How To Pick Long Shots & How To Win At Horse Racing

[Sinner369]

My review on "How to Pick Long Shots":

I like the contents of the book.......it's probably the first book I read on the actual details involved in looking for longshots for thoroughbreds.

The author systematically defines three types of longshot possibilities to look for in thoroughbreds and they are well defined. I am sure their are other types of long shots but each individual will have their own patterns (I do for harness).

I am mainly a harness bettor and the steps involved for finding long shots is close to what I use to handicap harness horses.........especially trip notes!

To me, the book is well worth the price.......get it for yourself.

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

My review on "How to Pick Long Shots":

I like the contents of the book.......it's probably the first book I read on the actual details involved in looking for longshots for thoroughbreds.

The author systematically defines three types of longshot possibilities to look for in thoroughbreds and they are well defined. I am sure their are other types of long shots but each individual will have their own patterns (I do for harness).

I am mainly a harness bettor and the steps involved for finding long shots is close to what I use to handicap harness horses.........especially trip notes!

To me, the book is well worth the price.......get it for yourself.

I think the author wants the book reviewed on Amazon.com.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by jk3521

I think the author wants the book reviewed on Amazon.com.

I will do the author a favor...and refrain from reviewing his books on Amazon.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ChristianBlake

Yes, the offer is still open.

Just remember the free download date is Monday, May 11th. Any time during the day, you'll have to visit Amazon and search for my book, and then click the "BUY" button (which will say FREE).

Both books will be free to download on that day.

Thank you in advance for taking the time to read my books, and for your Amazon reviews.

Christian...may I ask you a question?

You honestly believe that a horse who finished second by a length in a MSW race is the equivalent of a horse who finished second by a length in a $5,000 maiden claimer?

[ChristianBlake]

For me, in a wagering situation, the Maiden Claimer is worth much, much more. But then again, I play for ROI. Betting 8/5 favorites gets you nowhere in the long run, and turns into a money churn with negative ROI.

It really depends on what your wagering goals are. I focus on profit. That is #1 for me. Win rate is irrelevant. (Also, the book is about finding value plays, not obvious favorites.)

In the Maiden scenario, that 8/5 MSW might win 30% of the time, but that claimer will win too, probably at a lower % of the time, but when it wins, it will pop at 40/1. I'll take those tickets all day long, and stay far, far away from the 8/5.

And, if you hate the book, go ahead and post an honest review on Amazon.

All Amazon reviews are appreciated!

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Christian...may I ask you a question?

You honestly believe that a horse who finished second by a length in a MSW race is the equivalent of a horse who finished second by a length in a $5,000 maiden claimer?

It's" How to PICK Longshots", not " How to PICK WINNING LONGSHOTS"

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ChristianBlake

For me, in a wagering situation, the Maiden Claimer is worth much, much more. But then again, I play for ROI. Betting 8/5 favorites gets you nowhere in the long run, and turns into a money churn with negative ROI.

It really depends on what your wagering goals are. I focus on profit. That is #1 for me. Win rate is irrelevant. (Also, the book is about finding value plays, not obvious favorites.)

In the Maiden scenario, that 8/5 MSW might win 30% of the time, but that claimer will win too, probably at a lower % of the time, but when it wins, it will pop at 40/1. I'll take those tickets all day long, and stay far, far away from the 8/5.

And, if you hate the book, go ahead and post an honest review on Amazon.

All Amazon reviews are appreciated!

You were generous in letting us read your book for free, so...I can't bring myself to write a negative review on Amazon. But I will tell you this here:

There is nothing in either one of your two books which will allow the horse player to SURVIVE...much less profit in this game.

I will give you a couple of examples of what I mean:

You say at the very beginning of your book How To Win At Horseracing:

"When it comes to managing your bankroll, always remember what I call The Five Percent Rule. The rule is easy to follow: you must never wager more than 5% of your total bankroll on a selection. If you have $100 to wager on horse racing, your wagers surrounding one particular horse should never exceed $5. By following that guideline, you can be an average handicapper and still break even or turn a profit over the long haul."


In another part of the same book, where you are addressing the significance of the "distance factor" in handicapping, you write:

"From what I've come to understand about horse racing, the most significant portion of a race is the last couple of furlongs. Quite often, the jockeys will set a leisurely pace around the track, and then it's a mad dash for the last quarter mile. As long as a horse has decent sprint ability for at least a few furlongs, I'll consider it a potential winner at any distance."


In no way can a 5% betting guideline allow the average handicapper to break even or turn a profit in the long run. The only way that the "average player" can survive at the track is by greatly improving his handicapping and betting skills. The 5% betting limit might allow him to remain in action a little longer than he otherwise would, but, if he remains an "average handicapper"...then he will lose his money in due time just the same. Betting advice cannot turn losing players into winners.

As far as the distance factor is concerned, it is dangerous to assume that any horse with decent sprint ability is a potential winner at any distance...and any serious player will be quick to point that out to you.

In your longshot book, you advise against the use of speed figures in handicapping...but the reason that you provide is questionable, to say the least. You say that speed figures are misleading, and that it's not unusual for a horse with figures of 90 to lose to a horse with figures of 60. Now...if you had said that you ignored speed figures because everybody is using them and they depress the odds, then I might see your point. But I just can't accept the reason that you have chosen to provide. You can't place the 60 horse in the same level as the 90 horse.

You say that you are a winning player...and I have no real reason to doubt you. But I can state unequivocally that there is no way in the world that you are winning solely by using the advice that you are offering in your two books.

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by jk3521

It's" How to PICK Longshots", not " How to PICK WINNING LONGSHOTS"

I have to agree with the above..............why are these horses called "Long shots" in the first place?

Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

No. Thaskalos is looking for good advice about longshots that match the promises of the author. So far he hasn't found that advice.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

I have to agree with the above..............why are these horses called "Long shots" in the first place?

Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

No...I am pointing out what I consider to be erroneous advice. And I didn't have to stop where I did; I could easily have kept going.

It's alright to say that a book is for the beginning players...but wrong advice is wrong advice -- no matter to WHOM you direct it. And the longshot book is advertised as a book for the "intermediate and advanced player"...which is a gross exaggeration.

[mrroyboy]

Ok I downloaded the book from Amazon. I will read it and give my honest opinion. Thank you for making it available.

[ChristianBlake]

5% is an aggressive wager, a large wager. While I do make 5% wagers, I mostly stick around 2% to 3%. ANY adherence to a strict wagering percentage, whether it be 2% or 5%, will help the average player who follows no wagering guidelines. At 2%, you can lose 50 times before your bankroll runs dry. Play favorites and that's an inevitable end, even with a decent win rate. Play long shots and you can hit a 50/1 horse on that last wager and you're even again.

Re: sprint ability/fractional call handicapping vs traditional theories

It sounds like you handicap a horse's potential based on the sum of its last performance (like using the Beyer fig as a factor). While there's nothing wrong with that, it’s not how I pick horses. I focus on fractional performance instead.

For example, if a horse was near the lead at the 1/2 mile call during a contested pace, it's a play in my book (even more so if it’s dropping class). And if it lost by 20 lengths in that last race, great! A 20 length loss will scare away players and further increase my payout.

Debating the value of fractional speed is pointless. Horses with sprint ability win every day at every track at varying distances. They defy conventional handicapping logic and, more often than not, they pay at a price.

Re: handicapping goals

My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I don’t go to the track to compete for win rate. It’s all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.

My biggest long shot for 2014 was a horse named Standing Point ($162). That horse defied all conventional handicapping logic and still won. I would have never picked a horse like that by following traditional handicapping theories.

Traditional handicapping = low payouts

Fractional handicapping = fat payouts (and confused traditional handicappers)

This entire conversation is a common debate I have with traditional handicappers. New theories are always unsettling to old guard. And, in reality, there's nothing to debate. People handicap differently, and that's OK.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ChristianBlake

My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I don’t go to the track to compete for win rate. It’s all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.

Christian, here at PA, we are all focused on profit. You must have us mixed up with ANOTHER website that you're hawking your wares at.......

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ChristianBlake

It sounds like you handicap a horse's potential based on the sum of its last performance (like using the Beyer fig as a factor). While there's nothing wrong with that, it’s not how I pick horses. I focus on fractional performance instead.

My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I don’t go to the track to compete for win rate. It’s all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.

Not bad...

You figured out how I handicap and what my prime motivation is...without me even saying anything about my own method of play. You might be a good handicapper after all...

No offense intended, Christian. I just gave you my honest opinion...like you asked. I wish you much success with the books.

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

No. Thaskalos is looking for good advice about longshots that match the promises of the author. So far he hasn't found that advice.

That's not good advice???............look everyone does not have the same taste buds on fashion, food, the opposite sex, cars, houses...........anything!

So, we cannot all agree on Christian book. My own background is mainly on harness races so I know exactly what Mr. Peters is attempting to do and his three longshot patterns (indicators).

I have a dozen patterns on long shot horses in harness racing and they do not always work but they work well enough that I can make a profit but one has to be patience to wait for those types of horses with such patterns.

I commend Christian on his attempt to write a long shot book for thoroughbreds..........in case we all forget..........favorites only come in 30 to 33% of the time. The rest are price horses.

Anywhere in our society 33% is considered a failure.