3RB angle the most profitable in racing?

[only11]

Is the 3rd race off the layoff the most profitable angle in racing?Someone in this form probaly has done a study on this angle..I took a quick look @ 6 tracks yesterday...3rd race of the layoff WITH MEDICORE PPs ran huge...i looked up as far as 2 months ago on weekend races and the angle produced profitable return..
IMO any horse with 2 good races off the 3rd race off the layoff is a tossout..now if the horse has run medicority races off the layoff i will often use..
last year's derby Mine That Bird.....3rd race off the layoff(Funny Cide)
Dubai winner this year 3rd race off the layoff..
Ice Box..Pleasant Prince...3rd race

Mission Implazible 3rd race...
Input on this angle....

[Tom]

If you qualify it.
What were his back numbers? Do they make him a contender today?
Did he show anything in either of the first two back?
Properly used, it my best angle.

[boomman]

Originally Posted by only11

Is the 3rd race off the layoff the most profitable angle in racing?Someone in this form probaly has done a study on this angle..I took a quick look @ 6 tracks yesterday...3rd race of the layoff WITH MEDICORE PPs ran huge...i looked up as far as 2 months ago on weekend races and the angle produced profitable return..
IMO any horse with 2 good races off the 3rd race off the layoff is a tossout..now if the horse has run medicority races off the layoff i will often use..
last year's derby Mine That Bird.....3rd race off the layoff(Funny Cide)
Dubai winner this year 3rd race off the layoff..
Ice Box..Pleasant Prince...3rd race

Mission Implazible 3rd race...
Input on this angle....

Only: Although I haven't compiled specific information on the 3rd off the lay-off angle, I do agree that it is a strong handicapping tool that is certainly one of the factors I have used in handicapping since being introduced to it in the late 1970's. It appears to be an especially strong angle when a horse returns from a long lay-off (6 months or more) and runs a prep race at a sprint, then stretches out to a route and contends until late in the race, and then returns to a sprint, or for a horse that is better going long that will go sprint, sprint, route. I also agree that if the horse runs a huge winning effort in either one of the 2 races after the lay-off, that the "bounce" theory can come into play and although not completely a throw-out, the big improvement in the 3rd race off the lay-off is greatly diminished.........

Boomer

[jefftune]

If I see a big trainer stat for this angle I will take notice. In yesterday's Lane's End at Turfway, the winner, Dean's Kitten was a 3RB, and the stat for trainer Michael Maker winning with a 3RB was a huge 35 percent. I put a big circle around that (Bris pp's) but still didn't bet him, sigh.

[Robert Goren]

I like 2RB with a class better. JMO

[Dave Schwartz]

Only11,

Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings but it is not even remotely close to profitable.

In fact, it is so "not close" that it isn't even worth doing a study to post here.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay... here is dirt (no poly), claiming sprints, older males from 2009.

CLM.Dirt.Spr.m.o.
Races Since a 30-day layoff.
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
0              42,079  4,909   11.7  $1.46   0.95   0.95   0.95
1              25,141  3,171   12.6  $1.44   1.03   0.95   0.96
2              16,230  2,096   12.9  $1.41   1.06   0.96   0.97
3              10,922  1,360   12.5  $1.45   1.02   0.94   0.96
4               7,640  1,037   13.6  $1.63   1.11   1.01   1.04
5               5,514    777   14.1  $1.65   1.15   1.06   1.08
6               4,064    483   11.9  $1.33   0.97   0.91   0.91
7               2,988    366   12.2  $1.54   1.01   0.97   0.99
8               2,227    263   11.8  $1.49   0.96   0.96   0.96
9               1,691    208   12.3  $1.69   1.01   1.00   1.02
10              1,279    132   10.3  $1.71   0.86   0.95   0.96

Total         119,775 14,802   12.4  $1.47   1.01   0.96

[only11]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Okay... here is dirt (no poly), claiming sprints, older males from 2009.

CLM.Dirt.Spr.m.o.
Races Since a 30-day layoff.
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
0              42,079  4,909   11.7  $1.46   0.95   0.95   0.95
1              25,141  3,171   12.6  $1.44   1.03   0.95   0.96
2              16,230  2,096   12.9  $1.41   1.06   0.96   0.97
3              10,922  1,360   12.5  $1.45   1.02   0.94   0.96
4               7,640  1,037   13.6  $1.63   1.11   1.01   1.04
5               5,514    777   14.1  $1.65   1.15   1.06   1.08
6               4,064    483   11.9  $1.33   0.97   0.91   0.91
7               2,988    366   12.2  $1.54   1.01   0.97   0.99
8               2,227    263   11.8  $1.49   0.96   0.96   0.96
9               1,691    208   12.3  $1.69   1.01   1.00   1.02
10              1,279    132   10.3  $1.71   0.86   0.95   0.96

Total         119,775 14,802   12.4  $1.47   1.01   0.96

Not so fast like Corso would say...those stats are 30 days..

[cj]

I love horses 3rd and 4th off the layoff if they meet some other performance qualifications in the return races. However, I would not even consider 30 days close to a layoff these days. I prefer to know the horse has been out of training, so I use 6 months.

[BlueShoe]

An angle that I like, again with qualifications, is; away for 90 days or more, first race back is an even one, not good but not terrible either. Second outing back is much improved, not a winning effort but in the money or close finish, with improved figures and beaten lengths. This gets you a fresh runner with an improving form cycle.

[JustRalph]

I looked at this a while back..........

I am with Dave

No matter the time limits etc....... it is an angle that is not nearly profitable by itself.......tons of other stuff is much better per my databases. enough to not even consider this unless you have some other good stuff to say on the horse.

[GaryG]

Consider also trainer intent. If a horse runs an even race first time back then shows improved speed when raised above his win level. Even better if it is a sprinter being legged up in a route. Then in the 3rd back watch for proper placement, class and distance. This move is often accompanied by a positive rider switch.

[Johnny V]

IMO I do not think it is a very potent stand alone angle at all, certainly not the "most profitable" angle in racing. I do agree that a router's 3rd race back routing after 2 sprints is definitely worth looking at and I do pay particular attention to that. I also think, as was posted earlier, that a 30 day layoff does not mean nearly as much today as it did years ago.

[Tom]

The problem with big samples is you are not betting all those races in real life. In my sample of Lay3 with my supporting factors, I can tell you the hit rate is over 30% and the roi is deep into the black. I consider a layoff to be 6 months.

[ranchwest]

How much of this could be attributed to class drops? If class drops play a big role, then there's even less correlation between winning and 3rb.