betting and money management - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Narrew · 02-08-2005, 04:40 PM

Hello All,

Just recently joined the board. I have a question on betting strategies. I am new to horse racing, but not to gambling in general. I have found money management is just as important as "the system". I have a friend that has been a long time bettor has suggested I started out pyramiding my bets with a win/place/show. He said it would it would lower my risk if the horse I choose finishes in the money. I have also read about dutching 2 horses. Would it make sense to combine the 2 betting strategies?

Another question, I read where many people just place a Win bet and maybe a Place bet. Why is that, is it because the lower ROI on the place/show? I am interested in hearing pros/cons on betting and other money management.

Thank you for your folks time.

garyoz · 02-08-2005, 05:00 PM

IMO it is really important to remember that each time you make a win wager, all things being equal your expected ROI is minus .18, and exotic wagers are minus.22 to .28. (one exception is NYRA with its 15% win takeout, for as long as that is going to last). This is worse than making a hardway bet in a craps game. So the key is to be selective and making good bets. Making good bets (e.g., finding overlays) is what makes the game a challenge, but it also makes the learning curve stiff. Pyramiding the same bet size suggests that all wagers have an equal probability of a positive outcome. Personally, I don't think that is a very good strategy. Bet sizing relative to the magnitude of the overlay increases the probabilility of profitability. This is a very tough game. This is my opinion, hope it is helpful.

BillW · 02-08-2005, 05:08 PM

I think you will find that the best approach lies in the analysis of the records you keep of your own play. Your wagering strategy must fit your handicapping style (i.e. handicap yourself).

Bill

pmd62ndst · 02-08-2005, 05:11 PM

First of all, welcome to the board.

To answer your question, the win and place bets are separate entities and should be bet on their own devices. A place bet should never be used to hedge a win bet. A place wager strategy should be good enough on its own.

A great example is betting favorites to place. That always returns higher then betting favorites to win. In contrast, never bet longshots to place. They never hold their value because they usually have to share their pools with the favorite which drives down the price.

PMD

Bobby · 02-08-2005, 05:18 PM

I've been told by some handicappers who claim to be "up" is that you bet to win. You don't bet to come in 2nd or 3rd. You bet to WIn and win only, not place or show. However, there are exceptions to every rule. And I'm sure there are those on this board who bet Place and show and do exactas and are doing just fine. But for starters anyway, I'd bet to win and I'd only bet 1 horse.

To have a good chance at being profitable, u have to do too many things. That's my view (unless you want someone else to do the dirty work). I would read 4 quarters of horse investing to get started and start coming up with contenders and recording your bets. I don't do the latter and I make impulsive decisions like varying the amounts I bet. It's stupid but I'm just horse racing junkie. I bet $2 WIN and $5 win. I'll crack it one day though.

Valuist · 02-08-2005, 05:27 PM

While you said you want to work on win betting to start with, it would not be a bad idea to work your way into exotics at some point in time. While the takeout is a little higher, the margin for error is also higher as is the margin for reward. When you come across a race where your opinion is more of a negative opinion on the favorites, why not exploit that in the gimmicks? Beyer's book "The Winning Horseplayer" has a great chapter on exotic wagering; a must read.

Dave Schwartz · 02-08-2005, 06:30 PM

Welcome to PA - where everybody knows you name. <G>

First, I'd say that "never" is a word you need to ignore. There is just no such thing as "always do this" or "never do that."

As BillW said, it of course, depends upon your picks general tendancies, which you can only know if you track your wagers.

I must seriously disagree with pmd62ndst's statements. In fact, my opinion is 180 degrees opposite from his. I find that my longshot plays fair very well to place, while low-priced horses do not.

It is a well-known statistical fact that favorites win more often than they run second and second more often than third. Just the opposite holds true of longshots.

But it really depends upon your particular style of picks. Some people find that their longshots can be bet across the board. I have seen some approaches of my own produce tiny profits in the show position, but it is rare. Personally, I cannot imagine making money with favorites in the place position.

Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

pmd62ndst · 02-08-2005, 08:14 PM

I originally got the idea for betting favorites to place from this webpage:

http://turfpedia.com/betting/place_show.html

Let's just say that betting legitimate at-odds favorites to place have been very good to me and if you think otherwise, then more money for me.

One thing Narrew has probably learned from this thread that we can all agree on: Everyone's different. You just have to find your own different.

PMD

Narrew · 02-08-2005, 08:36 PM

Thanks everyone for the warm welcome and replies. I agree with PMD, everyone is different, that is why I posted

Getting different ideas are good. The main reason I asked is that I am new and trying to get ideas on different approaches.

kingfin66 · 02-09-2005, 12:37 AM

Boy, you could write a book on this subject. Wait! There is a great book. You may want to check out Barry Meadow's excellent work, Money Secrets at the Racetrack. It will give you all the info you can handle regarding all of the bets and money management.

"I have a friend that has been a long time bettor has suggested I started out pyramiding my bets with a win/place/show."

I'm not sure what pyramiding bets is in horseracing, but the WPS doesn't sound too good. You should especially never (sorry Dave S. got to say it here) play long shots to show.

"I have also read about dutching 2 horses."

I personally do not do this on a regular basis, but will do it on occasion. If I'm dutching bets, I want big prices and a vulnerable favorite.

By the way, welcome to the board. I like to hear that you're new to horse racing. I wish there were more new fans. It's also good to see somebody else from Washington posting here. There aren't too many of us NWesterners here. I plan to post EmD picks nearly every day for the upcoming meet. Do you get there often?

kenwoodallpromos · 02-09-2005, 01:12 AM

The Nerd pm is correct! Make any and all bets as seperate decisions. They must all stand on their own as a + ROI or you lose.
I bet win and show sometimes based on 2 different systems.
I also use my show system to make place bets but not in tha same race on the same horse.

timtam · 02-09-2005, 06:02 AM

Take a long hard look at due-column wagering. example you want to win $10 a race and the odds are 5/1 you then bet $2. It loses so your due-column jumps to $12. Your horse is 6/1 so you bet $2. It loses so your due-column is $14. Your next horse is even money so you bet $14. You lose so your due column is $28. etc In any example of due-column wagering the last bet is a win Not so in real life. For a beginner due-column wagering looks so inviting and so easy and yet its so dangerous. I know some people swear by it and others swear because of it. My advice is stay away from due-column wagering entirely. Just a thought hope this helps!

Dave Schwartz · 02-09-2005, 10:48 AM

I certainly have no problem with a difference of opinion, especially considering that there is no single right or wrong answer. There are only right answers as the apply to the individual's characteristics.

My point was not that one should bet longshots to show (or place). Rather, it is that if your particular style allows profitable place wagering on longshots then by all means do it.

Personally, I find that my plays are profitable to place at 9/1 and up (and break-even to show; why bet?) and have been for the last 3 years.

Dave

Narrew · 02-09-2005, 04:39 PM

Kingfin66...I will look for the book, thanks. I went to ED a few times in the past (nice place). I had a very good time during the live races. I think I will make bets over the net, but I might tag along with my friend from time to time.

How he explaned the betting method. If I was going to bet $2 to win, then bet $4 to place and $8 to show. So "IF" the horse finished in the money I had a good chance being positive. The down side of course, if the horse didn't finish in the money, I am down $14. He has pretty much said the same as I have read here, pick your spot, don't bet every race. As I said, I am new and this does sound good to me *ducks head*

. I also can see others point of view, I had just thought until I get a track record of my own (to have something to review), that this might be a starting point.

timtam...I agree, the due method does not make sense, if that person is on a real bad streak, its going to hurt. I would rather take baby bites either way while I start out, ie not trying to hit a home run right of the bat.

Thanks everyone!

chickenhead · 02-09-2005, 05:01 PM

Just my $.02, if you don't know what fits you best yet, start with flat wagering win only. All your picks when taken together will show the highest ROI for win (I'll bet), so I don't think you want to be betting 2X as much for place and 4X as much for show in all cases. Once you get some data you could think about making some place bets in certain instances.

Keep it simple, find overlays, then bet them modestly to win. And be selective.