Is it Possible?

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by BMeadow

An upcoming column of mine at American Turf Monthly:

Going Pro

After a big day at the track, who among us hasn't wondered the following:

"I made more money today than I make in one week on my job, a job that I hate. Wouldn't it be great to quit and just bet full-time?"............

why would anyone consider making a full time vocation of wagering on any pari-mutuel event, until they have tested the waters betting real $, keeping records of their actual bets, and then have a positive roi for an acceptable period of time, whatever that is?

[mannyberrios]

Originally Posted by 098poi

Wow Patrick you must have touched on something here. A rare response from both Barry Meadow and Ernie Dahlman! Gentleman please don't be such strangers here!

If I may humbly add my two cents. By some of your posts I get the impression that you think there are others all around you and on this board who are doing what you want to and that maybe you feel a little "less than" because maybe you can't. I don't know if you can or you can't but I would suggest most people "aren't" so don't feel bad if you can't. (Does that make sense?) You're just like the rest of us my friend. Keep trying and good luck!!

Keep trying, and good luck, That makes sense. Keep trying.

[raybo]

As one who studied the game for 20 years before jumping in with both feet, going pro is a daunting task. The stress is unbelievably intense, and it stays with you day after day. The stress alone is enough to cause most mortals to make bad decisions. You can't afford many bad decisions as a pro, you'll starve.

I quit playing full time while still profitable, fortunately, later I analyzed what I had seen as a pro and found that I had started making those "bad decisions" I mentioned. I'm a very disciplined player/wagerer and the fact that I did encounter these problems only emphasizes the fact that going pro and succeeding is very nearly impossible for the vast majority of human beings.

My suggestion is to keep your job (or find another one more appealing), and wager for additional income, not as your livelihood. I did that and it took all the stress away and I was right back making good decisions, and making a decent profit.

By the way, I drove long-haul for awhile after losing a high paying job I had had for 16 years. So, I think I know what your going through in your thoughts of leaving the industry. I wish I hadn't given up my CDL after leaving my truck driving days behind, that CDL would have come in very handy several times in the last 10+ years.

[DeanT]

Nice post Barry. Great article!

Dave, Jeff as well. Really cool posts with a whole lot of truth. A very difficult game.

[jamey1977]

My thing is solutions. Why should we accept a 5 percent net or a 3 percent net.? 30 percent net is achievable. Restrict plays. Throw out lousy horses. I always said If I could bet every horse who was as good as Isitingood. ( Betting To Win. I Bet To Win. No Frickin Exotics ) He was a great game horse. I could turn a profit. Now think if we restricted all of our bets to great game horses like Isitingood . There was a story about some big player in the 80's who would sit in the stands all week . And make two bets a week. 1000 dollars to win and he would win half at about 5 dollars and 80 cents average . Half winners at $ 5.80 . No we don't play every damn race on every damn circuit, that is suicide and my goal isn't a lousy 5 percent net. Dick Mitchell said he hit 25 percent winners at 10 Dollars. And if he had a losing streak eventually he would reach 25 percent winners at 10 dollars. Losing streaks are the result of playing too many races and yes, the law of randomness is always around. Horse racing is a random event. Just some animals running in a circle. But sound wagers, game horses, restriction of plays. We will achieve way more than a lousy 3 percent net. I might as well work at a hotel than accept 3 percent. I get 30 percent and I want more. Problems have solutions and the solutions are figuring out how to get more winners. Any way possible. If we have to take a 6 to 5. Take a 6 to 5. It's better than losing. Don't we get sick and tired of feeling like idiots while the 6 to 5 destroys the field.? If a horse is superior, and you know what to look for , take him. Throw out your crappy longshot ,sometimes. But not all the time. Be flexible.

[Dave Schwartz]

My thing is solutions. Why should we accept a 5 percent net or a 3 percent net.? 30 percent net is achievable. Restrict plays. Throw out lousy horses. I always said If I could bet every horse who was as good as Isitingood. ( Betting To Win. I Bet To Win. No Frickin Exotics ) He was a great game horse. I could turn a profit. Now think if we restricted all of our bets to great game horses like Isitingood . There was a story about some big player in the 80's who would sit in the stands all week . And make two bets a week. 1000 dollars to win and he would win half at about 5 dollars and 80 cents average .

jamey1977,

You must be a far better handicapper than I am.

Or you are selling a service.

[hitbids]

Dahlman Rose has become one of the best firms researching the shipping industry. Congrats to your son. I used to do business with his firm.

[jamey1977]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

jamey1977,

You must be a far better handicapper than I am.

Or you are selling a service.

You guys are as sharp as anyone. My thing was always on restricting plays. I play on The Santa Anita - Hollywood- Del Mar Circuit. I know this circuit . Been on this thing for 14 years. Just profitable, last 2 years. 70 plays a month. I get -21 wins , 9 dollars 10 cents average. I may have to go into the next month until that 18.60 winner comes in. If we know a circuit and study it. We improve. I don't know about the other circuits. I'm barely starting to study Golden Gate. If we work on solutions and find the reasons we are losing, we will improve. No I sell no service. My secrets are kept to myself. I always said why do they sell their picks when they can just bet them ?. I won't even know my plays, anyway ,until 1 minute until post time. Everyone on this board is sharp. If you all restricted your win plays to one circuit and worked and worked. You can with tight controls and money management get in the neighborhood of 30 percent wins at a 9 dollar average. I attain this. All I'm saying is, this is within reach by anyone if they can just think of solutions. And yes the pro at Sunland Park just plays there, his seminars gave me the idea to stick with one circuit only . If you stick with one circuit and know it and study it, You can get 30 percent at 9 dollars average . You , like I do sometimes, will have to go into the next month sometimes. But when that big day comes. An 18.60, followed by a 12.40 and a 9.80 on just 5 plays. You have reached the hit rate. Know your circuit and study it. Side plays and chasing losses are horseplayers kryptonite. These factors kill all horseplayer talent and bankrolls All plays are official method plays only and remember all unofficial plays will lose ,guaranteed. Don't even try them . Always remember this and you will have a chance. 5 percent net ?. Betting to Win and achieving 5 percent? That method would have been trashed after 4 weeks. There are no systems. But there are - Methods Of Operation. I have known many with hundreds of rules written down. I have about 100 written down myself. This is attainable.

[pktruckdriver]

I am truly humbled by the overwhelming response to my post, this post comes at a time in my life where I need to choose what road to take, and I have already chosen it, but needed some advice from the board, and boy did I get it.


Ernie, I am honored, BMeadow, Jeff, Dean , Dave , Ray, Mark and all you others who took time to answer me here, THANK YOU.

Most of you know me by now as the Trucker who wishes to become a Capper, but was unable to succed as a trucker and well the rest is in some of my posts here, I have been a failure in my business attempts for the last 46yrs , but does that mean I must stop trying and give up, no it don't.

If you have a dream and want to follow it, like I do, and will do, then you must actively pursue it. I was told if you want to be like someone than you must be around those people and then you will become one yourself, some type of affirmation stuff I read once, well I will put it to the test this summer at Saratoga as I am already here, waiting for the season to begin and thus my new life pursuing my dream of living and breathing horse's.

Now I am at Rock Bottom, yes, I am living in the Homeless Shelter in Saratoga Springs, but I am driving a cab 12hrs a day, thou making less than 50 bucks day now , it is work and I am told it gets better as the season moves closer to Racing Season, where 150-300 a day may be possible, now is this not rock bottom?

I am a man of simple needs, yet dream big and now finally after 46yrs will follow my dreams, and success this time is a forgone conclusion becuase I am doing what I love to do, thus my life is happier and more fun, and enjoyable
to me, does this make sense?

If lucky I may get a part-time job hauling horse's around, as I do have a CDL and clean driving record, or become a clocker's assisitant, or a possible freelance writer about the industry,Lord knows I can write forever, just search my name here and see how I ramble on and on, doing a page or 3 should be no problem for me.

Now how do I get into those jobs, right now I am not sure, but when the season begins all those people will be here and then I can ask around, right, or someone can set up a meeting for me.

If anyone doubts my passion ask Dave or Tom and any others who met up with me during my travels and they can confirm my love and passion for this game, some even say they see some real talent in me, well so do I, and now it is time to use it.

Doc Sartin has said to be a winner you need to be a winner , those are my words not a direct quote from Doc, but you get the idea, to be a winner you must be a winner in life, have a winners attitude and winners approach to life and the horse's, well I am no longer going to be a loser, well ( maybe 40% of the time) not in life or anything else either, as in pursuing my dreams makes me happy and to me a winner too. Hope this makes sense, to me it does.


Let me stop here and post this as I already lost my first attempt at a reply here and do not wish to lose another one, but many thanks to all of you.

Patrick

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Originally Posted by jamey1977

You guys are as sharp as anyone. My thing was always on restricting plays. I play on The Santa Anita - Hollywood- Del Mar Circuit. I know this circuit . Been on this thing for 14 years. Just profitable, last 2 years. 70 plays a month. I get -21 wins , 9 dollars 10 cents average. I may have to go into the next month until that 18.60 winner comes in. If we know a circuit and study it. We improve. I don't know about the other circuits. I'm barely starting to study Golden Gate. If we work on solutions and find the reasons we are losing, we will improve. No I sell no service. My secrets are kept to myself. I always said why do they sell their picks when they can just bet them ?. I won't even know my plays, anyway ,until 1 minute until post time. Everyone on this board is sharp. If you all restricted your win plays to one circuit and worked and worked. You can with tight controls and money management get in the neighborhood of 30 percent wins at a 9 dollar average. I attain this. All I'm saying is, this is within reach by anyone if they can just think of solutions. And yes the pro at Sunland Park just plays there, his seminars gave me the idea to stick with one circuit only . If you stick with one circuit and know it and study it, You can get 30 percent at 9 dollars average . You , like I do sometimes, will have to go into the next month sometimes. But when that big day comes. An 18.60, followed by a 12.40 and a 9.80 on just 5 plays. You have reached the hit rate. Know your circuit and study it. Side plays and chasing losses are horseplayers kryptonite. These factors kill all horseplayer talent and bankrolls All plays are official method plays only and remember all unofficial plays will lose ,guaranteed. Don't even try them . Always remember this and you will have a chance. 5 percent net ?. Betting to Win and achieving 5 percent? That method would have been trashed after 4 weeks. There are no systems. But there are - Methods Of Operation. I have known many with hundreds of rules written down. I have about 100 written down myself. This is attainable.

Too bad that you live in California or you could win more, and maybe have more qualified plays if you could get rebates.

And I'm sure you know that if many people were as discipline and skillful as you claim to be, there would be no opportunity to make money, because bottom line is if takeout on California racing is 15.68%, it means that no matter what around $1,568 will be lost for every $10,000 bet by the collective people who bet on California without a rebate.

[DeltaLover]

Jamey said

Side plays and chasing losses are horseplayers kryptonite. These factors kill all horseplayer talent and bankrolls

Although I disagree with ultra conservative approaches, I have to admit that you are on the spot here. 'Action' bets and attempts to get 'even' seem to be the worst for my bankroll and you are absolutely right that this behavior should be avoided at any means.

More than that though, I have to disagree about the 30% vs 5% for the simple reason that a 5% bet could very well present a higher final return in a specific period due to the fact that it can dictate far more bets that will put much more betting capital in action.

The following example is indicative of this situation:

Let's say that in a period of a week a 5% model gave us 80 bets in a universe of 5 race tracks. Assuming we operate in a bankroll of $10,000 with 2% bets (no reinvest for simplicity) we will bet a total of $200 X 80 = $16,000 so our expected value will be $800

A 30% model that will give us 10 bets (2/day) will allow us to put in action only $2,000 with an EV of only $600.

Among winning strategies, the decision of which one to choose should be based not only in their winning percentage but on the number of bets per time and to a lesser extend of their winning frequency.

[shouldacoulda]

Patrick, you may feel like you have hit rock bottom, but you do have a job and a vision beyond that job. One of my favorite heroes was Thomas Edison and he failed over 10,000 times before he made a light bulb that worked. An invention that changed the world in a multitude of ways. While you may feel like a failure I don't think you are. The measure of a man is not what he has in terms of things. It's who he is that counts. A failure doesn't maintain this attitude when life serves him lemons.

but does that mean I must stop trying and give up, no it don't.

I rest my case. Best of luck

PS I heard this quote once and it has stuck with me. Do something that you love and you will never "work" a day in your life.

[bisket]

the trucker needs to answer this question. am i getting on the long black train?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyRZTAmcW7c

[Mike_412]

Patrick, I wish you the best of luck. However, I have to ask you an honest question. If you're presently living in a homeless shelter and making less than $50 a day, is now honestly the right time for you to tackle being a full time horseplayer?

I'm not trying to piss on your dream or anything, but like anything in life, timing is everything. Is now truly the right time for you to take on such an ambitious endeavor?

I wish you nothing but the best of luck and sincerely hope you succeed.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by jamey1977

I always said If I could bet every horse who was as good as Isitingood. ( Betting To Win. I Bet To Win. No Frickin Exotics ) He was a great game horse. I could turn a profit. Now think if we restricted all of our bets to great game horses like Isitingood .

Wow, Isitingood! I haven't heard that name since the late 90's. You know, of course, that he was bred (and named) by Norman Casse here in Ocala? He always used to brag about how surprised he was to get that name through the Jockey Club!


Ocala Mike