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09-25-2018, 12:57 PM
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#181
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The oddballs, peak and valley, are a bit interesting. Peak seems to play closest to a mild pace. Valley seems to play closest to a solid pace. This would indicate to me the opening 1/4 is more important than the 2nd quarter in determining the running style of the winner.
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I've noticed the same regarding the effect of the 1st call. Could be that a fast 1st quarter sets the stage for the harmful valley pattern, like in the Gimma Stakes at Belmont (if indeed it proves to be a negative pattern)
In some pace methods (Equibase PPs) the 1st quarter is given precedence over the traditional half mile call. Of course, IMO it's best to consider both as well as the final and look for patterns of all 3 calls. The study can show that beyond our initial observations.
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09-25-2018, 01:36 PM
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#182
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
These are the totals:
Code:
Label Count Percentage
Hot 14253 0.29
Solid 14959 0.31
Even 7676 0.16
Mild 8050 0.16
Cold 1422 0.03
Valley 1985 0.04
Peak 506 0.01
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Thanks for doing the work here, CJ....
Average winner's price would be nice, with the following race labels grouped above in differing colors.....or doing each label would be fine also.
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09-25-2018, 04:39 PM
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#183
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Thanks for doing the work here, CJ....
Average winner's price would be nice, with the following race labels grouped above in differing colors.....or doing each label would be fine also.
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I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.
As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.
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09-25-2018, 04:43 PM
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#184
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.
As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.
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Agree with everything you said.....But can you do it anyway?
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09-25-2018, 04:59 PM
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#185
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I can do average winner's price. I personally don't put a lot of stock in that when studying things that are after the break, but I know some do. I'm doing this to understand how the varying pace scenarios affect the runners in them to better understand the running lines when they run in the future.
As an example of why I don't like payout info for stuff you can't bet, we've all heard about betting the first call leader being profitable, but we also know unless you can identify all the first call leaders it is misleading. Much better is how all of your predicted early leaders do whether they lead or not.
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Yep, I'll add it next. Might not be today but soon.
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09-25-2018, 05:24 PM
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#186
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Code:
Label Count Pct AvgWPay
Hot 14253 0.29 13.53
Solid 14959 0.31 11.61
Even 7676 0.16 10.20
Mild 8050 0.16 9.07
Cold 1422 0.03 8.54
Valley 1985 0.04 9.93
Peak 506 0.01 11.29
Nice call Randall, interesting.
Last edited by cj; 09-25-2018 at 05:25 PM.
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09-25-2018, 05:31 PM
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#187
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Code:
Label Count Pct AvgWPay
Hot 14253 0.29 13.53
Solid 14959 0.31 11.61
Even 7676 0.16 10.20
Mild 8050 0.16 9.07
Cold 1422 0.03 8.54
Valley 1985 0.04 9.93
Peak 506 0.01 11.29
Nice call Randall, interesting.
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Cool beans, CJ.....Look like "Hot" Race Labels---> Hot: Gap1 and Gap2 Hot, will be first point of attack.
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09-25-2018, 11:58 PM
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#188
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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My data suggests:
1. Among races I projected to have a fast or slow pace, on average they DO tend to have fast or slow paces according to pace figures. But as we all know some don't go according to plan.
2. Among races that pace figures suggest were fast to slow early, the winner tends to come from further back or closer up as you'd expect. However, it gets tricky to measure impacts correctly. Large fields tend to have faster paces and vice versa. So you have to control for field size to know how much of where the average winner came from was related to the pace and how much was related to the field size.
3. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest DID go according to plan, sometimes the race flow does not follow the pace figures and projections. How the track was playing or whether there was a dominant speed seems to impact that.
4. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest did NOT go according to plan, the race flow sometimes follows the projection instead of the pace figures. That suggests that sometimes things other than the fractions impact the flow.
Getting at some of those probabilities using your own techniques and figures seems to help me with value judgments.
If I'm projecting a fast pace and given how much pressure there is I'm expecting to be right 60% of the time, and 50% of the time I get the projection right the race falls apart, that means 30% of the time horse A, B, and C are in deep trouble. At least I have a ballpark basis for my thinking instead of just "it looks like a fast pace".
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-26-2018 at 12:02 AM.
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09-26-2018, 04:32 PM
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#189
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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What should I do next? Suggestions?
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09-26-2018, 05:47 PM
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#190
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
What should I do next? Suggestions?
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You posted these options:
"We can break it down by specific distances later, add more data, surfaces, distances, etc."
So, you've already got down to between 6-7 F races....Next could be surface breakdown, followed by class breakdown---> Claimers and Non-claiming races...BTW, please do avg. winner price as well, in layered Race labels.
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09-26-2018, 09:47 PM
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#191
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
My data suggests:
1. Among races I projected to have a fast or slow pace, on average they DO tend to have fast or slow paces according to pace figures. But as we all know some don't go according to plan.
2. Among races that pace figures suggest were fast to slow early, the winner tends to come from further back or closer up as you'd expect. However, it gets tricky to measure impacts correctly. Large fields tend to have faster paces and vice versa. So you have to control for field size to know how much of where the average winner came from was related to the pace and how much was related to the field size.
3. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest DID go according to plan, sometimes the race flow does not follow the pace figures and projections. How the track was playing or whether there was a dominant speed seems to impact that.
4. Among races I projected to have a fast/slow pace that pace figures suggest did NOT go according to plan, the race flow sometimes follows the projection instead of the pace figures. That suggests that sometimes things other than the fractions impact the flow.
Getting at some of those probabilities using your own techniques and figures seems to help me with value judgments.
If I'm projecting a fast pace and given how much pressure there is I'm expecting to be right 60% of the time, and 50% of the time I get the projection right the race falls apart, that means 30% of the time horse A, B, and C are in deep trouble. At least I have a ballpark basis for my thinking instead of just "it looks like a fast pace".
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Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.
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09-26-2018, 10:08 PM
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#192
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.
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I can sum up CH's whole post with this---->Τα πολλά λόγια είναι φτωχια.
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09-26-2018, 10:21 PM
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#193
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I can sum up CH's whole post with this---->Τα πολλά λόγια είναι φτωχια.
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You may not believe this...but it's as if Classhandicapper sometimes reads my mind. He says exactly the things that I would like to say...if only I had the time to type at such great length.
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09-26-2018, 10:36 PM
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#194
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
You may not believe this...but it's as if Classhandicapper sometimes reads my mind. He says exactly the things that I would like to say...if only I had the time to type at such great length.
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Stop... ...Stop.... ....You're.... . ...Killing..... .....ME....
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09-26-2018, 10:57 PM
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#195
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Very enlightening! This is EXACTLY the type of pace analysis that I find most interesting...because of its "practical" value.
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So what I posted was not? Good to know.
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