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Old 04-20-2018, 03:16 PM   #1
sharkey11
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im getting very sullky

does anyone find the constant prosesion of chalk boring or is it just me race after race of 2-5 shots i know that you must be willing to wait for long shots but ive seen 25- 40 races in a row with this 2-5 crud and its very hard to stay intrested in this sport .
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Old 04-20-2018, 05:05 PM   #2
Denny
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Some thoughts:

There used to be more dumb money in the pools.

Now it's mostly knowledgeable people competing with each other.

Everybody has good speed figures and that's killing prices.

You know only a few horses have a chance in each race and they're taking all the money.

The sport needs to find a bigger audience.

Maybe if the product was priced more competitively with other forms of gambling.

Maybe race conditions could be written to make fields more competitive.

Just a few things that came to mind.
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Old 04-20-2018, 05:11 PM   #3
Denny
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One more thing, or two:

Stop the drivers from letting only the favorites get good spots.

Make it more competitive to get position.

Fine drivers for not trying and letting others get ideal trips.

Drivers are too content to pick up a check, and aren't trying to win.

Change the purse structure to encourage WINNING.

Last edited by Denny; 04-20-2018 at 05:14 PM.
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Old 04-20-2018, 07:41 PM   #4
sharkey11
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thanks for the feedback denny i know that theres more that dont like this odds on every race stuff i just hate to give up my money to chalk eaters . gl sir
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Old 04-20-2018, 09:03 PM   #5
Denny
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It's really getting old, one odds-on favorite after another tonight at Mohawk.

No fun.

Maybe I'll watch Meadowlands and see if it's any better before

Last edited by Denny; 04-20-2018 at 09:07 PM.
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Old 04-20-2018, 10:26 PM   #6
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Not any better at The Big M.

Chalk there too.

Where have all the longshots gone?
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Old 04-21-2018, 09:52 AM   #7
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The main problem harness racing has is the speed and post bias, which is pronounced on half and five-eighth tracks, but also hurts the racing at most tracks. Changing the conditions has been tried and didn't help much. The bottom line is the bikes, not only are they fast and speed favoring, but the drivers sit much farther back in the bike than they did years ago, and, they lean back. So the horses in the rear have an extra few lengths to make up. With the races being so fast, there is no way a horse can rally from ten or eleven lengths back to win, horses can't pace :52 last halves.

The main reason why there are so many 2/5 shots is that the bettor's don't bet the bad posts. For instance, say we're looking at an 8 horse field on a half mile track and the best two horses in the race are the 7 and 8. The next best horse is the one. Years ago, when they used the wood bikes, the 8 would be 5-2, the 7 would be 2-1, the one would be 5-1. Now, the same exact field, the 8 would be 10-1, the 7 would be 6-1, and the 1 horse would be 1-1.

By having such an extreme post and speed bias, the bettors all bet the same horse, which is usually the sharpest inside-post horse.

There are only three potential ways to solve this problem: 1). Go back to the old wooden bikes. 2). Do as they do in Australia and prohibit the drivers from leaning far back in the bikes. Or, 3), stop racing at one mile distance and race a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half.

Longer races change everything because at a mile the leavers have too much of an advantage and they can rip off a fast third panel and bottom the field. At a mile and a quarter, they can't do that, they have to try to slow the pace, and that allows the outside flow to get into position for a stretch run.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:56 AM   #8
sharkey11
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mabey you rember pandy years ago brisnet site used to put out a sheet once a week or so giving the avg. winning prices for several diffrent thoros. tracks why dont harness tracks put out a similar sheet or do they i havent been able to find one .
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:43 AM   #9
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I don't know, but it is a good idea. You can get the winning favorites for each track at www.ustrotting.com, go to results, track statistics, and it has the post position stats and stats of winning favorites. I like to see favorites winning at less than 40%. I'm amazed that tracks that have a high percentage of winning favorites don't try to make changes to cut down that number. The only track that seems to be able to generate decent handle with a lot of favorites is Northfield, which is at 47% for the year. But that's an outlier. Normally the better the payoffs, the higher the handle.
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Old 04-21-2018, 09:52 PM   #10
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Pandy,
I've wondered if the bikes were made to be Higher with bigger wheels, if that would help get the drivers closer to the horse? The drivers are so low, how do they even see around the horse?

Hope you don't mind a dumb question. But, could the wheel base be narrowed?
If the path a bike takes up were reduced, they wouldn't have to be so spread across, particularly on the turn for home. Horses wouldn't lose as much ground going wide on turns.
Maybe this isn't doable for a safety reason, just wondering.

Thanks
D e n
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Old 04-22-2018, 09:36 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
Pandy,
I've wondered if the bikes were made to be Higher with bigger wheels, if that would help get the drivers closer to the horse? The drivers are so low, how do they even see around the horse?

Hope you don't mind a dumb question. But, could the wheel base be narrowed?
If the path a bike takes up were reduced, they wouldn't have to be so spread across, particularly on the turn for home. Horses wouldn't lose as much ground going wide on turns.
Maybe this isn't doable for a safety reason, just wondering.

Thanks
D e n

Well, as the bikes have evolved from wood to steal and then to an off-centered (usually 10 inches) bike, but as this happened, the driver moved further and further away from the horse. The wheel base has also changed and is wider.

The bottom line is, if they used one of the old style wood bikes, like a Jerrold, it would correct all of this because the driver would be closer to the horse, the old bikes were narrower, and much slower. The slower times would allow the closers to get back into the sport, and you would also have those exciting three and four wide moves down the backstretch and at the three quarters, which have disappeared.

Hall of Fame trainer Brett Pelling recommended a return to a Jerrold bike, and he also said that the drivers shouldn't be allowed to lean back.

Cammie Haughton fixed one mistake when he removed the passing lane at Yonkers, and handle has gone up sharply. Now if he really wants to make some noise, he should fix the bigger mistake, which was the introduction and evolution of the modified sulky.

Last edited by pandy; 04-22-2018 at 09:38 AM.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:57 PM   #12
Denny
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Pandy,

To me (an outsider, horseplayer) it's not so much the material they're made of, it's the dimensions.

Is there an organization able to establish specifications for the bikes (wheel size, width of bike, length...) for the betterment of the sport?

Last edited by Denny; 04-22-2018 at 01:00 PM.
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Old 04-22-2018, 02:30 PM   #13
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I for the most part just play Mohawk/Woodbine in harness, which of course is now just Mohawk. I would like to play the big M, I just cannot do both As fast as they run the races I can hardly keep of with Mohawk. I admit it has been very chalky of late. I think I passed like 6 races last night(rarely will I do that). But, if there is no value, there is no value. Do think this will change however. Last year there were many longshots winning, especially at Mohawk, which isn't nearly as speed biased (there were times at Mohawk that it felt like I was betting at Pompano). I think we are just going through a very chalky season right now. There were nights last year that 30-1's and 20-1's were winning race after race (and a number of them were not the impossible to find ones either). We will have days like that again.
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Old 04-22-2018, 08:33 PM   #14
Denny
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Post bias

Pandy,

Since you mentioned post position biases, is there anything that can be done other than with the bikes?

It's absolutely crazy how often the 5 Post wins at the 5/8ths tracks.

Is it because they draft behind the Start vehicle?

This seems to be so obvious at Pompano Park in particular with a Hummer to follow. But, it's also quite obvious at other 5/8 tracks like the Meadows.

Why provide a particular post with such an advantage, and what, if anything, can be done about it???

Denny
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