential? We shall see!



These are the horses I'm looking to play in the KD. I will not play the favorite, especially after seeing a triple crown winner with the best trainer in a very long time, if not ever winning his 4th KD.

3 straight years of favorites as well since the point system started, call me a contrarian, but I don't see a Cali Chrome or AP in this years stock. Chromes year was mostly because the other horses were so bad, but Chrome also fit a lot of trends, etc...

Me fading AP last year wasn't good, because the talk from Baffert & others behind the scene was insane, like the horse couldn't lose, & Baffert stating it was the best horse he's ever seen, & I still tried to beat him, but I don't see that in this years stock.

Mohaymen is a good horse, & if he beats me, so be it. Maybe the breeding has gotten a ton better, hence the great horses past several years.

[SecretAgentMan]

If anyone has the list of horses that fit the Buckpasser angle, or the "large heart", x-chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance, please list the horses

12 of past 13 KD winners had the " large heart, x-chromosome" trait.

20 of past 33 derby winners trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequila, Nassrulah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.


Let's get down to business & get the KD winner.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

If anyone has the list of horses that fit the Buckpasser angle, or the "large heart", x-chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance, please list the horses

12 of past 13 KD winners had the " large heart, x-chromosome" trait.

20 of past 33 derby winners trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequila, Nassrulah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.


Let's get down to business & get the KD winner.

Large heart??? First im hearing of this please explain... and where does one get this info?

Im liking Whitmore as a sleeper... at least to hit the board maybe and boost the exotic payouts seems like hes one of those horses to 'clunk up' as some have called it in the past

Cheers mate

[ReplayRandall]

I have OUTWORK, sired by Uncle Mo, trained by Todd Pletcher, who just finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, as a future bet at 225-1:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...25&postcount=3

[PowerUpPaynter]

I will toss out any horse from the Wood Memorial until one beats me. What a joke of a race that has turned out to be this millennium.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I have OUTWORK, sired by Uncle Mo, trained by Todd Pletcher, who just finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, as a future bet at 225-1:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...25&postcount=3

I would bet those odds all day on that horse. He's gotta perform good in his next race tho to point him towards the derby.

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

I will toss out any horse from the Wood Memorial until one beats me. What a joke of a race that has turned out to be this millennium.

The Wood use to bring out a lot of derby winners, but its been a while tho. Go for Gin in 1994, Fusaichi Pegasus 2000, Monarchos 2001, Funny Cide 2003. So since 2004, the Wood has been.rotten! That's a 12 year dry run.

The hot tracks are Santa Anita & Florida derby, & Arkansas is right there as well.

[Huddy Goodjob]

"Oh geez...is it that time of year again?"

This is the question I'm asked by my wife every year around this time. I'm pumped this year...why?... because there is no TRUE standout in this year’s run up to the roses. Last year we saw many of the same horses winning the preps...this year, it’s a coin flip for which one will step up. Not to mention the string of derby favs going on to win as of late…Points System.

Gun Runner is on the top of my list. (pool 2 future wager- bet at 77-1, down to 25-1 at the close, Arrrgh!)

Mor Spirit- was against until his last. I re-watched last one and it still appears to me that Gary is just schooling him for the derby.

Mo Tom- may find trouble, but may also be learning from those troubled trips.

Suddenbreakingnews: Had my eye on Whitemore the whole time, was impressed by his move…but this horse can close, and fast.

Shagaf is intriguing as well. Dead fast track, no one closing all day…and this one came off the pace to win over the pace setter. Was impressed and similar to Orb in FL pulling off something similar.

Shhhhhh…but Adventist didn’t lose ground on Shgaf in that last…but was widest of all…only to loseby on 2. That run was sneaky good…




I’m a bris player, so those figs are important to me for the derby…

Off pace figs alone…Gun Runner stands out. Triple digit E1 and E2 figs in consecutive races…with increasing speed figs. Yes please. Got the pedigree too. Now just pop that 102 speed fig and we are good to go. (bullet work leading up to final prep)

Other stand outs with pace figs that stood out:

Danzing Candy

Destin

Exaggerator

Frank Coversation

Mohayman

Tip: Take last 2 preps…102+ bris speed fig matched with triple digit late pace fig= derby winners

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position

Thanks Sbcaris!

I'm assuming the 6 horses I posted above don't fit?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob

"Oh geez...is it that time of year again?"

This is the question I'm asked by my wife every year around this time. I'm pumped this year...why?... because there is no TRUE standout in this year’s run up to the roses. Last year we saw many of the same horses winning the preps...this year, it’s a coin flip for which one will step up. Not to mention the string of derby favs going on to win as of late…Points System.

Gun Runner is on the top of my list. (pool 2 future wager- bet at 77-1, down to 25-1 at the close, Arrrgh!)

Mor Spirit- was against until his last. I re-watched last one and it still appears to me that Gary is just schooling him for the derby.

Mo Tom- may find trouble, but may also be learning from those troubled trips.

Suddenbreakingnews: Had my eye on Whitemore the whole time, was impressed by his move…but this horse can close, and fast.

Shagaf is intriguing as well. Dead fast track, no one closing all day…and this one came off the pace to win over the pace setter. Was impressed and similar to Orb in FL pulling off something similar.

Shhhhhh…but Adventist didn’t lose ground on Shgaf in that last…but was widest of all…only to loseby on 2. That run was sneaky good…




I’m a bris player, so those figs are important to me for the derby…

Off pace figs alone…Gun Runner stands out. Triple digit E1 and E2 figs in consecutive races…with increasing speed figs. Yes please. Got the pedigree too. Now just pop that 102 speed fig and we are good to go. (bullet work leading up to final prep)

Other stand outs with pace figs that stood out:

Danzing Candy

Destin

Exaggerator

Frank Coversation

Mohayman

Tip: Take last 2 preps…102+ bris speed fig matched with triple digit late pace fig= derby winners

Huddy, good information. The last part where you do the figures to figures out who the possible derby winner is, if you don't mind, could you please do the math, etc...& post the horses after their final prep races? Thanks in advance!

[PowerUpPaynter]

gun runner... meh, dont excite me 1 bit


I question whether Mohaymen has even tried at all yet. Florida Derby hes going to have to so maybe we see the big beyer then but really it dont look like hes gone hard yet at all.

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: These six do not carry Buckpasser in the X passing position: Shagaf, Gun Runner, Mo Tom, Destin, Greenpointcrusader, and Danzing candy.

However, one should note that my Buckpasser angle for the Derby ( although a very strong factor) in many years has NO qualifiers. For example: Last year none of the Derby runners had Buck in The X plus a fast final fraction in a 9 furlong prep race. The year before California Chrome carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. The year before that Orb carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. In 2010 Super Saver carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. In 2003 Funny Cide had Buck in the X. in 1998 Real quiet qualified, in 1990 Unbridled qualified etc.

The strength from the angle resides in its impact value--What percent of the runners carry Buck in the X and also run fast final fractions? The answer to that question is only 8%. What percent of the winners qualified on this factor? the answer is 31.6% (6 winners in 19 years when at least one derby runner qualified on this angle). The impact value is a strong 3.95. Horses with Buck in the X plus a fast final fraction at 9 furlongs are winning the roses nearly 4 times more often than statistical expectation.

If anyone is interested in reading an article that I wrote about this angle let me know your email address and I will send it to you free of charge.

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks for all that information Sbcaris, really appreciate it!

[Huddy Goodjob]

What about...

ADVENTIST SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS FRANK CONVERSATION EXAGGERATOR