this could depend on your methodology for 'watching him in the first place.
you might keep a derby horse on until a decision is made, a favorite/fan horse indefinitely, something the public hasn't seen until he shows it etc...
If I'm waiting for a run-back and the horse just ain't running back and is in a long layoff then at some point (couple months?) I get wary of using him, want a great situation and hopefully some positive signs regarding recency(maybe he takes the winter off, maybe he has a nice return worktab...)
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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