i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

The winner of the Belmont probably hasn't even been announced as a starter yet.

How do entries for that race work? Does it have to be by invite and/or entry fee?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Grits

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.

By the same logic...we shouldn't complain when we get a lousy meal in a restaurant...unless we could prove to the chef that we could cook the food better ourselves.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

If my figures were always in line with Beyer I would have never bothered to make my own. Why would I?

I think the biggest difference I've seen between us is that I'm more likely to trust that young, lightly raced horses can improve a lot from race to race where Beyer is more conservative in that regard.

I can think of four really high profile horses where I had the horses faster than Beyer, i.e. out of line as you say. American Pharoah was one, Gun Runner another, California Chrome, and now Justify. The first three worked out really well for me. I guess Bolt d'Oro was another. That one, while Bolt d'Oro has been a bit of a disappointment I guess, has held up very well from a figure perspective..

What does this have to do with anything? I've argued with you before about Timeform using "class" to make their figs, including you, and you assured me that you don't. The above sounds like using class to me, and boasting of spotting class.

We use all the figures. They usually back each other up. When they don't, we toss out the one that doesn't.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Grits

Speaking of what was able to be seen or not seen yesterday.


I don't ever want to read another complaint about Larry Colmus and his race calls!! EVER!!


If either of you think you can do a better job?


Have at it and good luck. Personally, I don't think either of you could have pulled it off.

I thought both Colmus and Rodman did a fantastic job calling the race off the monitors. The weather and the crazy angles they had to work with were treacherous.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The evidence of this comes almost exclusively from horsemen, who lie a lot.

That's silliness. One only has to see how easily horses are injured to know. How many years experience do you have knowing the details of dozens of horses? A lot of these "lying" horsemen have decades of it.

Buy a dozen horses then see the injuries yourself, and then tell those trainers they should've pushed harder instead on those tendons or bones that were about to blow.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I thought both Colmus and Rodman did a fantastic job calling the race off the monitors. The weather and the crazy angles they had to work with were treacherous.

I was amazed. Totally. I thought Larry was outstanding. I didn't hear Rodman, but it's good he nailed it, too. A drunk could've come on the track from the infield and no one would've seen him! (Or her!!)

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

And greed is a factor. Refer to Spend A Buck or Gato Del Sol who "cheapened the image" of the TC, and skipped out of the pursuit for greener pastures. Perhaps their connections thought the dough was in the purses, and less so in the breeding shed (which was true for Gato Del Sol, but not so much for Spend a Buck).

The connections of Gato Del Sol skipped the Preakness because they thought his late running style and the slightly shorter distance of the race would compromise his chances. In fact, even before the Derby, the race they were targeting was the Belmont. They were probably shocked as anyone else that he got up at Churchill. He didn't run in between those two races.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

If I were to nitpick, he missed the drama of the Preakness finish to crown Justify.

I don't think that's nitpicking.

To call "Justify...he's unstoppable!" just as a horse of Bravazo's credentials practically inhales him in a matter of 3 or 4 strides is pure folly. Just more forced, prefabricated excitement that we've come to expect. At least he's using a more guttural tone when screaming at the wire. The high pitch (see the 2016 BC Distaff) was unbearable.

And..."not even the fog could stop him!"? What does that mean? Was Quip pulled up because he couldn't fight through the fog?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

That's silliness. One only has to see how easily horses are injured to know. How many years experience do you have knowing the details of dozens of horses? A lot of these "lying" horsemen have decades of it.

Buy a dozen horses then see the injuries yourself, and then tell those trainers they should've pushed harder instead on those tendons or bones that were about to blow.

Horses got injured back in the day too.

If anything the causation may run the other way. Fewer starts lead to more injuries.

Claimers, where the economics are different, still run a lot.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Statements against interest are more believable.

Smith's admission that the horse was tired was the honest part of the statement.

Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.

The biggest myth that I have found is the notion that an easy win is accomplished with little or no effort thus leaving a horse fresh for its next race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

What does this have to do with anything? I've argued with you before about Timeform using "class" to make their figs, including you, and you assured me that you don't. The above sounds like using class to me, and boasting of spotting class.

We use all the figures. They usually back each other up. When they don't, we toss out the one that doesn't.

CJ can speak for himself, but given he had those horses as very fast and they then went on to great accomplishments, that strongly suggests he was correct when he claimed they were very fast right from the start.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.

The biggest myth that I have found is the notion that an easy win is accomplished with little or no effort thus leaving a horse fresh for its next race.

I expect him to be tired. I expect hin to still be tired in 3 weeks.

This isn't a personal attack on the horse. He will join some good company in failing to win the TC.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

And..."not even the fog could stop him!"? What does that mean? Was Quip pulled up because he couldn't fight through the fog?

I agree...that was silliness. If Sherlock Holmes could thrive in the fog...why shouldn't Justify?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I expect him to be tired. I expect hin to still be tired in 3 weeks.

This isn't a personal attack on the horse. He will join some good company in failing to win the TC.

I don't know what to expect, I just know that looking tired in race like the one yesterday isn't really an indicator of anything for the future.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Horses got injured back in the day too.

If anything the causation may run the other way. Fewer starts lead to more injuries.

Claimers, where the economics are different, still run a lot.

They're often running with injected joints too that absolutely can cripple them in their post-racing life.

I know what I've seen with the same type of stock, trained by the same stick of trainers, and the decline in being able to keep the horses running. And you're dead wrong if you think sitting in the barn or being at a layup farm is what we want.

The one area where you may be right is that racing may be taking care of their horses better than before so stop when they could chance a few more runs. I can't complain about that though. The blue bloods used to take poorly conformed foals to the woods at the back of the farm and shoot them. Culling can be both beneficial and brutal.