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10-30-2017, 03:45 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 254
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Racetrack computer generated morning lines
At Laurel Park on the video feed crawl it says :
"Todays morning line were computer generated."
How many other tracks are doing this now; & when this becomes common will it make the ML a reliable reference point since the inputs will be consistent all the time.Human generated #'s are subject to many more variables,and are not uniform even @ a single track.How are changes in the field/conditions accounted for though?
Can a computer morning line be used as a solid jumping off market opener,and the betting action gauged from there on.
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10-30-2017, 06:15 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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It is all that I use.
I've not looked at the tote board to make a wagering decision in just about 3 years.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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10-30-2017, 06:33 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
It is all that I use.
I've not looked at the tote board to make a wagering decision in just about 3 years.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Purely out of curiosity, have you compared your computer generated prediction of the odds to the morning line to see how much more accurate the computer model is than the track morning line? In other words, is it better at predicting the favorite?
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10-30-2017, 06:45 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
It is all that I use.
I've not looked at the tote board to make a wagering decision in just about 3 years.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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How do you tell if your bet has any value? Do you have a minimum odds you will take on your bets?
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10-30-2017, 07:09 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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It may turn out to be “garbage in, garbage out.” I would prefer to see syndicated ML makers, with names that one can trust. I think there are a few here that would qualify.
Separately, with the IRS tax change on exotics, I am really looking forward to Saratoga this year. I was really disappointed when mabred informed me that Eric Donavan no longer does the ML at Saratoga. Eric was really good!
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10-30-2017, 07:21 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
It is all that I use.
I've not looked at the tote board to make a wagering decision in just about 3 years.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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So you're saying the opinion of one person contains more information than the collective $$$ vote of everyone?
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10-30-2017, 07:24 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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10-30-2017, 07:43 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
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From the article:
Quote:
Any morning line can lead some people in a direction. If we are truly in search of something that works perfectly and has no bias we should totally eliminate the morning line.
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Only theoretical, because even if there's no racetrack issued morning line there would still be one available,or made elsewhere.
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10-30-2017, 10:09 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Years ago , there was the National Armstrong Scratch Sheet (great name, back when men were men and you could tell the diff tween them and women)
That's where folks got the morning line, adjusted for scratches and track condition changes.
I'm skeptical it can be done WELL by computer, but considering some of the ML's we've seen in NY over the season, probably not a lot worse.
It's a very difficult job to get right, even IF its done by a pro.
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10-30-2017, 11:59 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
It is all that I use.
I've not looked at the tote board to make a wagering decision in just about 3 years.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Does this include the exotics?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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11-01-2017, 01:06 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 254
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Laurel computer ML
Getting back to the Laurel Park example,is this program created in house,or is there a vendor which sells software to the entire racing industry.
Any algorithm needs to account for a wide range of conditions,like 2yo MSW with many FTS,an off the turf race,or a race with lots of shippers,what kind of inputs would be useful to generate a ML for a full card,is a large data base used as a starting point,and would the ability to make modifications/adjustments be built in to change the process if necessary.
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11-01-2017, 01:21 PM
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#12
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Does this include the exotics?
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Yes.
But I only play exactas and not in every race.
In tri's and supers there is no tote anyway, but not my cup of tea. (Working on it, though.)
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11-01-2017, 01:27 PM
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#13
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
So you're saying the opinion of one person contains more information than the collective $$$ vote of everyone?
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Absolutely not.
I am saying that using a handful of key factors (one being the ML itself) I can do a better job of predicting where the tote would be than using just the ML.
Further, I don't use the tote because it is like hitting a moving target. Make a betting decision at even 1 minute to post based upon "current odds" is pretty much hopeless.
The odds on use are rigid. I can make my value-based selections at 8 minutes to post. Barring a late scratch (which would likely cause me to pass the race), I can upload my bets and just wait to pull the trigger.
More on the "key factors."
If one follows BRIS Prime Power, you can easily see how predictive it is of the final odds.
For HDW users there is PSR and Pwr (an older version).
For Beyer number users, the average of last 3 Beyers also correlates highly.
Put these together, and suddenly you have an odds prediction system that is pretty powerful.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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11-02-2017, 02:01 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Absolutely not.
I am saying that using a handful of key factors (one being the ML itself) I can do a better job of predicting where the tote would be than using just the ML.
Further, I don't use the tote because it is like hitting a moving target. Make a betting decision at even 1 minute to post based upon "current odds" is pretty much hopeless.
The odds on use are rigid. I can make my value-based selections at 8 minutes to post. Barring a late scratch (which would likely cause me to pass the race), I can upload my bets and just wait to pull the trigger.
More on the "key factors."
If one follows BRIS Prime Power, you can easily see how predictive it is of the final odds.
For HDW users there is PSR and Pwr (an older version).
For Beyer number users, the average of last 3 Beyers also correlates highly.
Put these together, and suddenly you have an odds prediction system that is pretty powerful.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Totally agree, Dave.
I have found the public to be the personification of a typical conventional speed handicapper-- impressed by consistent figs while excusing a lower fig for good reason. Checking the resulting rankings of the field after speed handicapping with BRIS Prime Power for any minor adjustments in those rankings, will produce a very reliable line.
I have no problem with NY, but the Parx ML can be occasionally bewildering.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
Last edited by dnlgfnk; 11-02-2017 at 02:03 AM.
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11-02-2017, 04:12 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
Totally agree, Dave.
I have found the public to be the personification of a typical conventional speed handicapper-- impressed by consistent figs while excusing a lower fig for good reason. Checking the resulting rankings of the field after speed handicapping with BRIS Prime Power for any minor adjustments in those rankings, will produce a very reliable line.
I have no problem with NY, but the Parx ML can be occasionally bewildering.
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If the ML correlates with certain #'s than could capping differently generate better returns...
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