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11-12-2012, 01:32 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by 5k-claim
Or simultaneously obnoxious and boring.
What exactly is the deal with that 'Pretty Horse Handicapper' link of yours? Never mind.
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And just how am I simultaneously obnoxious and boring? Because I'm recommending the better value? That's great of you to say about me.
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11-12-2012, 02:10 PM
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#32
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Working on 'Plan B'
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Central Kentucky
Posts: 593
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
And just how am I simultaneously obnoxious and boring? Because I'm recommending the better value? That's great of you to say about me.
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Sorry, maybe that was a bit harsh. I had just clicked on your 'Pretty Horse Handicapper' link, (more or less) read that post, and the first reaction that came to my mind was "obnoxious and boring."
I guess I could have just kept that reaction to myself.
As for "recommending the better value" in the Eblouissante race Friday, I definitely have no problem with that. That sounds like solid handicapping theory to me.
Good luck on the race!
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__________________
'Keep yourself in the best of company and your horses in the worst.' H. Luro et al.
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11-12-2012, 02:37 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
In a normal situation, she should be 5/1 to 10/1. She won't be. Zenyatta has ruined her value. I think it's worth the risk to go against.
I'm not afraid to be wrong.
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Of the three horses you claim will offer better value, two of them are 3x maiden losers with unspectacular finishes in their most recent races. (Weak ROI scenario). The other is stretching from a closing effort at 6f to 8.5f-- another weak ROI scenario-- and while the sire is a positive on the stretchout, the dam is probably not. (Neither sib even tried a route from 23 combined races; the dam herself was 5th beaten by nine lengths in her only route try.)
No way Eblouissante should be 5/1 to 10/1 against that kind of mediocre opposition. Re-read those stats on the dam's other foals. 80% multiple winners, 60% debut winners, 40% multiple G1 winners. The race sets up as a pass scenario, not a bet-against scenario.
Last edited by RXB; 11-12-2012 at 02:39 PM.
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11-12-2012, 04:02 PM
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#35
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EJXD2
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No wonder field size sucks these days with trainers using this MO.
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11-12-2012, 04:36 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IntotheMystic
I don't think she's ever worked farther than 4 furlongs. Perhaps we will see her at Del Mar  |
Judging from that, maybe they are waiting for Fairplex. 
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11-12-2012, 05:18 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RXB
Of the three horses you claim will offer better value, two of them are 3x maiden losers with unspectacular finishes in their most recent races. (Weak ROI scenario). The other is stretching from a closing effort at 6f to 8.5f-- another weak ROI scenario-- and while the sire is a positive on the stretchout, the dam is probably not. (Neither sib even tried a route from 23 combined races; the dam herself was 5th beaten by nine lengths in her only route try.)
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Yes, and Sadler is a positive when stretching out horses and wins at a high percentage with 2nd time starters. The first 2 finishers came back to win from that race.
I understand that closers don't always stretch out. My feeling is to still wait and see how the tote board is trending and take it from there. Obviously, if Belonging starts trending towards 2/1 or less, I will pass.
Sorry if I offended anyone. I did not mean to.
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11-12-2012, 05:46 PM
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#38
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gelding
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,883
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EJXD2
Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including at least 2/month since 9/8/11 http://j.mp/Q8Pp4n |
Hence the reason for me starting this thread.. I wonder how many works Zenyatta had before her first start..
Not interested in betting the race, and I hope to see her run well.. 
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11-12-2012, 06:02 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Yeah with those credentials to the pedigree you aint gettin a price.So what.Don't handicapping prowess us to death.Enjoy the horse and the guy's passion who created this thread.I dig it!
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11-12-2012, 07:46 PM
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#40
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Journeyman
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 78
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Friday at Hollywood Park ( free PPs).
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11-12-2012, 11:35 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EJXD2
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That's why I was wondering if there might have been a string of minor injuries, making them back off and come back on training her.
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11-13-2012, 09:33 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 399
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
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Why? The majority of Z Nation doesn't bet a dollar.
Seriously, I agree and it would be a good spot to play against her.
Last edited by MaTH716; 11-13-2012 at 09:36 AM.
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11-13-2012, 03:13 PM
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#43
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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It will be fun to see.
Most interested in her physicality, and if she can show some solid talent.
She's not going to be Zenyatta, but that doesn't mean she can't be a solid race mare.
I like the training, although there were a couple brief gaps. In what little video they had of her training, it was hard to see much. She looked green, but actually focused better when in company. She has significant gallops schooling from the gate, that are not listed as works on the tab. There is a small chance that one or more of these schooling gallops took place during gaps in the work tab, but I would treat them as gaps.
She does have a chance to contend or win, depending on her talent level.
Belonging and Saturday Nite Ride both are complete unknowns with potentially higher ceilings than the rest of the field.
Chestnut Moon and Playful Humor are both solid enough horses who figure to run decent races.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-13-2012 at 03:15 PM.
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11-13-2012, 05:41 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Didnt the Green Monkey have a similar profile before his debut? late 3yr old first start with a long string of workouts?
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11-13-2012, 07:05 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 399
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Some_One
Didnt the Green Monkey have a similar profile before his debut? late 3yr old first start with a long string of workouts?
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Yeah, but he didn't have a famous half sister who loved to dance..............
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