How do you determine when to wager?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I am the (only voter, thus far) = "Only play against short priced horses I dislike."

That's the one surprising result of the poll to me. I thought that would get a few more votes.

[djm1959]

i bet the horse that should win everytime. its not fault they lose,they do it not me

[lefty359]

When I use to go to a race book I'd hear guys complain after a race that they were all fixed. I'd tell them if they believed that then that made them stupid for betting their hard earned money.


Then there are those that blame the jockey.

[traveler]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's the one surprising result of the poll to me. I thought that would get a few more votes.

IMHO, it's the only type of race worth playing

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by traveler

IMHO, it's the only type of race worth playing

Are you the 2nd voter?

Care to elaborate?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by traveler

IMHO, it's the only type of race worth playing

It's almost a trick question in that in order to find value on a horse, someone else (maybe multiple horses) have to be significantly over bet. I think it's a pretty good place to start even though I tend to use all the other methods from time to time.

[GBL]

Let's say you like a horse and also like his 4-1 odds.

But you've also driven the conclusion that he'd still be bettable if for any reason odds drops to 5/2. In that case, you may not be as excited or eager but you know you can live with it.

So in short from 5/2 onward he's bettable, with desired final odds to be 4/1. Below your minimum acceptable odds is a no-go, of course.

This line of thinking could prevent any agonizing situation because you're either going to get your minimum acceptable odds (5/2) or not, hoping it would end up at 4-1 by the last tick.

[Mdnspecialist]

Maiden races are the best races to bet imo. Betting to many races is what drives us all to be non profitable in the long run. I know, there might be a handful of you out there who are in the green. Many of us are great handicappers. We bet to many races. Wait and wait some more. Be patient and that race you love will show up. Hammer it (according to your bankroll) and you will eventually get paid handsomely. Do you want to bet small every race and grind out a small profit or loss. Or wait and let 5,10,15 races go by and finally see the overlay or angle of the day and bet 25,50 or 100+ on it's head or mix in an exotic bet. This is hard to do when you're a weekend player. I get it. I skip more races than I ever used to.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Mdnspecialist

Maiden races are the best races to bet imo. Betting to many races is what drives us all to be non profitable in the long run. I know, there might be a handful of you out there who are in the green. Many of us are great handicappers. We bet to many races. Wait and wait some more. Be patient and that race you love will show up. Hammer it (according to your bankroll) and you will eventually get paid handsomely. Do you want to bet small every race and grind out a small profit or loss. Or wait and let 5,10,15 races go by and finally see the overlay or angle of the day and bet 25,50 or 100+ on it's head or mix in an exotic bet. This is hard to do when you're a weekend player. I get it. I skip more races than I ever used to.

Yea you almost have to be ultra selective given the current betting options. I only want to spend maybe 20 minutes at most handicapping and feel like I've covered all of the bases comprehensively with whatever selection I come up with. So give me a shout when they offer match up bets at fixed odds. All of that handicapping time and being tethered to monitors watching odds. Too much like my day job tbh... I think I'll go take a walk now and enjoy the fresh air this weekend. Take care of yourself folks. Good luck all.

[traveler]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Are you the 2nd voter?

Care to elaborate?

Well if we are talking win bets...

Instead of buying a $2 ticket, suppose we are buying cars for $10,000 with the idea of selling(cashing) them at a profit. If the cars you don't resell are the tickets you don't cash - a loss, and the cars you sell at a loss, less than $10k, are your tickets you cash as a underlay.....

The only way left to make money is sell enough cars in excess of $10k to cover the ones you don't sell/cash and the losers. Easy concept - tough to do.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by traveler

Well if we are talking win bets...

Instead of buying a $2 ticket, suppose we are buying cars for $10,000 with the idea of selling(cashing) them at a profit. If the cars you don't resell are the tickets you don't cash - a loss, and the cars you sell at a loss, less than $10k, are your tickets you cash as a underlay.....

The only way left to make money is sell enough cars in excess of $10k to cover the ones you don't sell/cash and the losers. Easy concept - tough to do.

Good thought. Adding on to that, due to the generally low win% the 'cars' we can sell in excess of $10k, aren't even coming along very often. Let's say for every ten we look at maybe nine are no good. So now there's this time element to consider when trying to locate cars. To go even further in that direction, consider any car that you do ultimately find to resell can't cost you more than 1% of your total operating capital or it inevitably leads to bankrupting the business. The time spent looking for good cars to flip has to be weighed against this limit where by sound money management practices will actually significantly hold down the total amount invested. What we need is a way to locate the cars more quickly, resell them more quickly and sell them for a lower ROI but sell at a higher volume for a more worthwhile profit at the end of the year. There are certainly ways to make +ROI but from what I can tell there aren't many ways to move ourselves into that higher volume space.

[crestridge]

What is the M/L range of these contenders that pay: $7-$12?

[crestridge]

Let me rephrase: What is the M/L rank of these $7-$12 winners?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by crestridge

Let me rephrase: What is the M/L rank of these $7-$12 winners?

But perhaps you're talking to someone other than me.

But if you're speaking to me, I am not understanding your question.

Which $7 to $12 winners?

Perhaps offer a quote?

[crestridge]

Imagine that HSH has a process that produces a GRADE from A+ down to D-, and F which represents mathematical profitability, based upon your handicapping.

I could, of course, use the actual tote odds when the horses are in the gate (or whenever) to create those grades.

Logically, everyone would WANT to bet the A+, A, and A- horses, especially if they are high hit rate horses. (A- is the bottom of profitability; everything below that is mathematically a losing proposition.)

HOWEVER...
Part of my predictive process is to determine who the whales are likely to bet.

My belief is that (typically) those high hit rate, A+ horses will be seen as profitable by the whales and will be hammered down enough to remove the profitability.
My experience with such horses has been -4.5%.
When there is such a likely bet down in the race, I typically look for a CONTENDER who SHOULD NOT have his odds pounded.
Usually, those are horses who will wind up as overlays despite being bet down a little.

Typically, they pay $7 to $12, and produce a long term profit.
I call this STEP 5.


Dave--This is what I'm asking about, "they pay $7 to $12"...What's the M/L rank on these winners?