Del Mar Online Contest

[charleslanger]

Starts in two days! DelMar Internet Contest

[kingfin66]

Thanks for the heads up Charles. I plan to play Del Mar daily anyway. I might as well play the contest too. My only complaint is that they select the race rather than letting the players determine their own race. Oh well, it's their contest. Good luck.

[Light]

Looking foward to this contest. 7 weeks and prizes awarded weekly instead of waiting for 2 months,plus the grand prize at the end. IMO DMTC.com is far and away the best web site of any racetrack web site in the country.

[Derek2U]

I'm going to SARATOGA for 1 week (part 2nd - 3rd weeks) and
the full LAST week in DEL MAR. Thanks for the contest notice
cause I'll probly win it with no effort.

[Bill Cullen]

Hey, I'm going to play this contest: it's online, it's free, good prizes, chance to go to Vegas to be in the January 2005 handicapping champion contest, free past performances.

[Light]

Just found out that DMR will be offering a $400,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 each Sunday throughout its meet.

[charleslanger]

kingfin66: ...My only complaint is that they select the race rather than letting the players determine their own race. Oh well, it's their contest. Good luck.

I actually prefer it this way-- takes as much as possible the element of luck out of it. I feel that the more i pore over a single race, the less anybody can out-handicap me(ya gotta think this way, otherwise... )
I do dislike the atrocious decline in the racing over there in the last few years... too bad,,,,,
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[charleslanger]

I know y'all know most of this-- however, some things have improved/changed-- and there's so much stuff, that it's easy to overlook / forget something.......


If you have more than one entry, make sure you designate the others as 'for fun only'-- otherwise 'they' may designate the worst-performing one as the one elegible for prizes, or disqualify them all totally.

When you sign up for your 'my profile', you can customize your own DelMar start page-- you'll also need to sign up individually for each segement(and confirm thru email) you wish to avail yourself of-- live video, posting on forum, contest, etc.

There's a note about a new addition to the live tote: Tote Board
Our popular CyberTote. Live odds, will-pays, flash results, pools, and new this year....exacta overlays!

free contest pp's: http://www.dmtc.com/racinginfo/pp/contest.php?c=contest BTW full charts, contest pp's, and race replays always available onsite for the whole meet...... As well the daily workout reports here: http://www.dmtc.com/racinginfo/works/ and trouble report here: http://www.dmtc.com/racinginfo/pjr/ also there links for stats, weekly Bris Notebook, etc.
Of particular note, this about the race replays: Includes "Instant Replays" (streamable) and downloadable replays. Searchable database by date or horse.

I think DAILY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES
TO WATCH by Joe Takach should be immeasurably helpful: http://www.joe-takach.com/ as also his track running profiles...

also for running profiles: http://www.todaysracingdigest.com/ in particular: the week in review(lists biases, troubled horses, etc.), hot/cold stats, daily feature race analysis.......

Pedigree Online has added some new features: http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p..._type=features

http://www.racingdigest.com/ Marty Demer reports a nearly 50% roi for the past Hollywood meet's Best Bets:
Final results for the Hollywood Park meet:
Days Best Bet Ran: 62
Days Best Bet Won: 25
Days Best Bet Placed: 36
$20 Win on Best Bet (Gross): $2,360.00
Average Win Price: $9.44
$20 Win on Best Bet (Net Profit): $1,120.00

web & radio shows: http://www.dmtc.com/live/radioshows.php

Keep in mind the stables that haven't been trying at Hollywood in preparation for Del Mar-- Jeff Goldstein's newsletter used to be helpful in this and other matters... too bad it closed down.

Here you will find 'expert'<g> picks & analysis from DRF & other renowned entities: http://www.dmtc.com/handicap/
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[charleslanger]

With a $72 cap on any win/place/show slot, this contest is about catching ALL 20+ to 1 longshot winners for the meet-- you may have a chance if you miss one of them, especially if this meet fields a high number of these-- but otherwise, realize that more likely: from among the many thousands of entries playing all possible combos you will have quite a few that caught all the longshots for the meet...you will need to, if you find yourself in this exalted group, to rise to the top of it: this means that you will not pass up any sure winner just to take a longshot stab-- you will need some of these lower-priced winners as a sort of tiebreaker among the 'longshot group'.

You will not concern yourself unduly with your daily standing: have patience until the infrequent longshot comes in.

The full $100 should always be bet, on one horse only, and only to win. Possible exceptions: if your selection is listed at 99-1, you could bet it only for place, since that slot may pay close to the cap anyhow; and in the case where you have narrowed down the race to only two contenders that will not be high odds-- you will cash something by playing them both, while your main competitors likely will be focusing on longshots, and you would also pass half of those who think like you but take the loser of the two; by studying the pools you notice that an odds-on you need to bet-- is paying almost the same for place or show as for win.

Make a pick the night before-- in case you don't have time the next day-- you can always change it right up to @ a minute before the scheduled post time-- NOTE: scheduled post time, not actual post time. PS-- in past years the website clock has been off-- according to the official Atomic Time-- i've repeatedly informed them over the years, but they've always insisted there was no problem.... Further note-- in the past the website would experience periodic issues re heavy traffic-- i believe they've now addressed this. In any case, should you experience such an unfortunate occurrence, immediately shoot off an email with your pick(they go by the time stamp on it, so don't delay) to both(for political reasons): marys@dmtc.com and miles@dmtc.com I was so paranoid in years past, that i'd have OExpress open and already addressed near post time... I know it's getting a bit too cute with remaining time, but odds is what this contest is about-- they do fluctuate quite a bit, and they often determine who we wind up selecting.

Because of the premium on odds, i handicap the race starting in order from longshot to favorite, using morning line odds size. (Because if one lets just one longshot winner slip by, they may as well quit the contest right then and there.) I will come up with the following categories: No Chance, Unknown(these can become a play if odds are high and/or the contenders suck and/or are all fairly low odds), Contender. Contenders are then further lumped into: Probable & Not Likely(these only become a play only if all the following conditions are met: they're minimum 40-1, which means they will not pay less than the cap, there are no unknowns at high odds, none of the Probables are higher than single digit odds, AND there exist 3 or more Probables.
Priorities: 1. play any longshot Probable 2. if more than i longshot Probable, highest post-time odds is the determinant. If no longshot Probables: 3. play any Unknown longshot 4. ditto Unknowns as #2. If no longshot unknowns: 5. If there are 3 or more Probables(and by now they'd all be single-digit odds): 6. play any Not Likely longshots that meet or surpass the cap 7. If only one Probable(same as a Standout or Lock in other words), play to win regardless of odds Two Probables remain, both at single-digit odds: 8. play the one or both that are 2-1 or higher.

Good Horsing.
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[charleslanger]

This is what some refer to as the premier meet in the country? Hrrmph!

We'll look for here(would be nice if this race was at least ½ furlong longer):

If any of these should later go on to become champion-- who most likely has the present type of record/profile?
Also, will favor the inside half of the field, closers or pressers, those with the highest late pace figs,,, will further look favorably upon those with good performances over giving ground(due to the composition of this new surface), ditto for closers who show decent races on speed-favoring courses, conversely will downgrade speedsters / stalkers who have shown they can't win on speed-favoring ovals,

PP / morning line / bris late pace / chances

1. 5 88(while 2yo) Can't discount totally a likely stalker on the rail, but hasn't demonstrated closing ability & hasn't even been able to win at venues that favor its running style. OUT

2. 15 99(earned vs much inferior) Claimer finally wins an initial allowance in a minor circuit. And to boot, this is a horse who races quite close to the pace, and has never raced against the type of pace it will face here. This would be a miracle even for Vlado. OUT

3. 7/2 French allowance horse-- its last two races look deceptively good: in the G3 only beat one horse out of 4, & in the minor stake it beat two in a five-horser. Still, vs this field it merits being labeled Contender.

4. 15 90 Speedster who needs the lead alone to win-- this field is loaded with frontrunners & the course won't likely favor his running style to boot. OUT

5. 5/2 97 Closer with good races over both speed-favoring courses and giving ground-- its last race is deceptively good: that was a very strong field and rapid final time. Its profile of a lightly-raced, improving horse is another plus. Contender & probable winner.

6. 5 Unknown with a few minuses: no demonstrated closing kick, cold trainer & jock, Not Likely.

7. 6 90(in traffic) We'll make him a contender based solely on his running style & weakness of field-- though not too keen on him.

8. 10 French allowance horse, lightly raced, colt running vs many geldings are some pluses, though his trainer's an abysmal 1 for 23 with a recently-acquired horse & under 10% for both 20004 and off a short layoff..... Not Likely.

9. 20 Unknown-- not a lot to get elated over.

10. 30 86 Front runner who needs lone early lead. OUT

Good luck.
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[chickenhead]

good summary. If the 1 holds at 5-1 or better, he's my play.

[DJofSD]

#7 Quiet Cash has been scratched.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by charleslanger
PP / morning line / bris late pace / chances

2. 15 99(earned vs much inferior) Claimer finally wins an initial allowance in a minor circuit. And to boot, this is a horse who races quite close to the pace, and has never raced against the type of pace it will face here. This would be a miracle even for Vlado. OUT

Just to be annoying: The Handicapping Magic/TMM analysis.

Pace: Speed of speed - Draw Off.
Fulcrum: Forgiveable Sin (#2)

No fulcrum issues. What makes the race difficult is the presence of two newcomers to the U.S.. #2, Forgiveable Sin, has the top PPF of -0-. The next closes PPF is that of #4, Austin Barber. Although #2 usually races close to the pace, I see him as a Presser or even sustain horse today. I think he will finish strongly today. Today's pace could actually work in his favor if he doesn't contest it too strongly. He's my choice for the contest, although I'm really not too crazy about the race. Did I mention his 15/1 morning line?

Good luck!

[charleslanger]

Not even the longshots here offer value.....

kingfin66: thank you for your insight--

my regular contest entry was the 5 from last night, i attempted to change to 9 Moulin(at 29-1), site doesn't take change, fired off email requesting change...

for the alternate contest lnogshot entry i did use the 2 Forgivable(only 9-1 !)

and i have one more entry of most likely winner regardless of odds-- this one received the 5.....

good luck everyone.
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[charleslanger]

Have no problem whatsoever with a favorite coming in when the contest choice doesn't........

I suppose a little further re$earch into Timeform rating / company line may have merited it a more favorable review(or just if those fields in its two most recent previous races had been large)-- but at the odds? In such a scenario-- where it and the 5 then would've made it two entries in the probable winner list-- i would've dutched both just to pick up a few extra dollars. In my thinking-- trying to beat one probable winner is righteous-- but when there're two or more such beasts it becomes so much more futile: one falters, another one there to take its place...... this is all just hypothetical & strategic musing...
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