Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-03-2019, 06:32 PM   #16
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
When judging if a layoff horse can score first out we look at past performance where the horse has been in a similar situation. If a horse came out swinging from a 50 day layoff a year ago but now has a different trainer, can we count on a similar performance?

In other words, is the ability to win off of a layoff have more to do with the horse or the trainer????

If someone had asked me this same question 30 years ago my answer (instantly) would have been horse.

Fast forward to today's game and my answer (sadly) has to be trainer.

If I look at data for layoff horses with the data broken out by trainer, I can't help but notice there are trainers out there who are (How am I supposed to describe this delicately?) working miracles compared to the stats of the better trainers from (say) 30 years ago.

The odd thing (to me) is that when the horses of these trainers show up to race again after extended layoffs I can't help but notice:
  • Many are carrying some serious muscle mass (that they didn't have before the layoff.)

  • Many don't have the workouts in their past performance records (in terms of fast times, distance, or spacing) that would have suggested condition or readiness to compete after an extended layoff in the game as it existed (say) 30 years ago.

My point is the game has changed. Imo, the extended layoff horse of today's game is very different than the extended layoff horse of yesteryear.

Imo, it pays to:
  • Learn to judge condition visually.

  • Familiarize yourself with trainer stats. Be aware of who excels with layoff horses. Imo, you have to at least consider the how and why. Imo, you also need to be aware of who has subpar stats with layoff horses.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 04-03-2019 at 06:34 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2019, 11:19 AM   #17
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Thank you for the feedback

Quote:
Originally Posted by how cliche View Post
There's a few items I'll address from this thread.

Not all 2k mi+ plane shipments are equal.
West to east is easy. South to north is easy.
The east to west and north to south are tough. I like to see five weeks acclimation time for those. Might be the reason the east coast runners don't win when the cup is held at SA. It makes runners like Improbable and Omaha Beach coming up plays against on the double ship most of the time. Must verify who went west before heading east again.

Layoff runners aren't equal. You're onto something when looking for competent long break trainers. Also look for what stage of their career they're in. Improvement happens a lot from 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. Less often from 4 to 5. 5 and up it's washy.

Workout spacing is every bit as important as workout speed. A lone fast drill in a vacuum has less value than a weekly schedule of slow ones. Also short drills often mean less. Signals more often are found at 5f+.

My $0.02
Very insightful information, Thank You
I had no idea about the difference to ship one direction or the other. And I think you are talking about shipping inside the US. Any thoughts on shipping from Europe etc.?

So I am taking it that you think the success from a long layoff comes from the Trainer and not so much the horse.

I will absolutely include the age when evaluating layoff runners.

I like to think about WHY the layoff. What I understand is that a horse hits a peak, peels off a few good performances (wins??) and then has to 'rest' for 50 or so days. A long layoff probably means the horse was getting some additional re-hab such as for an injury. The only thing I know to look for in that case are recent works which are usually slow-ish so not much revealed there except, yes, they can still 'run'. I'd guess the trainer doesn't want to reveal the success or failure of the re-hab.

Very appreciative of the insight. You've given me a couple ideas to include in my fitness metric.

Care to weigh in on the value of tracking 'Furlongs per day' as a fitness measure. I thought it would be good to seek a range so I can flag underworked and overworked horses.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2019, 11:35 AM   #18
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Physicality

Quote:
Originally Posted by rubicon55 View Post
Hi GAKISS, you may find some useful info from Joe Takach who is into horse physicality, form and if a horse is fit by appearance. Here is his link: http://www.joe-takach.com/
I could certainly use some education training in that area. About the only track I actually go to is Keeneland - Which is opening today! - and I have tried gaging a horse by its appearance since you really can get pretty close at Keeneland but so far that has only complicated and frustrated my attempts at handicapping. I am 100% sure it is because of my lack of training and skill in the area.

If nothing else I could formulate a fitness score based on data then look at the horse to see if my results make sense.



Also, I tried the site and followed the link for the video but found Amazon to be out of them. if you hear of a lead to get the DVD then please let me know, I am interested.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2019, 11:44 AM   #19
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Layoff Trainers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
If someone had asked me this same question 30 years ago my answer (instantly) would have been horse.

Fast forward to today's game and my answer (sadly) has to be trainer.

If I look at data for layoff horses with the data broken out by trainer, I can't help but notice there are trainers out there who are (How am I supposed to describe this delicately?) working miracles compared to the stats of the better trainers from (say) 30 years ago.

The odd thing (to me) is that when the horses of these trainers show up to race again after extended layoffs I can't help but notice:
  • Many are carrying some serious muscle mass (that they didn't have before the layoff.)

  • Many don't have the workouts in their past performance records (in terms of fast times, distance, or spacing) that would have suggested condition or readiness to compete after an extended layoff in the game as it existed (say) 30 years ago.

My point is the game has changed. Imo, the extended layoff horse of today's game is very different than the extended layoff horse of yesteryear.

Imo, it pays to:
  • Learn to judge condition visually.

  • Familiarize yourself with trainer stats. Be aware of who excels with layoff horses. Imo, you have to at least consider the how and why. Imo, you also need to be aware of who has subpar stats with layoff horses.


-jp

.

Thank you for your insight. The deeper I get into this it sometimes seems more like a trainer contest than a horse race. Some advice I haven't really followed yet but made sense to me is to stick to a circuit and get to know the habits of the trainers. Heck, maybe we should all buy past performances for the Trainers then glance at the horses stats as a last minute double check.

Trainer stats = Horse fitness?? Not quite ready to go there but your advice to look closely at Trainer reputation, stats is well received. And yes, I do need to improve on my ability to judge condition visually.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2019, 12:50 PM   #20
rubicon55
Registered User
 
rubicon55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
I could certainly use some education training in that area. About the only track I actually go to is Keeneland - Which is opening today! - and I have tried gaging a horse by its appearance since you really can get pretty close at Keeneland but so far that has only complicated and frustrated my attempts at handicapping. I am 100% sure it is because of my lack of training and skill in the area.

If nothing else I could formulate a fitness score based on data then look at the horse to see if my results make sense.



Also, I tried the site and followed the link for the video but found Amazon to be out of them. if you hear of a lead to get the DVD then please let me know, I am interested.
Sent you a PM.
rubicon55 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2019, 06:37 AM   #21
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Furlongs per day

Summary of discussion points so far in looking for a way to score furlongs per day and other fitness aspects as related to Handicapping.

Some thoughts gleaned from this forum and other sources:

Generally more race and more workout is better than less.
Horses can be overraced (< 3 races in 31 days).
Ideal Furlongs per day (WO and Race) is 0.4 to .08 - eqitec.
Previous race less than 9 days ago is a negative.
about 50 days is normal 'resting' layoff.
DSLR more than 60 is a negative.
DSLR 9 ~ 21 is ideal, Next best is DSLR 21 ~ 28.
A recent workout < 15 days ago is helpful.
A pattern of workouts and races is best. approx. 7 day pattern is best, Next best are 14 day and 21 day pattern respectively. These can't be strict, a day or three variation is to be expected.

Some thoughts that are Trainer focused:
Some trainers can greatly minimize the affect of a Long Lay Off.
Some workout activity is under-reported, trainers can benefit from 'hiding form'.
Some trainers are better at getting/keeping horses fit than others. Can they be scored, graded?

Physicality is an area of handicapping that can be employed when you have the opportunity to see the horse. In person at the track is best but a lot can be determined by watching satellite, internet feed.

I appreciate any feedback / debunking / dispelling of Old Wive's Tales, Old 'Capper's Tales, Old 'Capper's Wives(Husband's) Tales or etc.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2019, 07:46 AM   #22
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Fitness Scores Keeneland Race 1

Fitness score calculated based on:
DSLR - Bonus if 9 ~ 21
Recent Workout - Bonus if < 15 days
Workout Pattern - Best 7days, then 14 then 21
Furlongs per day - best is 0.4 ~ 0.8
User bonus - Trainer is good or other adj needed

Attached Images
File Type: png Capture.PNG (20.1 KB, 26 views)
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2019, 04:36 PM   #23
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Talking Hit a BOMB at Keeneland - High Fitness Score

There were others with good fitness scores but they had lower odds so I bet Lantiz and hauled in a Score $47.20 for a $1... Now why didn't I bet $2 on that one.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2019, 04:38 PM   #24
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Fitness scores

Forgot to attach the score matrix

Attached Images
File Type: png Capture KEE R5.PNG (30.1 KB, 25 views)
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-09-2019, 06:38 PM   #25
eqitec
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 184
Furlongs Per Day-Correction

IMO

Ideal furlongs per day should be 0.4-0.6 for eastern tracks. Avg.=4.8.
Ideal furlongs per day should be 0.5-0.7 for western tracks. Avg.= 5.5.

Re: Physicality Observations of Fitness

This is very difficult to do, especially for races with full fields and/or at expansive paddocks such as SAR where it's impossible to get close to all the horses running. For those horses for which up close observations are not possible, you have about 5 seconds for each as they pass by on the way to the track.

I'm experimenting with a paddock inspection app and workflow as shown on the two images below for use on my iPad to score up to 12 physicality traits recommended by the experts for each horse, as shown on the images. These analytics are then merged with all my other handicapping analytics, but never so much as to account for >3% of all factors (unless the horse goes total bonkers in the paddock and doesn't get scratched.)

Attached Images
File Type: png PadockConf.png (129.1 KB, 28 views)
File Type: png PadockConf2.png (133.9 KB, 21 views)
eqitec is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2019, 05:52 AM   #26
steveb
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 722
some great reading in this thread thanks.
steveb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2019, 11:58 AM   #27
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 103,105
Two things-

Barry Meadow/Ken Masa describe a "quality workout" in the book Skeptical Handicapper that shows strong results when combined with certain other factors or rce situations, especially maidens.

There was a booklet on form factors by Tom Hambleton that was a point system for a horse/s condition. Search for a discussion on it at PaceAdvantage. It was called, Form Factors.

Good thread!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 04-10-2019 at 11:59 AM.
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2019, 01:38 PM   #28
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
keeneland

I like the concept of checking off the characteristics. Just reading through some articles on physicality it seemed like some we're 'red flags' while others we're more indicative of alertness / awareness which could be more of an 'enhance. Not sure how to combine all these characteristics into a score.

So now it's your job to go look at all the horses and report back to us.... Just kidding. I know that's a lot of work even for just one race.

I think fitness has a lot to do with the trainer. However I don't think it's a simple as looking for a high trainer win percentage. Maybe we should be looking at trainer past performance s.

My algorithm is coming along. I may fine tune with your addtl detail on F per day. I am limiting to furlongs in the last 50 days. I thought about weighting race furlongs differently than wo furlongs but have not so far. Some trainers seemingly don't do wo at all and just race every couple weeks. Not sure how to score that against a more balanced plan of similar frequency, thoughts?
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2019, 02:02 PM   #29
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,771
Good thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
I am trying to find a way to score a horse's fitness level based on the pattern of Races and workouts it has had in the past 90 days. I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the matter. I have basically been going by bits of wisdom and advice I've heard from various sources and would like to hear more points of view.

I start with a table showing whether an activity is a Race or a Workout, the distance, and the days since the race I am looking at. I also make a chart so I can get a visual sense of the pattern of 'work'. It is attached. I could easily add speed of the race or work and am open to ways to use that additional data in this endeavor.

90 days: Seems history beyond that wouldn't matter much to today's race. On the other hand maybe 60 or even 40 days makes more sense.

I've always heard that a race less than 9 days back is bad, the horse can't recover that fast.

And the above does not apply to a work out? In fact we often see well meant horses with a workout just a few days back.

It is necessary to 'maintain' a horses' fitness. its not enough to have raced them or worked them recently, you also need to work them with one or the other every = fill in the blank= days. I've been going by every 15 days but am not put off much if there is a regular pattern closer to every 30 days. And how much of a factor is this pattern?

I am also interested in the relative general worth of a race vs. a work out in the above calculations.

I've heard a horses last race either improved the horse's fitness or degraded it. Great advice only I don't have much to go on as to which it is. I would imagine a contentious pace battle might be the latter while a boring merry-go-round trip near the back of the field still has some benefit.

I am trying to eventually get to a useful algorithm.

All input / advice welcome.
Ruffian1-Who I believe was a trainer in Md. circuit, posted this enlightening post a while back on how to value workouts.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...97#post2250497 post #16-

"I realize that handicappers need all the info they can get. However, in the case of workouts, you get such a small portion of info, it is IMO, not worth the effort.

Case in point, two horses workout within minutes of each other , by themselves, and everything is equal.

Horse one works a 1/2 mile in :50.
He goes splits of 14,13,12,11.
That is a very solid workout.

Horse two works a 1/2 mile in :49.
The splits are 11,11,13,14.
That is a very disturbing workout.

They both run against each other five days later. Logic seems to say that the horse that worked 49 outworked the horse that worked in 50.
That logic would be dead wrong.

Unless you can see the circumstances of each work, like one worked at dawn before the track was chopped up or right after the break and the other worked at 9:45 and the track was cuppy , dry and all cut up. Or were they in company? Or what was the objective of the work? The list goes on and on.

Another is when you see a bunch of 1/2 mile works and the horse is off a layoff going much further than a half a mile. Is he fit? If you know the trainer, you have a better shot of figuring that out than going by times and distances of works.

Often times a trainer can work a horse a mile but wants to emphasize relaxing so the horse will go 1/8ths in 15, also called a two minute lick, for two or three 1/8ths then go 14 and THEN work a half in :50. You see the 1/2 in :50 but there is so much more to the story. (Clockers will not start timing a horse that is going at a 2 minute click. They wait until the horse picks up speed before timing it.)And if that horse was horse number one I spoke about earlier, that is a great work.

My best advice would be to understand the trainer and what they typically do. Some love bullets, some hate bullets.

Learn the trainers habits and the picture will become clearer.

Hope that helps."


His take on how track superintendents alter the variant/condition of a track was also spot on, IMHO.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2019, 02:37 PM   #30
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 259
Judging workouts

Thanks for the feedback. First off I got a lot out of the link you shared regarding previous discussions on the forum. Only there was a link to another article in that which must be now dead. http://www.mnpaddockreport.com/ Any chance you know another source I can find it?

I want to say I didn't really put a lot into the times and other reported detail about the work. I had always assumed trainers mostly want to darken form wherever they can get away with it and workouts is an area that is very possible as you detailed. And it doesn't mostly matter whether its deliberate form darkening or just what can get lost in the detail of what actually took place. But, you could say most of the same about looking at a race in the past performances. There is a bit more detail and context reported there but you could miss a lot unless you watched the race yourself.

So I certainly believe that you can get a lot more from actually watching a race and a workout and a paddock check. Those activities will always trump looking at data and past performances and etc. My aim for this project is to accomplish some of the analysis with the data that we can get to in a PP. And of course that can always be enhanced with actual observation.

My basic idea is that maybe you can get an idea of the amount of work done by the horse in an amount of time to at least allow you to discount horses which, at least per data alone, don't seem to be getting the exercise they need and maybe their performance should be downgraded. Or alternatively, you see a strong pattern indicating the horse should be in good shape and maybe has a chance to run just a bit outside his ability.

Again, thank you for your insights.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

Tags
dslr, fitness, pattern, workout




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:07 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.