Can Mohaymen bounce back?

[PowerUpPaynter]

So guys what do you think?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

He has become a really really tough bet in the Derby.

So much so, that he can be a complete toss.

[SecretAgentMan]

If you like Nyquist, you can't play Mohaymen. No way do both come in the money, just don't see it! If you think Mohaymen comes in the money, throw Nyquist out!

I think we have average horses this year. I've never seen a horse win four G1races & two G2 races (Nyquist), undefeated going into the derby & was only capable of getting one beyer of 100. Insanity IMO, & goes to tell you that this years crop is average at best.

[Redboard]

I'm drawing a line through his last race. The trainer blamed two things: the wide trip and the wet surface. I can't buy the former, but the latter is a reasonable excuse for a horse that has only run on dry dirt. However, if the surface is not bone dry on derby day, he's a definite toss.

[Nitro]

I doubt very much that he has the capabilities of winning the Derby. Nyquist has his number and besides great horses can run any surface. He might get piece but he won't be on top in any of my exotics.

There's an old handicapper's adage about continuing to play a horse that's never lost a race.

[pele polo]

Yes, I believe he is a leading contender, along with Creator.

Every year during this time I see people try to make claims for certain horses when actually the proof is in the pudding. I think Mohaymen has showed us he belongs and is elite but as handicappers we are looking for value (often times in the wrong places.) Mohaymen is the real deal.

[boys at tosconova]

very good looking workout. but it's hard to ignore his last race

[clocker7]

I voted that he could win because of this crazy year. But it would just be random noise.

2016 is a total crapshoot because of slow runners and some off tracks for the preps. It's a gambler's dream race, but not for true handicappers.

I still think that it's Nyquist's to lose. He is tough, has a decent style of running, and has won at four tracks having different characteristics, including an off one. I'll withhold final judgment until some work at CD, but I still suspect that he will have his nose in front sometime after rounding the turn. Then, some other clunker(s) will have to overachieve.

[Andrick]

I just can't give him a pass after a non-effort like last time and then expect he'll be turning things around completely in a race like the Derby.

[fiznow]

When I just looked at the forms before the Florida Derby, ignoring all the media made "best prep ever" and east - west rivalry hysteria my first impression was, there is simply a difference in class. While Nyquist was already a 3 times G1 and Breeders Cup winner Mohaymen was "just" a G2 winner. Now it seems this impression was right. Sure he is a talented horse but no horse to win the Kentucky Derby imo.

[lamboguy]

i am not a fan of either one of these horses, but to get good prices on good horses you need reasons. MOHAYMEN had a bad race last time out, if you can through that race out for any reason you can get a great price on him.

[Mc990]

I thought Mohaymen might be a decent price but with the last work, I can see a scenario where he is 2nd choice if the track is fast.

This derby has the look of a race where literally every horse is an underlay in the win pool... When comparing credentials to odds, who could you be to win right now at the prospective prices? Destin? Maybe. Thoughts?

Liked Whitmore at 30-1 but with Espinoza up, you can forget about that. You'll be lucky to see 15-1. Hell, Twice the Appeal was 11-1 in 2011 with Borel after 2 straight Derby wins. As my girlfriend said after AP crossed the wire last year... "Next year I'm just betting whoever Victor Espinoza is riding"

[burnsy]

I don't think he will win. I voted he may run better. But other than Nyquist that field was horrid. You can't come in behind some of those, I'm sorry. If he's over 15-1..........maybe??????

I equate everything to odds. I need some to like this horse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was as perplexed as anybody after the Florida Derby. Wet, ground loss, whatever. It was such a dud that I can't take it as a statement about the horse. He was just not himself that day. Other than Nyquist none of the other horses have outshined him in accomplishments. He is not a frontrunner and he is not in the wolf pack of closers we have in this derby. He is going to get a perfect trip in my opinion and be right there when they turn for home. But thoughts, ideas, and words are only half the story of what we actually think. When boiled down for me to bet him I would have needed 7/2 if he had won the FD. Now 6-1 is the right price. The last race definitely casts a shadow. Looking at everybody else though there are shadows all over the place. Nobody is really in the sweet spot from any standpoint. Nyquist will be a miserly price with 1 route prep and terrible DI. Others will be up too close or far back. Have big runs on muddy tracks. Horses coming directly from Tam or FG. This derby is a mess! Hope the mess pays.

[Redboard]

The last four years have been chalk city, but for the 20 or so years before that, it was almost a negative for a horse who did well in their in their last race before the Derby.

Only EIGHT won graded stakes preps: I'll Have another(Santa Anita), War Emblem(Illinois), Smarty Jones(Arkansas), Fusaichi Pegasus(Wood), Barbaro & Big Brown(Florida), Charismatic(Lexington), Animal Kingdom(Spiral / Lane Ends).

NINE ran second in a prep in their last race before the Derby(Street Sense, Funny Cide, Monarchos, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Grindstone, Go for Gin, Lil e tee, Super Saver.)ALL WERE WITHIN 2 3/4 L of winning.

FOUR ran fourth by less than 4 lengths in their prep(Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird).

Mohaymen did come in fourth. Don't forget, Secretariat finished third in his last prep.