Conference championship round

[BetHorses!]

Originally Posted by tucker6

curious as to why you think this.

I have Ariz and Sea same and Sea went down from +3 agst Car

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by tucker6

curious as to why you think this.

I think the only way the number moves is if Newton or Palmer can't play. Otherwise, it's stuck on 3.

[Marshall Bennett]

I'll go with that.

[ponyplayerdotca]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400749512

Carolina 27 Arizona 16 (Wild Card round, last year's playoffs)

Game was in Carolina in wet weather.

Palmer was hurt, and Ryan Lindley was horrible for Cardinals at QB.

Having said that, Arizona did lead 14-13 at the half.

Newton's numbers were good, but limited to less than 200 yards passing.

Cardinals will be in this game till the end so it's tough to bet either way.

Panthers have been resilient all season. Newton vs. Palmer is the key.

[NJ Stinks]

First play this week is Denver +3. It may go to 3.5 and if it does I'll bet that too. But it could drop too....

Brady is 2-6 lifetime in Denver. Has Brady anything close to a losing record elsewhere? I don't know.

What I do know is that this ain't Foxboro and the Broncos expect to win.

Game on with a field goal in my pocket.

[thaskalos]

I have no opinion on the AFC match-up...but I like Arizona and the points in the NFC game.

Upon closer review...Denver matches up a lot better with NE than I initially thought. A Denver/Arizona Super Bowl is a real possibility...IMO.

[Stillriledup]

Here's my prediction.

Manning is horrible in the beginning, Pats open up lead, Brock starts the 2nd half.

I'm concerned the Broncos are fine with losing as long as they don't hurt the feelings of a legend who is playing his last game w Denver.

Manning isn't really a team player because he wouldn't be ok with not playing, he would sulk and act insulted, it wouldn't be about winning.

Lets not forget that if the Pitt RB doesn't drop the ball on the ground, Pitt probably wins they had all the momentum and it FELT like It was slipping away from the orange crush.

It's a tough call.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Here's my prediction.

Manning is horrible in the beginning, Pats open up lead, Brock starts the 2nd half.

I'm concerned the Broncos are fine with losing as long as they don't hurt the feelings of a legend who is playing his last game w Denver.

Manning isn't really a team player because he wouldn't be ok with not playing, he would sulk and act insulted, it wouldn't be about winning.

Lets not forget that if the Pitt RB doesn't drop the ball on the ground, Pitt probably wins they had all the momentum and it FELT like It was slipping away from the orange crush.

It's a tough call.

Can't they invent an injury for him...as they've done in the past?

[ManU918]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have no opinion on the AFC match-up...but I like Arizona and the points in the NFC game.

Upon closer review...Denver matches up a lot better with NE than I initially thought. A Denver/Arizona Super Bowl is a real possibility...IMO.

Wow we actually agree on something.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ManU918

Wow we actually agree on something.

Yeah. Surprises me too.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Can't they invent an injury for him...as they've done in the past?

I think they won't because they're not smart enough to know they need a change, they'll look at the W last week and figure all is well because they won.

Too many dropped balls due to fluttering passes and knuckleball spins on the football.

That's not going to get it done.

Denver embarrassed the NFL in SB 2 years ago and it doesn't appear like they have more heart or talent now, does the NFL want to risk another whitewashing game where Denver plays with no passion, no leadership and no heart? They know with Brady there's no way those guys are getting blown out, all the NE Super Bowls were great games, no blowouts every one of them was a nailbiter. Will the refs try and get the Pats to win? I wouldn't be shocked if a close controversial call goes the way of New England, too much money at stake and I'm not sure you can count on Denver to even show up for the SB if they happen to win this week.

[NJ Stinks]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I think they won't because they're not smart enough to know they need a change, they'll look at the W last week and figure all is well because they won.

Too many dropped balls due to fluttering passes and knuckleball spins on the football.

That's not going to get it done.

Denver embarrassed the NFL in SB 2 years ago and it doesn't appear like they have more heart or talent now, does the NFL want to risk another whitewashing game where Denver plays with no passion, no leadership and no heart? They know with Brady there's no way those guys are getting blown out, all the NE Super Bowls were great games, no blowouts every one of them was a nailbiter. Will the refs try and get the Pats to win? I wouldn't be shocked if a close controversial call goes the way of New England, too much money at stake and I'm not sure you can count on Denver to even show up for the SB if they happen to win this week.

Denver went 4-0 against the NFC this year by sweeping the NFC North. Denver is now hoping to sweep the Patriots with another win in this game. I believe Denver's defense is tougher than a couple years ago and I don't believe Carolina or Arizona compare favorably with the Seahawks team that beat the Broncos a couple years ago.

As for NFL wanting Peyton out of the SB and Tom in - you really do think the Broncos stink, don't you?


At any rate, the Pats are favored to win the Super Bowl at 2-1 and the Broncos are the longest of the 4 teams at 4-1. (Carolina is 21/10 and the Cards 7/2 at Paddy Power.) So there are lots of punters who share your enthusiasm for the Broncos, Stillriledup.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

Denver went 4-0 against the NFC this year by sweeping the NFC North. Denver is now hoping to sweep the Patriots with another win in this game. I believe Denver's defense is tougher than a couple years ago and I don't believe Carolina or Arizona compare favorably with the Seahawks team that beat the Broncos a couple years ago.

As for NFL wanting Peyton out of the SB and Tom in - you really do think the Broncos stink, don't you?


At any rate, the Pats are favored to win the Super Bowl at 2-1 and the Broncos are the longest of the 4 teams at 4-1. (Carolina is 21/10 and the Cards 7/2 at Paddy Power.) So there are lots of punters who share your enthusiasm for the Broncos, Stillriledup.

My comments about the Broncos are strictly due to their embarrassing effort 2 years ago in SB. NFL doesn't want to repeat that debacle.

[Secondbest]

For what it's worth on vegasinsider they have the pats at -1 vs Arizona or Carolina.
Denver is +3 against both teams

[_______]

Gives Carolina the best chance at winning the Super Bowl at 33%. I'm a little surprised at New England being given the worst probability at 19%.

I don't know anything about the methodology that produced these predictions. Just thought it was interesting enough to share.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/