i would agree with you , he has a lot of negatives , but , there are a lot of positives
1)the course - familarity , 4 par 5's (his strength)- if this was a us open or any other major i would agree with you , but , he's probably already snuck in a couple of rounds when the meida was not watching
2)the field - the masters is not a full field , while all of the top golfers are there , the entire top 150 in the world are not - the us open , british open , pga all have fuller and deeper fields , when you take a good hard look at the masters field you could probably only come up with about 15 -20 guys that could win it based on their games (someone like zach johnson was an anamoly)
3)media - while he will have to answer some questions , the tournment officals / members will not let this turn into a 3 ring circus , thus this will be a lesser distraction for him than any other event
Overlay/Underlay - the fact is he is an underlay every time he tees it up , 4 or 5 to 1 is not a steal but it is close to being a fair value (it wouldn't be in any major for the 3 reasons above)
he's 4 / 13 on this venue and hasn't been out of the top 6 since 2004
at 4 or 5 to one he is worth taking a stab at on this course against this field
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